Yet another new frontrunner has emerged in California’s topsy-turvy race for governor.
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey released Wednesday shows Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell edging past Republican Steve Hilton for the lead.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted March 7-9 found Swalwell, who represents the eastern Bay Area, at 17%, up from 14% in mid-February. Hilton, a Republican commentator, slipped from 17% to 13%.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, also a Republican, polled at 11.4%, followed closely by billionaire Democratic activist Tom Steyer at 11%.
Another 24.5% of voters say they are still undecided, leaving the race wide open as California heads toward the June 2 primary. The top two finishers, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election to determine who succeeds Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term limited.
The results of an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey released on March 11, 2026. (KTLA)
“Rep. Swalwell’s support increased among Democratic voters in the past month from 23% to 27%, along with Tom Steyer, whose support among this group also increased from 12% to 16%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “A plurality of the independent electorate is undecided, 39%, while 12% support Swalwell and Hilton respectively, and Republicans are split between Hilton, 38%, and Bianco, 34%.”
Support for former congresswoman Katie Porter, once considered a frontrunner in the race, fell from just short of 10% in February to 8.4% in the latest survey.
Several other prominent Democrats, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, polled around 3%.
Mahan was a late entry to the race and earned the backing of billionaire developer Rick Caruso, but has yet to gain traction.
Other Poll Findings:
Gov. Newsom holds a 45% job approval rating among likely voters, up one point from February, while 40% disapprove of the job he is doing.
President Donald Trump holds a 28% job approval among Californians, while 64% disapprove.
The top issue for California voters continues to be the economy (37%), followed by housing affordability (22%), threats to democracy (11%), immigration (8%), and healthcare (7%).
A majority of California voters (53%) think the issue of homelessness is getting worse, 33% think it is staying the same, and 15% think it is getting better.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
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