Back in 2018, Democrat Doug Chaffee broke Republicans’ longtime unanimous grip on all five seats on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. With Chaffee now termed out of office, voters will pick his successor to represent the 4th District, beginning with the June 2 primary, which uses the Top Two system in this technically nonpartisan race, followed by a Nov. 3 runoff.

The board now comprises three Democrats to two Republicans. Incumbent Democrats Katrina Foley in the 5th District and Vincent Sarmiento in the 2nd District are running for reelection, and face Republican challengers. 

But it’s the open 4th District Republicans most hope to flip. Of the four candidates running, the one most likely to head to November is Democrat Connor Traut, mayor of Buena Park. He’s backed by Chaffee and other party honchos. Also on the ballot is Democrat Rose Espinoza, a city councilmember in La Habra. 

Here I’m concentrating on the mano a mano between Tim Shaw and Fred Jung, both of whom I interviewed. The winner likely will get that second November slot. Republican Shaw is a member of the OC Board of Education and government affairs director for the Pacific West Association of Realtors. