“The race is unsettled.”
So veteran California pollster Mark Baldassare told The Times’ Seema Mehta about his latest poll in the race for governor.
You’re reading the Essential California newsletter
L.A. Times reporters guide you through the most important news, features and recommendations of the morning.
By continuing, you agree to our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy.
The poll found no clear front-runner. In fact, the five leading candidates are all within 4 percentage points of one another. Among the five, former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and hedge fund founder Tom Steyer lead the way among the Democrats, and conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco were the top Republicans, Mehta reported.
So what is going on here? We asked The Times’ political columnists Anita Chabria and Mark Z. Barabak for some analysis.
Why so close?
Chabria: The race seems so close because nobody cares. Seriously, ask people those names and maybe they will pick one to sound not apathetic, but if you nudged them slightly, my guess is you could get them to go another direction or admit they don’t really have deep thoughts on the issue, yet anyway.
Overall, this is currently a race between paste and glue. When we get closer, people will have more interest, but right now it’s so boring most folks give it the big whatever.
It is, though, notable that Steyer is getting the endorsements of progressive unions like the United Domestic Workers and the California Nurses Assn. That is huge for his on-the-ground campaign and I do wonder if the idea that “it takes a billionaire to beat the billionaires” isn’t a message that resonates.
Barabak: You have nine serious (broadly speaking) Democrats running and two major Republicans. That’s a lot of folks — none of whom are particularly well known or hugely charismatic — taking small slices of the pie.
Had their been a strong front-runner, say, former Vice President Kamala Harris, I think you would have seen a much smaller Democratic field. But since the contest is wide-open, you have a lot of candidates jumping in and figuring, why not? These folks are also, collectively, suffering from a major attention deficit. In this age of Trump, just about everything, politically speaking, revolves around him. A candidate could light his or her hair on fire on the Hollywood Freeway at rush hour and, with everything going on in the world, struggle to get folks to notice.
Is there an opening for Republicans in this deep blue state?
Chabria: Democrats are coming up on a crisis if folks don’t start dropping out. One recent poll by IVC media put Bianco at the top of the heap by 5 points, with Hilton not far behind. But that’s largely because Democrats with little chance of succeeding are still hanging onto some supporters. If you take out the top three Democrats — Swalwell, Porter and Steyer — there’s more than 20% of the vote tied up with those other candidates, including 12% of voters who would choose “someone else.”
People need to (and likely will) start dropping out to free up those votes.
But at the top, Steyer has his own cash and isn’t going to go willingly. Porter and Swalwell are also likely to resist any pressure to leave the race. So yes, there is a real lane for a Republican.
Barabak: There is definitely a lane for one of the two Republicans to emerge from California’s top two primary. But I don’t consider it very likely, in part because I’ve seen iterations of this movie before.
Most notably, in 2004 when a small squadron of Democrats were running for the party’s presidential nomination. There was speculation one of them might win the Iowa caucuses, the first of the nominating contests, with 17% or 18% of the vote. But, in the end, John Kerry won with 38% of the vote and the second-place finisher, John Edwards, garnered 32% support.
Voters tend to want to go with a “winner” and not “waste” their vote and so when/if it becomes clear one or another is the top Democrat in the gubernatorial field, I would imagine he or she will garner a lot of last-minute, hop-on-the-bandwagon support. And the closer we get to (the primary on) June 2 and the greater the fear of two Republicans shutting out Dems, the more Democratic voters are likely to back whichever candidate is perceived as the best positioned to keep that from happening. Even if he or she is not their first choice.
Today’s top stories 
Novato is one of the Northern California communities that have seen high concentrations of human metapneumovirus, or HMPV, detected in local wastewater.
(Santiago Mejia/AP)
A virus without a vaccine or treatment is hitting CaliforniaCommunities across the state, particularly in Northern California, have seen high concentrations of human metapneumovirus, or HMPV, detected in their wastewater.While HMPV may not necessarily ring a bell, it isn’t a new virus. Its typical pattern of seasonal spread was upended by the COVID-19 pandemic, and its resurgence could signal a return to a more typical pre-coronavirus respiratory disease landscape.Why solar energy for renters hasn’t taken off in CaliforniaCalifornia’s new community solar program is years delayed and only a handful of projects have launched in the meantime.Over the past 11 years, New York, Maine, Minnesota, Massachusetts and other states have built thriving community solar programs. But according to the California Public Utilities Commission, California has built only 34 total projects since 2015.Changes are coming to the historic Paramount lotWith $79 billion in debt from acquiring Warner Bros., Paramount is consolidating studio operations and looking to monetize its real estate assets.The company plans to shift most production to Warner Bros.’ Burbank lot while leasing out space at its historic 65-acre Melrose Avenue lot.Preapproved redevelopment plans could add 1.4 million square feet of new production, office and retail space while preserving the studio’s historic character.More big storiesCommentary and opinionsThe Texas primary was contentious and costly, columnist Anita Chabria writes. Here’s what it means for the 2028 elections.Too many Democrats in California governor’s race? That’s a great thing, writes columnist Gustavo Arellano.Iran, Israel, pet otters and hair gel were among the subjects discussed Tuesday evening at Gov. Gavin Newsom’s book tour stop in Los Angeles, writes news and culture critic Lorraine Ali.This morning’s must readOther great readsFor your downtime 
A small turf area at the Point has become a gathering spot for families with kids, like similar green areas at malls across Southern California.
(Stella Kalinina/For The Times)
Going outStaying inQuestion of the day: Got a picture of the snow? Send it our way 
An Amtrak train passing through Truckee, Calif. is surrounded by snow.
(Albert Borden)
Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.
And finally … from our archives 
Scorpion Anchorage is the most popular landing spot on Santa Cruz Island, Channel Islands National Park.
(Christopher Reynolds/Los Angeles Times)
On March 5, 1980, Channel Islands National Park was established.
In 2023, former Times staff writer Helen Li wrote about how to camp on the Channel Islands, which consists of 249,354 acres — half of which are under the ocean.
Have a great day, from the Essential California team
Jim Rainey, staff reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew Campa, weekend reporter
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters
How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.