Fresno State and Miami Ohio will clash in the 2025 Arizona Bowl at Arizona Stadium on Saturday, starting at 4:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers’ advanced college football model predicts Fresno State as the most likely winner of the Miami Ohio vs. Fresno State game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday’s matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Arizona Bowl prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of the 2025 Arizona Bowl 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Fresno State a 65% chance of beating Miami Ohio. Our predicted final score has Fresno State winning 23-19.

According to our model, Miami Ohio (+5.5) has a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 40.5-point over/under has a 58% chance of staying under.

 

Arizona Bowl odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type
Miami Ohio
Fresno State

Spread
+5.5 (-110)
-5.5 (-105)

Moneyline
+172
-205

Total
o40.5 (-112)
u40.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Miami Ohio vs. Fresno State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: