Don’t hold your breath waiting for the Sacramento Kings to publicly declare, “We are tanking!” The NBA frowns on such behavior, and besides, GM Scott Perry has been reluctant to even use the word “rebuild” when discussing this season.
But a recent report from Sactown Sports’ Matt George that the Sacramento Kings are keeping a wishful eye on AJ Dybantsa gives us a clear idea of what this year is really about. For a shot at AJ Dybantsa, the Sacramento Kings will almost certainly need to have one of the top three picks in this June’s draft.
The Sacramento Kings have spent the first half of the season hovering in or around the league’s bottom three spots in the standings. Entering the Draft Lottery, the three bottom teams get the best shot at the top pick and the best shot at a top-three pick.
Since 2019, those three teams have each had a 52.1% chance at a Top 4 pick and a 14% chance at the first pick.
The Sacramento Kings have complicated all this by, of all things, starting to win. A four-game winning streak pushed them out of the bottom three.
Fans who loathe tanking are quick to point out that finishing with one of the three worst records guarantees nothing. While all lottery teams have a shot at a top-three pick, the sheer math of it says this: the more games you win, the lower your odds of earning a top pick.
So, how many wins are too many wins for a rebuilding team like the Sacramento Kings?
Here’s where the “Counting on the lottery odds is foolish!” argument picks up steam. Since 2019 — again, the first year the lottery odds were flattened to give the best odds to the bottom three teams — the most wins by a team that ended up winning the lottery was Dallas, just last year, with 39.
The team with the second-most wins to end up with the top pick? That was Atlanta, with 36 in 2024.
There have been seven draft lotteries since 2019. How have the bottom three teams over those seven years fared? Nine of those 21 teams earned a Top 3 pick, and only four ended up with the first pick.
Fun fact: since 2019, the NBA team with the worst record has never earned the number one pick in the draft.
Yikes. It’s more difficult than ever before for the worst teams to get the top picks. So, given the fickle nature of lotteries, a better question for the Sacramento Kings is this: how many wins is too many for a team hoping to end up with the best odds that come with finishing in the bottom three?
The most wins by a Bottom 3 NBA team since 2019 is 23. The Pistons tanked their way to 23 wins in 2022, but ended up picking fifth.
Three teams have earned the best odds with 22 wins. Orlando won 22 games in 2022, second-worst in the Association, then ended up winning the lottery and drafted Paolo Banchero.
Then in 2023, Houston and San Antonio both won 22 games and ended up with the second- and third-worst records via a tie-breaker. The Spurs, of course, won the Wemby sweepstakes, while Houston ended up drafting fourth and took Amen Thompson. Detroit, with only 17 wins that season, dropped to fifth and drafted Ausar Thompson.
Wow, that’s a lot of numbers, but two things stand out. The Sacramento Kings, on pace for 22 wins at the halfway mark of this season, appear to be in serious danger of winning their way out of the best lottery odds.
And the other thing is this: the NBA Draft Lottery has been downright cruel to the league’s neediest teams — and the Sacramento Kings may soon find out just how cruel it can be.
Upcoming Sacramento Kings schedule for the 2025-26 season
Tuesday, January 20th – vs. Miami Heat – 7:00 PM PT
Wednesday, January 21st – vs. Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM PT
Friday, January 23rd – @ Cleveland Cavaliers – 4:30 PM PT
Sunday, January 25th – @ Detroit Pistons – 12:00 PM PT
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