Experts weigh in on California Democratic Party drama over governor’s race

Experts weigh in on California Democratic Party drama over governor’s race | California Politics 360

California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks published an open letter to candidates this week, suggesting lower polling Democrats should consider dropping out of the race. All but one of those candidates ignored the plea.

CALIFORNIA’S GOVERNOR? VOTERS WILL NARROW DOWN THE PACKED FIELD OF CANDIDATES TO TWO IN JUNE’S PRIMARY. AND THERE’S A CHANCE CALIFORNIA COULD BE DECIDING BETWEEN TWO REPUBLICANS IN NOVEMBER. IT’S WHY CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN RUSTY HICKS WROTE AN OPEN LETTER TO THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES, ASKING THEM TO, QUOTE, HONESTLY ASSESS THE VIABILITY OF THEIR CANDIDACY AND CAMPAIGN. BUT MOST OF THE LOWER POLLING CANDIDATES IGNORED THAT LETTER AND FILED TO RUN. WE REACHED OUT TO RUSTY HICKS TO JOIN THE SHOW. WHEN HE RELEASED THIS LETTER, HIS OFFICE SAID HE WAS UNAVAILABLE. UNAVAILABLE TO COME ON THE SHOW. SO NOW I’M JOINED BY THREE POLITICAL EXPERTS STEPHEN THE DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST TIM ROSALES, AND ELECTIONS EXPERT AND POLITICAL DATA INC. PAUL MITCHELL. THANK YOU ALL THREE FOR BEING HERE. THANK YOU STEVE. LET’S START WITH YOU. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THOSE LOWER POLLING CANDIDATES IGNORING RUSTY HICKS. DOES THAT MEAN HE IS A WEAK PARTY CHAIRMAN? WELL, YOU KNOW, LOOK AT HISTORY. IF YOU LOOK AT CANDIDATES WHO WOULD HAVE LISTENED TO THE PARTY BOSSES AND NOT RUN, WE WOULD HAVE NEVER HAD A PRESIDENT OBAMA, CLINTON OR CARTER. YOU KNOW, HE HAS HIS ROLE. I THINK IT WAS A LITTLE INARTFUL IN THE WAY HE DID IT. HE MIGHT HAVE DONE IT BEFORE THE CONVENTION OR DONE BEHIND CLOSED DOORS, BECAUSE HE WAS SPURNED BY ALMOST ALL THE CANDIDATES WITH HIS REQUEST. AND IT WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A BACKLASH. TIM, HOW ARE REPUBLICANS LOOKING AT THIS? DO THEY HAVE THE POPCORN OUT OR WHAT’S GOING ON? WELL, I THINK YOU’VE GOT TWO REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES RIGHT NOW THAT ARE KIND OF SITTING IN CATBIRD SEATS, YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FIELD. AND SO THEY’RE KIND OF PROCEEDING AS NORMAL. I THINK REPUBLICANS ALSO LOOK AT THE OPPORTUNITY OF A POTENTIAL TOP TWO REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL FACE-OFF IN NOVEMBER. IS THAT SUPER LIKELY? PROBABLY NOT SUPER LIKELY, BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS IS IS THERE. AND I THINK THE OTHER THING IS, IS THAT BOTH DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE LOOKING AT THIS OPEN PRIMARY SYSTEM AND AND THOSE WHO SUPPORTED IT MAY BE HAVING SOME BUYER’S REMORSE AND SAYING, MAYBE WE SHOULD GO BACK TO THE OLD WAY OF, YOU KNOW, REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, AND DUELING IT OUT IN NOVEMBER. YEAH. IAN CALDERON, ONE OF THE LOWER POLLING CANDIDATES WHO DROPPED OUT, DID SAY EXACTLY THAT. MAYBE WE NEED TO REASSESS IT. I MEAN, PAUL, YOU HAVE THIS SIMULATOR THAT EVERYONE’S LIKE REFRESHING EVERY DAY. NOW AT THIS POINT, JUST LOOKING AT THE DATA AND THE NUMBERS, I MEAN, WHAT ARE THE ACTUAL CHANCES THAT A REPUBLICAN, YOU KNOW, THE CALIFORNIANS WOULD HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN TWO REPUBLICANS AS THEIR GOVERNOR? WELL, RIGHT NOW, USING THE MORE COMPLEX MODELING AND EVERYTHING LIKE THAT, IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 25%. BUT REALLY, THE WAY TO THINK ABOUT IT KIND OF JUST FOR A LAYPERSON, IS THAT THERE ARE 40% OF THE VOTES THAT USUALLY GO TO REPUBLICANS, AND 60% OF THE VOTES THAT USUALLY GO TO DEMOCRATS. WE’VE SEEN SEVERAL POLLS IN WHICH THE REPUBLICANS ARE KIND OF TIED A LITTLE BIT. SO IF THEY TIE IN, EACH OF THEM GETS 20%. WILL ONE OF THOSE DEMOCRATS MAKE IT INTO THAT FIRST OR SECOND SPOT? WILL EITHER OF THEM GET OVER 20%? WE HAVE NOT SEEN ONE DEMOCRAT IN ANY POLL GET OVER 20% YET. AND SO THE CHALLENGE IS WE COULD HAVE A SITUATION WHERE THOSE TWO DEMOCRATS, YOU KNOW, OR THE TWO REPUBLICANS MAKE THE RUNOFF AND A 25% CHANCE MEANS THAT IT’S