Bill Yin breaks down his prediction and pick for Tuesday’s game between the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings.

The 35-21 Rockets will host the 13-46 Kings tonight at 8 PM EST. The Kings have the worst record not only in the Western Conference, but in the NBA. The Rockets are tied for the third seed in the West alongside the Denver Nuggets, but they could easily slide to as low as six or seven should they slip or the Lakers or Suns catch up to them.

The Rockets are 13.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with the total for this game set at 221.5 points.

Rockets vs. Kings prediction, preview

The Kings simply don’t have much going on now. They’ve lost Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine to season-ending injuries. They’re trotting out Maxime Raynaud at center and Precious Achiuwa at power forward and could also be easing back the workloads of vets such as Russell Westbrook and DeMar DeRozan to close out the season. Sacramento’s been a sad story all season, and what started out as a semi-promising campaign quickly devolved into a mess through injuries leading to extended absences for Sabonis, who’s responsible for anchoring this team on the offensive end. The Kings rank 29th in DEFRTG, 28th in OFFRTG, and 29th in net rating. It’s in their best interest to spend the rest of their season giving reps to younger players such as Nique Clifford, Keegan Murray, and Devin Carter. They’ll have an entire offseason to mull over their future, and whether this core makes sense to keep together for next year.

The Rockets have been without Fred VanVleet all season but are still holding onto the third seed in the West. Kevin Durant has integrated well into this lineup as he does most lineups, but it’s uncanny how he can step into any roster and put up his usual scoring numbers and efficiency. He’s taken a step back since last season, but is still averaging a nice 25.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.5 APG on .507/.409/.881 shooting splits. The Rockets are 9th in OFFRTG and 5th in DEFRTG. They’re rebounding and defending well, but turnovers and foul issues have continued to plague this team. They’re also not generating as many assists and threes as the modern NBA demands, so their offense can look ugly at times.

Rockets vs. Kings pick, best bet

Best Bet: SAC Kings +10.5 (+134)

Given how anemic the Rockets’ offense can look at times, I think there’s good value in grabbing this alternate Kings’ spread. While this may look like blowout material on paper, there’s enough evidence to suggest that this could end up a closer, more grindy affair between these two teams, despite the Rockets’ knowing that this is a must-win.