Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn’t just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I’ll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.
Last we went 3-4, losing 1.18 units. The team shots had a rare bad night, with Florida dominating SF%, but falling short of a big +210 30+ prop. Artturi Lehkonen also couldn’t get in on the 8 goals Colorado put up. Overall, that brings the season record to 56–47 for +11.2 units. Some healthy ups and downs. Let’s make tonight a nice rebound!
San Jose Sharks 1+ Power Play Goal (+100, 1.2u)
San Jose quietly owns the 3rd-best power play in the league over the past month, averaging 0.92 power-play goals per game in that span. This is a spot where the price simply doesn’t reflect current form. This play is driven more by San Jose’s improvement than by their opponent, but the matchup still helps. Washington has averaged 3.3 power-play opportunities against per game over the past month, ranking bottom eighth in the league. That’s more than enough volume for a red-hot unit to convert at least once.
What really stands out is the pricing. At +100, this line is comparable to teams like Vancouver, Philadelphia, Winnipeg, Calgary, and the Islanders, all of whom have been below average in power-play production over the same stretch. That’s a clear mispricing when you compare recent performance.
I did consider a full top-unit stack (Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund, Alexander Wennberg, and Dmitry Orlov), especially with that group seeing over 70% of the power-play time during this hot streak. But the individual prices simply weren’t attractive — Celebrini alone is sitting around +115, which removes most of the value. Add in the fact that Adam Gaudette and the second unit have contributed to four power-play goals over the past month, and the team-level prop becomes the sharper angle. This is the best way to capture the upside without overpaying for individual names.
Marcus Pettersson 2+ Blocks (-150, 1u) & 3+ Blocks (+205, 0.3u)
Pettersson draws one of the better environments on the slate for a defenseman block ladder. Columbus ranks top five in the NHL in shot attempts, which naturally translates to being among the league leaders in blocks against. They generate volume, fire pucks through (or at) traffic, and are perfectly willing to shoot into bodies if lanes aren’t clean.
That’s exactly where Pettersson thrives. He plays the role of a true defensive defenseman, regularly starting shifts in his own zone and being relied upon to absorb pressure. Vancouver has also allowed plenty of shot attempts against during their recent road trip, creating consistent block volume opportunities.
The recent results support the spot. Pettersson has recorded 2+ blocks in four of his past five games and 3+ blocks in two of those, seeing the second most ice time amongst all Canucks. Even more encouraging is what similar archetype defensemen have done against Columbus. In recent matchups. Kevin Bahl and Yan Kuznetsov in similar roles got 2+ each in the last game. Sergachev and Durzi had 3+ each the game prior, while Jeremy Lauzon and Dylan Coghlan got 3+ each in their matchup against the Blue Jackets.
The volume is there, the role is there, and the matchup supports it. This is a strong ladder spot where both the 2+ and 3+ prices make sense.
PIT Team Shots – Synthetic 29 Line via Market Discrepancy
PIT Under 28.5 Team Shots (–118, 5.7u) AND PIT 30+ Team Shots (+210, 2.8u)
This is another example of using sportsbook pricing inefficiencies to our advantage rather than simply betting one side of a line. I love the under on its own, but the discrepancy between BetRivers and FanDuel creates an opportunity to effectively build a synthetic “not exactly 29 shots” position at a massive edge.
By pairing these two bets, we’re functionally betting against Pittsburgh landing on exactly 29 shots. If they finish with 28 or fewer, we profit strongly. If they reach 30 or more, we still profit. The only losing outcome is exactly 29 shots — a narrow window that is being priced by the market as far more likely than it actually is. Structurally, we’re getting this synthetic line at roughly –630 implied, when in reality it should be closer to –1200 based on historical distribution.
From a pure hockey standpoint, the matchup also supports the under. Pittsburgh has been outshooting teams lately, but they run directly into a Flyers team that consistently drags games into low-event environments. Philadelphia has been involved in some of the lowest shot volume games in the league, even in contests where they’re being outplayed territorially. Opponents have reached 29 or more shots just twice in Philadelphia’s last 15 games. That’s an incredibly strong trend, and one that aligns with the Flyers’ structure, pace control, and willingness to collapse defensively.
The ideal outcome here is Pittsburgh finishing with the under. The 30+ bet simply acts as insurance in case Pittsburgh’s recent shooting surge breaks through an otherwise restrictive matchup environment.
UTA Team Shots – Guaranteed ROI via Market Discrepancy
UTA Under 29.5 Team Shots (–124, 6u) AND UTA 30+ Team Shots (+155, 4.25u)
This is another pure pricing inefficiency between sportsbooks, and this time it creates something even better than a synthetic line, it creates guaranteed profit. By taking both sides at these prices, we are locking in a 5.7% ROI in under 24 hours, regardless of the game outcome. There is no hockey outcome where this combination loses money. Opportunities like this don’t appear often, but when they do, they should be attacked aggressively.
This column isn’t just about sharing picks; it’s about finding ways to make profit while betting on hockey and we’ll take guaranteed profit any day.
There’s genuinely no need to overanalyze the on-ice matchup here, but for what it’s worth, Utah projects well in this spot anyway. They should control possession against Dallas. If these prices are still available when you’re reading this, take advantage. If the lines have moved, always do the math yourself before entering both sides to confirm that the arbitrage still exists.
David Pastrnak 4+ Shots (-108, 1u) & 5+ Shots (+205, 0.3u)
Pastrnak continues to profile as one of the most reliable volume shooters in the league, even if his raw SOG averages this season don’t fully reflect it. Over his last 10 games, he ranks 3rd in the NHL in shot attempts, and over his last five games, he ranks 1st overall. The process remains elite. While his season-long shots on goal per game sits at 3.5, that number has climbed to 4.4 over his past five games, which aligns much more closely with his underlying volume. The attempts are there, the opportunity is there, and the matchup helps convert those attempts into shots on net.
Seattle is a shot-friendly opponent, ranking bottom 10 in shots allowed both on the season and over their last 10 games. They allow perimeter volume and struggle to suppress entries cleanly.
Pasta has cleared 4+ shots in four of his last five games, and 5+ in three of those. The -108 price on 4+ is simply too soft given his recent volume, and the +205 on 5+ is a strong secondary sprinkle based on both usage and trend. Player shot overs haven’t been my strongest category this season, but this is the exact type of profile I’m willing to stay aggressive on: elite shooter, elite volume, and a favorable opponent.
Alex Iafallo 1+ Point (+163, 0.8u)
Iafallo has quietly earned a promotion to Winnipeg’s top line alongside Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, and that alone creates immediate value at this price. Even in a season where the Jets’ overall offense has been inconsistent, that duo continues to drive elite results at even strength.
Iafallo is now in the perfect position to benefit from that environment. He’s not being asked to carry the line — he’s being asked to complement it, retrieve pucks, and get to scoring areas. That role often leads to secondary assists, rebounds, and opportunistic points, which is exactly what we want when targeting plus-money point props. He’s already converted on this opportunity, recording a point in three of his last four games, and the market hasn’t adjusted to his deployment change.
While he remains off the top power-play unit, that unit has struggled to generate consistent production anyway, which further shifts value toward even-strength correlation rather than PPP exposure. At +163, this is simply a mispriced role-based value play.
Ryan Greene 1+ Point (+125, 0.6u) & PPP (+700, 0.1u)
This is another role-driven value play. Greene has recently been elevated to Chicago’s top line and top power-play unit alongside Connor Bedard, which is exactly the kind of deployment that sportsbooks are slow to fully price in.
Any skater riding shotgun with Bedard immediately becomes more dangerous offensively. Bedard drives shot volume, creates high-danger chances, and consistently pulls multiple defenders toward him, which opens up space for his linemates to collect secondary points and tap-in opportunities.
The power-play role is especially important here. Chicago’s top unit has quietly been one of the more efficient groups in the league, ranking top 10 in power-play conversion, and Greene is now directly involved in that environment rather than watching from PP2.
At +125 for a point, the market is still pricing Greene like a bottom-six player instead of someone with first-line and PP1 exposure. That’s a gap worth exploiting. The +700 PPP is a small, high-upside sprinkle that reflects the same logic—if Chicago scores with the man advantage, Greene now has a legitimate path to being involved.
Good luck if you’re tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday’s column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you’re willing to lose.
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