Gasoline prices in Southern California are expected to surge following the U.S. and Israel led attacks on Iran.
How much?
Energy experts are not ruling out gas prices jumping above an average $5 per gallon.
Matt McClain, a petroleum analyst with GasBuddy, expects prices to rise between 10- and 30-cents through Wednesday morning, based on what is known so far about the war with Iran.
“I’m not going to rule out $5, but I’m also not going to rule it in. It’s not looking like we will have a ceasefire tomorrow by any stretch, but just in case we do, we won’t make any predictions. An ongoing conflict is unpredictable.”
He pointed to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who on Monday did not rule out the possibility of sending American ground troops to Iran, and President Donald Trump telling CNN’s Jake Tapper the same day that the “big wave” of military action against Iran is yet to come.
McClain at GasBuddy is playing it carefully, for now.
“No one’s got a crystal ball, and it would be unwise to guess where prices are going, and anybody who attempts it will probably be wrong. My darts don’t always hit the bull’s eye.”
Severin Borenstein, business and faculty director at the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, is in the same camp.
“The markets have priced in about another $7 per barrel of oil since last Friday, and that translates into something like 15- to 18-cents a gallon at the pump,” Borenstein said. “It could get much worse, or even get better. That’s the best guess of the markets and I wouldn’t be confident in trying to outguess the markets.”
As of Tuesday, California had the highest average price of gasoline in the nation at $4.674 a gallon — and is facing pressure to head even higher, according to gas price data provided by the American Automobile Association.
Tuesday’s average gas price is still 27% lower than it’s all-time high of $6.43 per gallon, hit on June 14, 2022, in the middle of the global pandemic, soaring inflation in the country and a few months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — arguably extreme times that fueled the higher gas prices.
In response to the disruptions, gasoline futures among crude oil traders jumped 7% with average retail prices in the U.S. hitting $2.997 a gallon on Sunday, the highest in three months, according to AAA. Nationally, gas prices rose another 4% on Tuesday to $3.109.
In California, Tuesday’s average price of $4.674 was up 7% from $4.368 a month ago, and higher by less than 1% from $4.628 seen a week ago.
The all-time AAA record for the average price of gas nationally was $5.01, also reached on June 14, 2022, said AAA spokeswoman Kandace Redd.
Retail prices are consistently higher in California than in any other state by about a dollar due to state taxes and fees, environmental requirements and other factors.
In the week ahead, McClain said that gasoline prices are likely to head higher due as seasonal trends continue and markets navigate “this evolving geopolitical landscape.”
“Check back at the end of the week,” he said. “When you have an ongoing situation like this, a week long prediction is about as good as nothing. It’s because nobody knows, not even the people who are pulling the trigger to launch the missiles know, until it lands and does what it does.”
The U.S. today is less vulnerable to oil shocks than it’s been in the past, because a massive increase in home-grown production has turned it into an energy exporter, according to a Bloomberg report published Monday.
Tankers carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East have stopped or been rerouted as maritime insurers have canceled war risk coverage for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf.
The shipping route, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass, effectively closed with at least three tankers damaged in the attacks that began on Saturday. Iran has responded to the strikes with retaliatory attacks that have sharply increased risk to commercial shipping in the past day.
The pressure on gas prices is coming at a difficult time for Californians. The state is seeing a weakening of its oil industry, and increasing challenges for its refineries to remain open due to environmental concerns, according to a Daily Breeze report on Monday, March 2.
A few of the old refineries are in various stages of shuttering.
The Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery officially closed on Dec. 31 after announcing in late 2024 that it would close one of the largest and oldest such facilities in Southern California, touching off a wave of speculation over what would become of the 650 acres in Wilmington and Carson, an industrial backbone near the Port of Los Angeles.
Other refineries also are ramping down.
In Northern California, the Marathon Martinez refinery in Contra Costa has faced severe operational and safety issues while the Valero facility in Benicia is in the process of shutting down its 145,000 barrel-per-day refinery by April, citing high operational costs and strict California environmental regulations.
The state also is transitioning to a summertime blend of cleaner-burning, lower-volatility fuel mandated to reduce smog, typically required from April 1 through Oct. 31. The gasoline is more expensive to produce, often raising pump prices by 10-15 cents or more. The switch causes higher, earlier price spikes in California compared to other states.
In Orange County, prices rose Monday by less than a penny to $4.65 a gallon from $4.646 on Sunday, but up nearly a nickel from $4.602 a week ago, and up 7.2% from $4.339 a month ago.
In Los Angeles County, prices rose Monday by less than a penny to $4.70 a gallon from $4.694 on Sunday, but up just over 3 cents from $4.665 a week ago, and up 6.2% from $4.427 a month ago.
The same trends are evident in San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Borenstein doesn’t believe the current global crude shortages are enough to bring back the return of gas lines from the 1970s when the Arab oil embargo drove up crude oil prices.
“I’m certainly not going to run out to the gas station in the middle of the night to save 10- to 20-cents a gallon,” he said. “That just won’t happen.”
Bloomberg contributed to this article.
Gas prices over $5.00 a gallon at a Mobil station at the corner of Stonehill Drive and Del Obispo Street in Dana Point, CA, on Monday, March 2, 2026. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)
Festive St. Patrick’s Day decorations surround gas prices at a Shell station at the corner of Chapman Avenue and Euclid Street in Garden Grove, CA, on Monday, March 2, 2026. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)
Gas prices around $5.00 a gallon at a 76 station at the corner of Beach Boulevard and Lampson Avenue in Stanton, CA, on Monday, March 2, 2026. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)
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Gas prices over $5.00 a gallon at a Mobil station at the corner of Stonehill Drive and Del Obispo Street in Dana Point, CA, on Monday, March 2, 2026. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)