Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 7’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons.
This one smells like heat. The Cowboys bring the league’s most efficient offense to the doorstep of a division rival with turnover swagger and a rookie quarterback who hasn’t blinked yet. Dallas owns the top EPA/play offense in football (+0.187), leads the league in passing EPA, and drops 29.7 points per game—third-best in the NFL. But they’re favored by less than a field goal because their defense is, in a word, gasoline. They’ve allowed over 30 points in four of their last five, and their zone-heavy secondary has been picked apart by every tier of quarterback—from Bryce Young to Penix to Daniels himself in Week 1. This matchup replays that same script in reverse, with Washington now holding the rhythm, playing looser, and nursing just enough playmaking to answer every haymaker. Throw in McLaurin’s potential return, CeeDee Lamb’s reactivation, and a divisional grudge with serious playoff leverage, and you get one of the loudest toss-ups on the board. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 7’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
San Francisco tilts through the air right now. The 49ers lead the league at 291.5 passing yards per game and sit at 82.2 rushing. The scoring hasn’t matched the yardage at 20.8 points per game, so efficiency and sequencing matter. Atlanta answers with a pass defense that compresses windows to 139.4 yards allowed and only seven passing touchdowns. That structure travels, and it forces offenses to stack precision instead of fireworks. Shanahan must choreograph leverage—pre-snap shifts, orbit motion, and layered depth—to pry open first reads before Atlanta’s disguise settles. The script rewards patient footwork, tidy landmarks, and drive starters that steal five clean yards before the defense can breathe.
Mac Jones, quarterback, has stabilized the 49ers’ rhythm with 1,252 yards, six touchdowns, and a 67.3% completion rate. His 7.5 yards per attempt fits Kyle Shanahan’s timing menu: crossers to grass, quick outs to leverage, seams off play-action. Christian McCaffrey, running back, owns the engine room with 60 targets, 46 catches, 444 receiving yards, and three receiving scores. That’s a 25.9% target share on a 74.6% route rate, and it breathes on every money down. Jones can live in hot answers against pressure, flipping blitzes into profit with swing, angle, and choice. The ball must leave on rhythm, because holding it invites late rotation traps and disguised creepers. When the cadence stays crisp, the chain moves without theatrics and the crowd’s murmur turns into a satisfied roar.
Kendrick Bourne, wide receiver, stretches structure with 371 receiving yards and explosive intermediate snaps that punish soft spots. Jake Tonges, tight end, is the quiet tilt piece with 25 catches, 224 yards, and three touchdowns. San Francisco’s profile isn’t brute force; it’s stress through angles, tempo, and formation variation. Bourne’s dig-and-bender inventory punishes off coverage when linebackers widen with McCaffrey. Tonges’ sift blocks and slip releases create third-and-manageable without stealing oxygen from the perimeter. When Shanahan layers the route tree—one in, one out, one over—the defense must choose which window to concede, and Jones simply throws where grass glows.
Atlanta’s identity feels elemental. The Falcons run for 151.2 yards per game, first in the league, and then salt the clock. Bijan Robinson, running back, averages 96.8 rushing yards per game at 5.8 per carry, and he adds 24 catches for 338 yards. Michael Penix Jr., quarterback, has 1,168 yards at 7.4 per attempt with a 62.4% completion rate and a clean temperament. Drake London, wide receiver, stacks 34 catches on 53 targets for 427 yards and two touchdowns and lives in the hard angles between numbers. This offense prizes rhythm over razzle, marrying wide zone with play-action glances and glance-adjacent slants that punish overfit linebackers. When Robinson presses the front hip and snaps the cut, the whole architecture breathes easier and the game slows to Atlanta’s metronome.
The hinge lives at the second level. San Francisco allows 107.3 rushing yards per game and 21.3 points per game, a middle column that holds only if fits stay crisp. Atlanta allows 20.0 points per game and leads the league in yards allowed at 253.4. That pairing turns the game into a possession ballet rather than a track meet. Both teams also hoard the football: Atlanta sits at 33:08 time of possession while San Francisco holds 31:48. Fewer drives, heavier leverage. In that script, field position becomes currency and the first negative play on a series can feel like a turnover.
Atlanta’s pressure picture invites tactical answers. The Falcons blitz at 39.9% and sit twentieth in pressure rate at 19.6%. That gap can backfire against quarterbacks who spit the ball on time. Shanahan will lean into motion, condensed sets, and flare action to manufacture free access throws and to widen run lanes even if the raw rushing number sticks. Expect Jones to treat McCaffrey as the heartbeat outlet whenever heat shows early. Expect screens, leaks, and throwbacks to punish pursuit angles that overrun the hash. If San Francisco keeps protections slide-sound and changes the snap point, Atlanta’s simulated looks lose teeth.
