In preparation for my annual Top 400 Starting Pitchers ranking article in February 2026, I spend the fall and winter months thoroughly reviewing every team’s rotation, taking the time to analyze every piece of the pitcher and write my analysis months in advance. I usually don’t share these publicly until then, and the last two years I elected to share them exclusively with PL Pro members.
PL Pro members get four major benefits inside these articles:
1. Early Ranking Access
As I go through each team, I rank each pitcher relative to the other pitchers I have already covered inside a Google Spreadsheet. While I often change these throughout the winter even after completing their write-up, PL Pro members have access to view the progress of those rankings before they are made public.
Exclusive Look At Nick’s Updated 2026 SP Rankings:
2. 2026 Player Projections, powered by PLV
At the start of each write-up, you can view each player’s Pitcher List player projection for 2026, powered by PLV. These projections matched hitters alongside BatX in 2025, and performed exceptionally well across the Top 200 SP. They even beat me in the daily streamer challenge by one. So close.
3. Nick’s Starting Pitcher Sheet – The One Sheet for all Pitcher Research
With the help of Kyle Bland, I have a Team SP one-sheet that provides all the relevant data on every pitcher for each team featured in these articles. Here is the example for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
It’s the ultimate resource for your personal SP research. I cannot express enough how helpful it is to have everything in one place.
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One Sheet Of All Giants SPs:
Expected Starters
Logan Webb (RHP)
2025 Stats: 207.0 IP | 3.22 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 26.2 K% | 5.4 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
My initial instinct entering the offseason was to be down on Webb. He’s the same guy as he has been, except that he’s still tinkering with what he does and that WHIP is going to hurt. Well…maybe it won’t. And let’s even say that Webb has a 1.20 WHIP again. The benefit of a low 3s ERA with ~200 strikeouts (that’s assuming a 23% strikeout rate or so, a drop from last year’s 26%+ clip) and double-digit Wins heavily outweighs the WHIP impact. And that’s the floor! Webb’s ability to go deep into games so very often is so uncommon that I have to reward him for his durability, even if I don’t expect his changeup to hold a 30% putaway rate to RHB or his sweeper to keep a 27% putaway rate to LHB. That’s okay! Let’s just hope Arraez latches onto Webb’s 3rd percentile BABIP last year and yanks it further down toward .370 and beyond. If he doesn’t, then it’s possible his hit rate sits near 8.0 instead of pushing 9.0+ like last year and BLAMO! That’s a stud season. I’ll take it.
Quick Take: Webb’s durability is unparalleled and after five straight years of a sub 3.50 ERA, it’s hard to deny the floor he provides, even with the WHIP concerns due to his absurd groundball rate. I don’t quite believe the uptick in strikeouts will last for another year, but even a strikeout per inning returns 200 punchouts and that’s just lovely.
Robbie Ray (LHP)
2025 Stats: 182.1 IP | 3.65 ERA | 1.21 WHIP | 24.6 K% | 9.7 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
The man loves his fastball and I do too. It has legit vert at 94+ mph and Robbie knows how to locate the dang thing upstairs at will. I just wish he also had such faith in his slider, curve, and changeup, which show up and stick around at random times like the one fly that you can’t fathom how it got into the room. Honey, IT’S BACK! How did it get here?! Despite their infrequency, all of Ray’s pitches miss bats and that’s a lovely thing. The fastball and slider take the reins against LHB, while the changeup and curve find their time against RHB, though they have a tough time finding strikes as much as the other two, creating the anxiety that feels so close to not existing.
Have you watched any of his outings? They can be absolutely maddening at times, stuck in a purgatory filled with grunt after grunt of fastballs going upstairs and getting fouled off or taken for a ball. Please, just throw a slider! Then he does. It’s great! It’s a whiff! THANK YOU. Then he throws it again…for a ball. Now back to the fastballs. Noooooooo. This experience happened a fair amount in the first half, but he always found a way around it to give us a lovely ERA and plenty of strikeouts – Ray held a 2.85 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 26% K rate across his first 24 starts – but it suddenly collapsed down the stretch with just two games under 3 ER in his final eight outings. Yikes. His barely sub 10% walk rate during the lovely stretch represented the precarious nature of his success and entering the 2026 season, I don’t want to wishcast that everything is okay. It’s not okay. I have no idea if Ray has improved upon his changeup or if he can feature more sliders for strikes to LHB. Maybe the sinker will return? Or maybe it’ll be a 1.25+ WHIP with too many inefficient starts for us to confidently start him on a given night.
