Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Idaho State Vandals.
Monday night in Sacramento carries deep-blue Big Sky weight. Idaho State and Sacramento State both enter at 5-12 in league play, which makes this more than a late regular-season tip—it is a direct seeding fight with the conference tournament right around the corner, and the difference between winning and losing can swing the path from the No. 8 line toward the 9/10 range. Idaho State arrive 12-18, Sacramento State 9-20, and the urgency should be high in a game where both teams still have something tangible to protect. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Idaho State Vandals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Hornets are scoring 78.6 a night on the season, but over their last five they are down to 76.4, and over the last three that number falls again to just 71.3. The efficiency slide matters even more: Sacramento State shot 43.1% from the field and 28.6% from three across the last five, then dipped to 39.0% from the field in the last three. Idaho State’s recent shape is moving in the opposite direction. The Bengals are at 76.2 scored and 83.0 allowed over the last five, but the sharper short window is the last three, where they are up to 79.0 scored while trimming the defensive side to 76.0 allowed. Their shooting has climbed with it, from 43.9% from the field and 30.1% from three over the last five to 46.8% and 33.8% over the last three. The season-long pace note still matters, too: Idaho State are playing at just 62.7 possessions per game, and that is a major anchor in a matchup lined in the 160s. A total this high needs real pace or extreme shotmaking. The recent form says Idaho State are playing better, but still not in a way that naturally invites a clean 81-79 type game.
The player layer also leans more toward recent shape than season-long averages. Prophet Johnson is still the best all-around player on the floor, and his season line remains strong at 18.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.6 steals per game, but his recent scoring has cooled into a steadier mid-teens band, posting 14, 14, and 15 in his last three. Arman Madi has helped stabilize the Hornets a bit with 15, 11, and 14 in that same stretch, but Sacramento State have not had the kind of explosive multi-scorer surge that usually fuels an easy over. Idaho State, meanwhile, have the hottest recent scorer in the game. Gus Etchison has ripped off 29, 36, and 15 in his last three, which is 80 total points, 26.7 per game. That is a legit short-term heater. Around him, the Bengals still bring their usual balance with Connor Hollenbeck at 13.2, Caleb Van De Griend at 12.0 and 6.4 boards, Jamison Guerra at 3.9 assists, Martin Kheil at 2.3 made threes, and Evan Otten at 1.8 blocks, but the biggest recent-form takeaway is that Idaho State’s offense has had a clear go-to spark lately while Sacramento State’s top option has been productive without truly erupting.
Idaho State vs. Sacramento State pick, best bet
The obvious pushback is still the foul line, and that is what keeps this from being a no-sweat under. Sacramento State are one of the better free-point teams in the country, ranking near the top of the Big Sky and sitting 16th nationally in free throw attempts, while living around 78% at the stripe. If the whistle gets loud, this game can climb. But even that angle looks a little less dangerous when the recent offensive shape is weighed properly. Sacramento State are playing their third game in five days, they have been running tighter lately, and the current version of the offense has not matched the season-long home scoring number. Yes, the Hornets are 9-4 at home and still average 86.9 points per game in this building, but that season split is doing a lot of work for a team that has just scored 74, 80, and 61 in its last three. Idaho State’s road scoring is only 68.4 on the season, which also matters here, because if the under is going to lose, Sacramento State probably need to carry almost all of the tempo burden themselves. The recent scoring dip says that is a shakier bet than the full-year home split suggests.
Sacramento State’s last five game totals are 153, 175, 166, 196, and 153, which averages 162.4, but that sample is inflated by the 94-102 Eastern Washington game. Strip the focus down to the last three, and the Hornets’ games are averaging just 154.3. Idaho State’s last five game totals are 156, 167, 142, 168, and 163, which averages 159.2, and their last three are even lower at 155.0. Blend those short samples together and the game looks a lot more mid-150s than true 160-plus. Even the first meeting, which finished 97-84, reads more like an outlier script than a clean rematch template: Idaho State hit 14 of 30 from three in that game, owned a 19-11 edge in points off turnovers, and Sacramento State got 34 from Mikey Williams. That is a much hotter offensive recipe than what either team has shown consistently in the most recent sample.
So the best bet is Under 160.5, playable to 159.5. The way it dies is simple: Sacramento State turn it into a whistle game, the free throws pile up, and the last minute becomes a parade to the stripe—but the stronger recent-form read still says this number is asking for a cleaner, faster offensive script than these teams have been living in lately.
Call it Idaho State 80, Sacramento State 77.
Best bet: Sacramento State vs. Idaho State u160.5 total points (-110)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!