UNLIKELY, BUT PROBABLY TOO LIKELY FOR A LOT OF DEMOCRATS TO DEAL WITH. BUT TO MAYBE TAMP DOWN THE CONCERN THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE. I MEAN, HOW MANY OF THESE LOWER POLLING CANDIDATES NEED TO GET OUT, OR IS THERE ONE PARTICULARLY THAT NEEDS TO GET OUT IN ORDER TO HELP WITH THE NUMBERS? WELL, GETTING OUT IS KIND OF THE PAST BECAUSE FILING DEADLINE FRIDAY, YOU KNOW, THE CANDIDATES THAT ARE IN, THERE’S EIGHT TOP CANDIDATES ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE AND TWO TOP CANDIDATES ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE. THE CANDIDATES COULD STILL SAY, I’M GOING TO DROP OUT, BUT IT’S KIND OF LIKE HOTEL CALIFORNIA YOU CAN CHECK OUT, BUT YOU CAN NEVER LEAVE BECAUSE YOUR BALLOT, YOUR NAME, IS STILL GOING TO BE ON THE BALLOT. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, PEOPLE WILL STILL VOTE FOR PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY’VE DROPPED OUT. I DID IT MYSELF IN 2020 PRIMARY. MANY DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES DROPPED OUT AFTER THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY AND ON TUESDAY, THREE DAYS LATER, I VOTED FOR A CANDIDATE WHO HAD ALREADY DROPPED OUT. AND THERE’S A HISTORY OF THIS LELAND YEE, WHO IS RUNNING FOR SECRETARY OF STATE, DROPPED OUT IN 2014. HE WAS UNDER FEDERAL INDICTMENT AND DROPPED OUT. STILL GOT 300,000 VOTES. SO THERE’S STILL A CONCERN FOR DEMOCRATS THAT EVEN IF SOME ONE OF THESE, YOU KNOW, DEMOCRATS DROPS OUT, THEY’RE STILL GOING TO GET VOTES AND STILL PULL AWAY FROM DEMOCRATS CHANCES OF MAKING THE RUNOFF. AND WAS STILL A LOT OF CANDIDATES IN THE RACE. GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOM THIS WEEK ACTUALLY DID STEP UP AND SAY THAT HE MAY GET INVOLVED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS IF HE HAS TO. I MEAN, STEVE, DOES THAT HELP OR HURT THIS RACE? WELL, YOU KNOW, HE’S NOT INCREDIBLY POPULAR AMONG VOTERS AT LARGE, BUT AMONG DEMOCRATS, HE IS, I THINK, 70 OR SO PERCENT APPROVAL RATING. SO THAT WILL PROPEL THAT PARTICULAR CANDIDATE, I THINK, ENOUGH TO LIFT THEM INTO THE TOP POSITION. BUT IT ALSO WILL BE A BURDEN FOR THEM IN A BIGGER ELECTION. RUNNING AGAINST ANOTHER DEMOCRAT, BECAUSE HE WILL BE SEEN AS NEWSOM PART TWO. AND I DON’T THINK THAT’S PARTICULARLY GOOD FOR ANY CANDIDATE. TIM, WHAT’S YOUR TAKE? I MEAN, COULD A NEWSOM ENDORSEMENT ACTUALLY ELEVATE POTENTIALLY ONE OF THE REPUBLICANS IN THIS RACE IN TERMS OF IN TERMS OF, YOU KNOW, THE THE PERCEPTION THAT REPUBLICANS MIGHT HAVE AGAINST THAT CANDIDATE THAT IS ELEVATED BY THE GOVERNOR? WELL, I THINK BOTH OF THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES RIGHT NOW ARE HAVEN’T DONE A LOT TO DISTINGUISH THEMSELVES FROM EACH OTHER. AND THAT’S WHY I THINK YOU SEE THEM KIND OF COMPETING FOR THE SAME MARKET SHARE, ESSENTIALLY, ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, NEWSOM PUTTING HIS THUMB ON THE SCALE FOR A DEMOCRAT CERTAINLY DOES ELEVATE THAT DEMOCRAT. I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, GOES WITHOUT SAYING IN TERMS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE DEMOCRATS BEGIN TO KIND OF ATTACK ONE OF THE REPUBLICANS TO LINK THEM CLOSER TO DONALD TRUMP AND KIND OF PUT THAT DONALD TRUMP, YOU KNOW, STAIN, IF YOU WILL, ON THAT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WITH OTHER VOTERS. DOES THAT ELEVATE THAT REPUBLICAN WITH REPUBLICANS? I THINK THAT CERTAINLY COULD HAPPEN. AND I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THAT TACTIC. WE’VE SEEN IT BEFORE. I THINK IT COULD DEFINITELY HAPPEN AGAIN. AND JUST TO PUT A BOW ON THIS, I MEAN, THE TOP TWO SYSTEM, YOU MENTIONED IT EARLIER. BUT PAUL, DO YOU SEE DO YOU SEE THIS AS MAYBE GOING AWAY. IS THIS A CONVERSATION STARTER AT THIS POINT GETTING RID OF THE TOP TWO? I THINK THAT IF WE DID HAVE A SITUATION WHERE DEMOCRATS WERE LOCKED OUT, ABSOLUTELY. I THINK YOU’D SEE A BALLOT MEASURE TO REMOVE THE TOP TWO SYSTEM, AND THAT WOULD PROBABLY PASS. BUT IT’S STILL UNLIKELY THAT THAT WILL HAPPEN. AND IF WE HAVE A STATUS QUO ELECTION, I DON’T THINK THERE’S GOING TO BE THE MONEY OR VOTER SENTIMENT TO GET RID OF THE TOP TWO YET. ALL RI