I have Ray ranked before “The Cliff” as I expect him to be worth the hold throughout the season. That said, as much as I want to believe in his first four months and throw away the poor stretch to end the year, it displayed Ray’s path toward the waiver wire that I’m trying to avoid as much as possible across the first four SPs I draft. He’s a bit of a gamble and if you’re into that sort of thing, then he’s your guy.
Quick Take: I’m surprised how down I am on Ray after he was so productive across the first four months of the season, but I can’t deny his inability to throw consistent strikes with his secondaries. His late decline was not a huge surprise after walking so many and getting away with it early on, and even with the upside of improving his strike rate and replicating his early success, the high volatility risk has me favoring his peers in the same tier.
Tyler Mahle (RHP)
2025 Stats: 86.2 IP | 2.18 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 19.1 K% | 8.4 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
It sure can feel smart to look at the 2.18 ERA and 1.13 ERA of Mahle’s 2025 and hand wave it. Look at the 4.51 xFIP! Please don’t do this. Wait, you’re into him? Well, as a Toby, yes, not as a legit stud, and there’s value in having the SP #3 for a team out of camp with a great defense and long leash in the rotation. But he doesn’t pitch well! Are you sure? The HOTEL was in his favor, I know. The low HR rate is bonkers given the problems of old, but then you remember he was on the Reds for most of his career and just had 16 starts in a pitcher friendly park with a 0.52 HR/9. And guess what? So is Oracle Park! But the 85% LOB rate! Yeah, that’s too high. Got me. He also fanned just 19% of the batters he faced after returning 25%+ across four straight seasons, which is mostly due to his elite two-plane four-seamer with a generally flat attack angle dropping from 93/94 mph to 92 mph and change. I’m not going to completely rule out Mahle getting a little extra juice back and his command of the pitch is still as good as it was before.
Then there’s the rest of the arsenal. He added a cutter last season, which essentially took the 83 mph slider and cut it into two, upping it two ticks at the cost of six inches of depth. He spotted it well to RHB and the splitter covers for them against RHB. It’s all good enough to me.
I think he’s a great gamble. The situation is perfect for Mahle in San Francisco and even if you don’t believe he’ll go a full season (three months of last year were on the IL with shoulder fatigue before making two solid starts to end the season), he’s going at the cost of free. Give it a shot, especially if the velocity is nearing 93 mph by the end of the spring.
Quick Take: Mahle had some great HR and LOB luck last season, though even regression spells out a productive arm in 15-teamers, with the chance of strikeouts returning to present proper 12-teamer value. He’ll get volume when he’s on the mound and as a flyball pitcher, the WHIP has a good shot of staying under 1.20 as long as the secondaries find enough strikes.
Adrian Houser (RHP)
2025 Stats: 125.0 IP | 3.31 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 17.8 K% | 7.3 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Houser increased his extension to seven feet with an extra tick or two in velocity and still found himself let go by the Rangers before the season started. The White Sox caught wind of his changes, and cashed in with a pick-up + trade to the Rays, where Houser was consistently decent as a streamer. Now on the Giants, I still see the same guy with a great home park and defense around him (Arraez, please do not mess this up). The Giants will likely ask him to get as much volume as possible if he’s not absolutely terrible, making him a decent arm to slot in 15-teamers early in the year. He commands those fastballs well and plays them off each other for more weak contact than you’d expect. He’s an old-school He just gets outs kind of arm and y’all should take advantage of that where you can.
Quick Take: Houser isn’t terrible, y’all. He’s a great streamer after increasing his extension and velocity last year, and he works with fastballs off each other effectively. His breaker has legit movement that opens the door for punchouts, and don’t overlook him in your deeper formats or as an early stream.
