LOS ANGELES (KABC) — Southern California will possibly see drier conditions than what is average for winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook.
The seasonal outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, released last week, predicts that the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest will experience possible cooler-than-average temperatures, while much of the southern and eastern United States will face potentially milder temperatures than what is usually expected during the winter season.
The winter outlook predicts whether parts of the country will be above, below or near average when it comes to temperatures and precipitation — from December through February.
What’s the winter outlook for Southern California?
After last winter’s historic wildfires, the terms “La Niña” and “dry weather” aren’t really what we want to hear, but it’s what we can expect heading into the next couple of months.
“We don’t want a really strong La Niña, especially for you all going into this season,” said ABC’s Chief Meteorologist Ginger Zee, who recently shared her insight on the winter outlook with Eyewitness News. “That combo of factors would not be great, but that is what everybody is looking at, and so projection from December through February 2026, we anticipate La Niña conditions, which would again put you on the drier side, even though California is kind of the battleground when it comes to La Niña.”
Our Pacific Ocean temperatures are colder during La Niña, and the jet stream is pushed northward, meaning stormier and colder weather for the north, and warmer and drier conditions for the south.
“For Southern California, a typical La Niña is drier, the El Niños can bring the lows a little bit farther south and bring a little bit more rain, but the La Niñas tend to keep that rain parked up in the Pacific Northwest, right or along the state line of Oregon and California. That’s who gets the most moisture in a La Niña, and then the southwest gets abnormally dry,” said Zee.
While Southern California just had a rare storm with a lot of rain last week, don’t expect to see much of that in the coming months.
“I know the state of California, since the beginning of the year, has more than doubled your severe drought, so kind of that third level of drought, which is big, and you never forecast more rain in drought, especially with a La Niña in place,” said Zee.
What about the Santa Ana winds?
Since the peak season for Santa Ana winds is in the winter months and Southern California is developing a more extensive drought, start preparing now.
Make sure you’re clearing debris around your home and creating defensible space. So far, the region hasn’t had a major wind event this season, but there are still plenty of months to go.
ABC News contributed to this report.
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