Anaheim Ducks get: Defenseman John Carlson
Washington Capitals get: A conditional first-round pick in either 2026 or 2027, and a third-round pick in 2027
It’s the end of an era in Washington, and an absolutely fascinating time in Anaheim.
Carlson’s value took a real hit last spring. He was exposed in the playoffs after Martin Fehérváry was injured and started showing his age. The defensive side of his game is still somewhat of a red flag; his rush defense took another step back this season, according to AllThreeZones’ tracking, and has contributed to the team allowing a higher rate of expected goals against in his minutes. But Washington really hasn’t insulted him, instead continuing to deploy him against top competition this year.
So Carlson isn’t exactly going to be the stopper this Ducks team needs, but they don’t need him to come in and be their No. 1 or even a No. 2, which could help limit any potential damage. And this team has a lot more speed on the backend to help make up for where he lacks.
Instead, Carlson was acquired to be an offensive spark on the backend. He is scoring at a rate of 2.19 points per 60, which is his best pace since the 2021-22 season. Maybe the most impressive element is how much he is producing without the power play doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
Carlson has been an offensive ace at five-on-five this season. While he doesn’t have the legs to be the puck carrier at this point in his career, he gets to work in the zone to generate scoring chances. And those chances (and goals) add up to him having the seventh best scoring rate among defensemen.
The Ducks are a top-10 team in expected goal generation this year, but since New Year’s rank 20th in five-on-five scoring. Adding Carlson could help change that, both because he adds a much-needed scoring presence to the right side, and because Jackson Lacombe hasn’t taken a leap offensively this season.
After years of rebuilding, the Ducks are finally in a position where the team can move future assets, like a first-rounder, to bring in a player who can help right now. And while buying up rentals too soon is a slippery slope, it works here with Carlson’s age in mind. The conditions on the trade are the key, in case Anaheim somehow slips out of the playoff picture with the race is so tight in the Pacific Division.
This deal is really interesting from the Capitals’ perspective too. Washington isn’t out of the race, and could have just let Carlson play out the rest of his contract before re-assessing in the summer. But standing pat won’t help the Capitals get out of the dreaded middle either. So while losing an offensive threat from the backend is going to strain the Capitals’ in the meantime, this is a smart way to get younger and think about the long term — whether the team uses these picks, or flips them.
Ducks grade: A-
Capitals grade: B+