Landen Roupp (RHP)
2025 Stats: 106.2 IP | 3.80 ERA | 1.48 WHIP | 21.4 K% | 9.5 BB%
2026 PL Projection:
Roupp became a bit of a HIPSTER last season after he fanned 17 batters in two starts against the Phillies and Angels in his third and fourth starts, a mark he needed five more starts to match after. At his peak, Roupp is a Nola-lite with a low arm angle and a big breaking ball he commands well down-and-gloveside to RHB and he needs a little more confidence to stop featuring the pitch on the outer half to LHB, though it was heavily successful against them last season at churning outs and called strikes. His changeup needs to step up a little to match it (56% strikes ain’t it), while the sinker gets hit a little too hard to provide the canvas for the hook to thrive against both LHB and RHB. Wait, his 19″ horizontal sinker was bad against RHB last year? Yuuuuup.
Last year, that sinker was thrown inside to RHB just 41% of the time and it led to an absurdly high .427 BABIP. Yes, that will come down, and also, he needs to stop throwing that thing over the middle of the plate so much. Sure, he has an elite 29% called strike rate due to his tendency to locate on the outside edge, but just jam the thing. Throwing it outside opens the door for too many mistakes over the plate and you don’t really need to steal those strikes. You have the stupid good 22% SwStr rate curveball to handle that.
That’s really the biggest area of growth for Roupp. He already has a weapon that works against both batters, he just needs the sinker to be spotted better to RHB and he can figure out the rest to LHB. And let’s say he finds a better feel for his changeup and locates the sinker better. Then you have a 23-25% strikeout rate arm with good ratios…hey wait a second. That’s pretty incredible. He doesn’t have Nola’s four-seamer to elevate upstairs, fine, but you really shouldn’t be walking so many batters with that sinker. Force your hitters to watch some Parks n Rec and make them GET JAMMED.
Quick Take: Roupp’s curveball is elite and all he needs is the sinker to earn strikes. It got beat up a bit against LHB, but its true issue was against RHB, where it held a low strike rate and was demolished when connected inside the zone. If he leans into the inside sinker for better sinker strikes, he’ll have the curveball to put them away or a quick out to third, lowering the WHIP dramatically. And if he can nail down the changeup or a surprise four-seamer along the way, well then that’s just gravy. There’s legit potential here.
Names To Know
Hayden Birdsong (RHP)
Birdsong’s volatility not just within the season, and not just within games, but within at-bats was maddening, to say the least, and I’m pleased to tell you that he’s showcasing different mechanics this spring to hope alleviate the issue. I cannot tell you if it’ll actually fix the fella, who doesn’t have anything absolutely elite inside his arsenal. It’s a hard fastball at 95/96 mph with 17″ of vert, but a high attack angle that limits some of the whiffs (still good!), and his slider/curve are good, but not filth. There’s a kick-change as well (he was one of the first) and the whole package speaks flashes of greatness without the reliability. Unless I can sit down and watch a game of Birdsong executing more than not, I’m out.
JT Brubaker (RHP)
Hey, it’s “Coffee Cakes!” He re-signed with the Giants after appearing in relief for all but his final game of the season, where he flexed an 81/82 mph two-plane curve that was all kinds of lovely. Think of him as a discount Roupp with a 17/18″ sinker as well that he doesn’t get inside to RHB and a 86 mph gyro slider. It’s possible the Giants give him a shot to save some bullets, especially if an arm goes down before the season starts, and I’ll at least take notice given the great hook. I heavily doubt a shock post-hype breakout is upon us.
Caleb Kilian (RHP)
Oh snap, he’s with the Giants now?! Kilian has been plagued by injuries and in the single frame of spring so far, he’s been at 95/96 mph with poor movement and a 91/92 mph cutter that he should clearly lean more into. The dream feels dead, though. It’s too bad.
Blade Tidwell (RHP)
It’s a solid four-seamer with high vert and 96+ mph, but can he spot them? I dig the 89/90 mph cutter a lot and the sweeper is good, it’s just a matter of getting the innings to refine them and make the trio work effectively. There’s also enough separation between the four-seamer and sinker that I can see them working as a pair against RHB well. Huh. I really hope he gets a shot this season as I see potential here.
Trevor McDonald (RHP)
He gave us a lovely stream against the Rockies last season and we’ll always be in his debt. The curveball is a real one and it’s why he leaned into it over 50% of the time, but the rest is…suspect. I don’t think McDonald is going to be much more than a stream if he does start again this year.
