Amid reports that San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is considering a run for California governor, someone has launched an exploratory text message poll to gauge public support.
The poll — which runs dozens of questions long — describes Mahan as a Democrat with a working-class background and tech credentials, according to screenshots obtained by San José Spotlight. It adds Mahan jumped into politics and “challenged” California’s status quo on homelessness by taking affordable housing funds and using them for temporary shelter. The poll said that as governor, Mahan would stand for Democratic values but still be a fiscal hawk. It asks respondents whether they like him and would support him.
“Matt Mahan is a Democrat who is pro-choice, pro-gun safety and pro-environment,” the poll reads. “He is also pro-accountability for how tax dollars are spent, and pro-public safety including more police and more shelter and services for those who accept shelter. As Governor, he will stand up for Democratic values, but also ensure Californians have a government that is accountable, fiscally responsible, and delivers on his promises.”
The poll then asks respondents if that makes them much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely or much less likely to vote for Mahan for governor.
It’s not clear who commissioned the poll or put up the funding to finance it. A search of recent state campaign records show no filings indicating Mahan has established a statewide office campaign committee or a candidate intention statement.
A representative for the mayor did not address questions about the survey’s origin.
“I’m seriously considering running for governor because we need serious solutions from Sacramento on homelessness, crime and cost of living,” Mahan told San José Spotlight.
Jim Reed, executive director for Mahan’s recently launched Back to Basics 501(c)(4) political advocacy group, said the organization is not behind the poll, but declined to comment further.
Text messages show polling firm Dynata conducted the survey. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Northern California’s largest city has historically failed to produce a competitive governor candidate, which some have blamed on San Jose’s usual offering of moderates. Only two San Jose mayors — Sam Liccardo and Norm Mineta — translated their political success to landing powerful federal offices.
But over the past two years, Mahan has insisted on his commitment to City Hall while appearing on TV news channels up and down the state to build name recognition and spar with Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Mahan clashed with the governor over Proposition 36, the statewide ballot measure that toughened criminal punishment for petty theft. He made national TV over his controversial plan to arrest homeless people who refuse shelter. He publicly ridiculed Newsom’s attempts to go viral when combating President Donald Trump’s administration. He painted himself as a foil to what he called the Democrat “status quo” of wasteful government spending. And yet he’s aligned with Newsom as a vocal opponent to California’s proposed billionaire tax.
In the process, Mahan has won premature endorsements online from some of the Bay Area’s loudest centrist and right-wing political voices.
“Matt Mahan is the future of California,” venture capitalist and Ycombinator CEO Garry Tan wrote on X Monday.
Mahan’s decision to launch the Back to Basics organization — focused on building a statewide political coalition around his policy agenda — has been widely interpreted as an attempt to raise his profile and strengthen his reach in statewide policy conversations.
While Mahan has generally downplayed rumors of a potential gubernatorial run, recent appearances on TV news stations suggest his thinking has changed. He has told a number of outlets he will decide whether to join the race in the coming weeks.
“I’m not seeing any of the current candidates speak clearly and boldly about flexible and accountable funding for getting people off the streets, intervening in cycles of addiction and mental illness and putting out a real plan for how we get people the help that they need and properly implement new tools like Prop. 36,” Mahan told KCRA Channel 3 Sacramento in an interview.
He’s also taken pains to ensure his vision for state governance is adopted by other candidates if he chooses not to run. He hosted several gubernatorial candidates at a homeless housing site in December, aiming to get their buy-in on San Jose’s strategy of prioritizing temporary shelter over permanent affordable housing.
If Mahan announces his campaign, he would join a contender pool that includes East Bay Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter, former state Controller Betty Yee, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, former Assemblymember Ian Calderon, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and billionaire Tom Steyer.
While there is no confirmation that Mahan played a hand in the text survey, one political observer suggested the polling effort may be part of a broader fundraising strategy for an eventual campaign.
“The purpose could be to show he has a level of statewide recognition sufficient to give a campaign credibility to big donors,” Terry Christensen, San Jose State University political science professor emeritus and former host of “Valley Politics,” told San José Spotlight. “Fundraising will be a major challenge for him if he runs. It takes a lot of money to be a serious statewide candidate.”
Contact Brandon Pho at [email protected] or @brandonphooo on X. Contact Keith Menconi at [email protected] or @KeithMenconi on X.