Early Friday morning – depending on where you’re located – the Anaheim Ducks made a deal to shore up their blue line by trading for Washington Capitals defenceman John Carlson, per Elliotte Friedman. Going to Washington is a conditional first-round pick in this year’s draft (it slides to next year if the Ducks miss the playoffs) and a third-round pick next season.
Carlson turned 36 years old in January, is a free agent at the end of this campaign, and has 46 points in 55 games. He hasn’t played since the Olympic break and there hasn’t been a firm timeline on a return yet, but hopefully the Ducks wouldn’t trade for a currently-injured pending UFA who may not return to the lineup very soon.
Let’s break it down.
What Anaheim Gets
This trade gives Anaheim a trio of veteran, right-shot defencemen they can use with Carlson, Jacob Trouba, and Radko Gudas. At the least, it locks down the right side and gives them three left-right pairings with Gudas on the third pair.
Since the start of the 2024-25 season, Carlson has managed 1.53 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (per Evolving Hockey). Among 174 defencemen who’ve played 1250 minutes at 5-on-5 across the two seasons, that ranks fourth, though the top two (Zach Werenski at 1.86 and Cale Makar at 1.82) are far ahead of the rest. Regardless, Carlson has produced 5-on-5 points at a rate of an elite defenceman.
Going to Anaheim, Carlson joins a Ducks team that is scoring 2.62 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season. Washington is at 2.74 goals/60, so they’re not that far off from each other, and the Ducks look like a rejuvenated team since returning from the Olympic break, scoring 3.3 goals/60 minutes in their last five games. His change in team really doesn’t change the team around him that much, or at least the expectation of scoring. That is the good news.
There is some bad news, with the first item being Carlson’s power-play situation. He lost the top power-play role to Jakob Chychrun, and he goes to an Anaheim team that has been using Jackson LaCombe primarily as the top PP option. The Ducks’ PP has been inconsistent this year but has looked good with LaCombe running things since play resumed after the Olympics.
The second piece of bad news is that LaCombe is Anaheim’s top defenceman at even strength and Trouba is the #2. Maybe Carlson overtakes Trouba, but Carlson will lose some ice time if he doesn’t. That means expecting him to play 21-22 minutes, rather than the 22-23 minutes he had with the Capitals.
Overall, this is a lateral move fantasy-wise for Carlson. What will be more important for his fantasy value than anything is returning to the lineup soon and performing to his ability when he does.
This does give Trouba competition for being the team’s #1 right-handed defenceman. It probably won’t mean a big loss in ice time for Trouba, but competition is still competition.
Anaheim acquiring Carlson is very bad news for rookie Ian Moore. He had been solid in a minimal role for the Ducks, but as a right-hand shot, he now has the veteran trio of Trouba, Carlson, and Gudas ahead of him. He can also be sent to the AHL without requiring waivers (per PuckPedia), so that seems likely for him. It also moves Drew Helleson permanently into the role of a seventh defenceman, which means his minimal fantasy value is now gone.
Overall, Anaheim getting Carlson probably means more for their forwards than it does for Carlson. He is a very, very good playmaking defenceman who can jump into the play both off the rush and off the cycle. His defensive play is suspect, but it’s no worse than Helleson’s, and the offence more than makes up for it.
In four games post-Olympics without Carlson in the Washington lineup, Rasmus Sandin earned 20:48 per game in ice time with a secondary PP role. Up until the Olympics, Sandin Skated 18:51 per game, so it seems as if he’ll be a big beneficiary of the Carlson trade. The trade also locks Chychrun into the top PP role and Matt Roy as the top right-shot defenceman. It should also mean a regular lineup spot for Trevor van Riemsdyk.
Who This Helps
Anaheim Secondary Scoring Lines
Who This Hurts
Washington Secondary Scoring Lines