Carson Whisenhunt (LHP)
Whisenhunt tried to be a SWATCH last year and the fella didn’t have enough juice on his changeup, while the 91/92 mph fastball was blasted. Well now he’s throwing live BP in February, sitting 96+ mph. Uhhhh. Yeah. Look, take that with a grain of salt n all, but even just sitting 94 mph is a big upgrade for Whisenhunt and this isn’t a guy I’m saying you should go from a 12th round pick to an 8th round pick. I’m just telling you to pay attention in the spring, see if it holds, and see if the Giants take interest to make him a starter straight out of camp. If he’s back to the minors, sweet! Then we can monitor the velocity and twiddle our thumbs, anxious for the moment to snag him when he gets the call.
Carson Seymour (RHP)
Seymour was the more intriguing Carson last year due to his velocity, but now that Whisenhunt has flexed 96 mph, Seymour sure pales in comparison. Yes, he’s also at 96 mph, but it’s Empty Velocity. Seymour’s actual skills are a two-plane 81 mph curveball and 90 mph cutter that acts like a gyro slider – that’s fun and could spell success if he commands everything well. However, the poor fastball shapes at a steep attack angle and mid extension have me out.
Keaton Winn (RHP)
Remember him? His splitter looks like a forkball at 89 mph and it’s why he’s a professional pitcher. The fastballs are around 95 mph and are spotted well, but boy are they blegh otherwise. Unless something is wildly different, I don’t think the Giants are going to pursue this and I don’t think you should, either.
Relevant Prospects
Thanks to MLB.com and Eric Logenhagen’s work at FanGraphs for many insights into these prospects. I also used our PLV Minor League Player App for additional data I couldn’t find elsewhere.
For pitchers in Triple-A, our PL Pro MiLB app was an invaluable resource, gathering all velocity, movement, extension, and HAVAA marks with ease. For example, here’s Kohl’s Drake’s Triple-A slider card this season inside the app. Unlock this app and many more with PL Pro.
Jack Choate (LHP, AA, Age 24) – Watch Video
He looks like a SWATCH through-and-through. It’s a low arm, cross-body slot that allows him to miss bats with his heater and destroy RHB with his changeup away, but he lacks a destructive breaker to LHB, with the main breaker as a curveball that lives in the 70s. Walks are an issue due to the mechanics (51 issued in 102.2 frames of Double-A last year), though he displayed far better control (37 walks) in Single-A and Double-A in 111.2 frames the previous season, and it seems as though those issues can be ironed out. If he gets a chance, there may be something here, though I’d wait and see.
Joe Whitman (LHP, AA, Age 24) – Watch Video
Like Choate, there’s promise in Whitman from the left-side, but he’s not a standard SWATCH – he’s less cross-body with a major focus on his well-commanded slider. He has a good fastball – not elite – that he can locate well, and the changeup doesn’t seem to be favored weapon to RHB (I could be wrong there!). Watching his video, there looks to be a bit more polish in Whitman’s mechanics, though he had a few games where his feel left him that he’s sure to refine in time. I see a back of the rotation arm here – more if the secondaries fill out and the fastball can do a little more.
Hunter Dryden (RHP, A, Age 23) – Watch Video
Huh. It’s surprisingly hard to find a whole lot about the DIII graduate, drafted in 17th round by the Giants in 2024, and I want to see a whole lot more. That linked video is Dryden fanning ten in four innings of relief work in the Single-A semi-finals, rooted in what seems to be a Lincecum/Tong-esque delivery that dips and drives, leading to both good extension, vert, and a low attack-angle that allows a mid-90s fastball excel upstairs. He’s been reported to have a developing slider and changeup, though what I see here looks to be more polished than previous reports. Given his age, Dryden could move quicker than others up the system, and I really hope I can get more information this year.
Yunior Marte (RHP, A, Age 22) – Watch Video
Acquired last year in the Mike Yazstremski deal from the Royals, Marte has mid-90s velocity with a mid-to-upper 80s slider and has showcased great control while failing to cross the desired strikeout-per-inning threshold that suggests a fun fantasy breakout pick. Last year was his first full season, though, and there could be more in the tank in time.
Argenis Cayama (RHP, A, Age 19) – Watch Video
At just ninteen years old, Cayama is further along than expected, boasting few walks in his 62.1 innings of 2025 with a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a decent slider + changeup. We’re hoping for more to come as he ages, and don’t expect him in the bigs until 2027 at the very earliest.