Experts weigh in on California Democratic Party drama over governor’s race | California Politics 360

California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks published an open letter to candidates this week, suggesting lower polling Democrats should consider dropping out of the race. All but one of those candidates ignored the plea.

Updated: 8:25 AM PDT Mar 8, 2026

Editorial Standards ⓘ

The California governor’s race is officially set, and efforts from some Democrats to thin the crowded field have fallen short. California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks published an open letter to candidates this week, suggesting lower polling Democrats should consider dropping out of the race. All but one of those candidates ignored the plea. Is Hicks a weak party chairman? “He has his role, I think it was a little inartful in the way he did it. It was a little bit of a backlash,” said Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.”Look at history, if you look at candidates who would have listened to party bosses and not run, we never would have had a President Obama, Clinton or Carter,” Maviglio said. Some Democrats worry that too many candidates on the ballot in June could mean voters end up deciding between two Republicans in November. California’s primary system allows the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance to the general election. But what are the chances that actually happens?Political Data Inc.’s Paul Mitchell said it was about 25% as of Friday. Mitchell noted Republicans typically split 40% of the vote in California while Democrats would split 60%. Republicans have two higher-polling candidates with former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco. The Democratic field includes Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former State Controller Betty Yee, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. “Getting out is the past,” Mitchell said, pointing to Friday’s filing deadline for those who want to run. “The candidates could still say I’m going to drop out. It’s kind of like Hotel California, you can check out but you can never leave.” Republican strategist Tim Rosales doesn’t think the chances are super likely that voters will have to choose between two Republicans for governor. He said the situation is raising awareness about some of the issues with the state’s primary system.”Both Democrats and Republicans are looking at maybe having buyer’s remorse,” Rosales said. KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala reports in-depth coverage of top California politics and policy issues. She is also the host of “California Politics 360.” Get informed each Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on KCRA 3.

The California governor’s race is officially set, and efforts from some Democrats to thin the crowded field have fallen short.

California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks published an open letter to candidates this week, suggesting lower polling Democrats should consider dropping out of the race.

All but one of those candidates ignored the plea.

Is Hicks a weak party chairman?

“He has his role, I think it was a little inartful in the way he did it. It was a little bit of a backlash,” said Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.

“Look at history, if you look at candidates who would have listened to party bosses and not run, we never would have had a President Obama, Clinton or Carter,” Maviglio said.

Some Democrats worry that too many candidates on the ballot in June could mean voters end up deciding between two Republicans in November. California’s primary system allows the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance to the general election.

But what are the chances that actually happens?

Political Data Inc.’s Paul Mitchell said it was about 25% as of Friday.

Mitchell noted Republicans typically split 40% of the vote in California while Democrats would split 60%. Republicans have two higher-polling candidates with former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco.

The Democratic field includes Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former State Controller Betty Yee, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

“Getting out is the past,” Mitchell said, pointing to Friday’s filing deadline for those who want to run. “The candidates could still say I’m going to drop out. It’s kind of like Hotel California, you can check out but you can never leave.”

Republican strategist Tim Rosales doesn’t think the chances are super likely that voters will have to choose between two Republicans for governor.

He said the situation is raising awareness about some of the issues with the state’s primary system.

“Both Democrats and Republicans are looking at maybe having buyer’s remorse,” Rosales said.

KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala reports in-depth coverage of top California politics and policy issues. She is also the host of “California Politics 360.” Get informed each Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on KCRA 3.