Dec. 26, 2025, 3:39 p.m. ET
The North Texas Mean Green (11-2) and San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) meet Saturday in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl. Kickoff at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is scheduled for 5:45 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the North Texas vs. San Diego State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
San Diego State leads the all-time series 6-1, but these schools haven’t met on the gridiron since 1975 in a 30-12 victory by the Aztecs at the old Jack Murphy Stadium. It’s the first-ever meeting between the teams in a bowl.
The Aztecs have participated in 20 total bowl games, posting a 10-10 record. That includes a 25-23 loss to the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in the Hawaii Bowl in 2022 in the most recent showing. San Diego State has appeared in the New Mexico Bowl once before, winning 48-11 against the Central Michigan Chippewas in 2019.
The Mean Green have appeared in 13 total bowl games, going just 2-11, including a 30-28 loss to the Texas State Bobcats on Jan. 3, 2025 in the First Responder Bowl. UNT has a 7-game bowl losing skid, with its last bowl win coming in a 36-14 victory over the UNLV Rebels in the Heart of Dallas Bowl on Jan. 1, 2014.
North Texas lost head coach Eric Morris to the same job at Oklahoma State. Special teams coordinator Drew Svoboda will serve as the interim coach. Offensive coordinator Jordan Davis also took the job at East Carolina, and no official replacement for the bowl has been named.
For UNT, QB Drew Mestemaker is planing to enter the transfer portal, but he is expected to play in this bowl game. He led the nation with 4,129 passing yards and 31 TDs, including a school-record 608 passing yards against the Charlotte 49ers in a 54-20 on Oct. 24. He threw 4 TDs in that game, and he has 4 games with 3+ TDs in the past 7 outings.
San Diego State QB Jayden Denegal hasn’t opted out, but he is not playing after having surgery on his left non-throwing shoulder in mid-December. QB Bret Emanuel Jr., son of the former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver, will get the start. WR Jordan Napier, who led the team with 48 receptions and 629 yards, is also out due to injury, as is WR Jacob Bostick (11-157-3).
UNT lost a ranked showdown 34-21 at the Tulane Green wave in the American Conference championship on Dec. 5, failing as a 1-point favorite as the Under (67) came in. That halted a 6-game win and cover streak. The Over was also 6-1 in the final 7 regular-season games prior to the league title game Under result.
San Diego State lost the regular-season finale 23-17 in overtime at the New Mexico Lobos Nov. 28, and it finished the season 2-2 straight up and against the spread (ATS), while the averaged just 18.7 points per game (PPG) in the final 6 games, cashing the Under in each outing.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
Watch NCAA football on Fubo!North Texas vs. San Diego State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:31 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): North Texas -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | San Diego State +180 (bet $100 to win $180)Against the spread (ATS): North Texas -6.5 (-110) | San Diego State +6.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)North Texas vs. San Diego State picks and predictionsPrediction
North Texas 34, San Diego State 15
North Texas (-220) is too expensive to play straight up, costing more than 2 times your potential return.
Even with Mestemaker still expected to play for North Texas, and Denegal out for San Diego State, it’s too risky for a standalone play. However, tossing UNT into a multi-leg parlay is perfectly OK.
PASS.
NORTH TEXAS -6.5 (-110) is worth a look, as it tries to exorcise its bowl demons and snap a 7-game bowl losing streak dating back to Jan. 1, 2014.
The Mean Green have a sick offense, posting 504.3 total yards, and 44.8 PPG, with both marks leading the country. UNT was also third in the nation with 323.2 passing yards per game.
With San Diego State missing its quarterback after surgery, the Aztecs are at a huge disadvantage on Saturday.
UNDER 53.5 (-115) is a solid play based on San Diego State’s respectable defense, and what should be a lack of offense with its field general on the shelf.
Playing the Under is also risky with UNT, so don’t get carried away. It cashed the Under in the American Conference championship game, but the Over was 6-1 in the final 7 regular-season games.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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