San Francisco’s counterpunch owns teeth. The 49ers have already had four different players post 80-plus receiving yards in games and three reach 90-plus. This offense can locate a weekly hot hand and ride it through a quarter. The Falcons know that and will squeeze explosives with disciplined lid rules and leverage-sound brackets on pivotal downs. That duel puts a premium on first-down success, because second-and-long lets Atlanta sit on tendency. If San Francisco wins early with under-center keepers and quick perimeter touches, the bracket loosens and the in-breakers come alive.
Falcons vs. 49ers pick, best bet
Atlanta just throttled Buffalo with clean situational football and balanced yardage. Bijan Robinson detonated for an 81-yard touchdown amid 238 total yards and seized the game’s pulse. Michael Penix Jr. stayed poised and turnover-light, then closed with drive control that felt repeatable, not fluky. The Falcons also travel with a defense that ranks fifth in passing touchdowns allowed and refuses busted coverages. That profile doesn’t fade in clear weather, and it travels with field-position discipline.
Now the lean turns into the pick. San Francisco’s four wins came by a combined thirteen points, which shrinks late in one-score scripts. They’ve stayed below twenty-two points in four of six, and their red-zone clip lags the yardage. The turnover tide also tilts; Atlanta sits on the plus side while San Francisco has bled possessions and takeaways, including a stretch with zero interceptions. That math matters when possessions shrink and one short field can swing the ledger. Momentum isn’t a mood here; it’s a repeatable set of edges: run-game leverage, situational defense, and clean quarterback stewardship.
The quarterback dialog rides cadence, and that cadence favors Atlanta’s construction. Mac Jones has stacked yardage, but the 49ers’ points per game lag because finishing drives has sputtered. Penix holds his shape, throws on schedule, and takes the cheap profit when linebackers overplay flow. That fits Raheem Morris’ script: stay on schedule, ride wide zone, and puncture the middle with glance and stick when second-and-medium arrives. If San Francisco leans harder into Christian McCaffrey as the pressure answer, Atlanta’s underneath discipline still forces threes instead of sevens.
The trenches will determine tone, and Atlanta’s tone carries ballast. San Francisco continues to chase balance while sitting near the basement in rushing output, which hands more weight to timing routes and protection integrity. Robinson’s tempo and cut discipline punish overfit fronts, then slow the entire evening to Atlanta’s metronome. In goal-to-go, the Falcons have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all season, so every short-yardage snap becomes argument and rebuttal. Pad level, not pyrotechnics, writes the scoreboard.
I expect Kyle Shanahan to dust more under-center play-action and screen sequencing to tame pressure. I expect Morris to feed early-down wide zone, then pivot to Drake London on rhythm throws that turn eight yards into nineteen. Each coordinator will hunt second windows, not just first reads, and each sideline understands the clock is a weapon. But Atlanta’s rhythm pairs with recent proof: two straight wins, a playoff-feel dispatch of Buffalo, and a defense that smothers explosives without gifts.
I’m on the Falcons moneyline. The situational data, the turnover lean, and Atlanta’s run-first ballast line up with the recent tape. Ride the form, trust the structure, and live with the dog in a compressed-possession game.
Final pick: Falcons moneyline, and my total still leans u47.5.
Projected score: Falcons 23, 49ers 20.
Best bet: Falcons (+100) at 49ers
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For a prop lean, Christian McCaffrey over 42.5 receiving yards fits the construction, the blitz profile, and the quarterback’s answers: he leads San Francisco with 60 targets, 46 catches, and 444 receiving yards—that’s 74.0 per game on a 25.9% target share with a 74.6% route rate—and he’s cleared 52+ yards in every game with logs of 73/52/88/92/82/57, while Mac Jones delivers on-time throws at 67.3% with 7.5 YPA against an Atlanta defense that blitzes 39.9% but converts only 19.6% pressure and concedes short outlets even while holding foes to 139.4 pass yards and just seven passing TDs. If you want a second sprinkle, Bijan Robinson over 35.5 receiving yards aligns with his 24 receptions on 31 targets and 338 receiving yards (67.6 per game), plus last week’s 8 targets for 6/68, all inside an Atlanta script that marries wide zone to play-action checkdowns; against a San Francisco unit allowing 214.3 pass yards per game and living in middle-of-the-pack coverage, Robinson’s angle routes and screens should stay active when linebackers widen to the run. In a game that prizes patience, third-down poise (ATL 32.1% allowed; SF 33.8%) and time-of-possession heft (ATL 33:08; SF 31:48) funnel volume to backs as pressure releases, so receptions become yardage, not window dressing.
Best prop lean: Christian McCaffrey o44.5 receiving yards (-115)
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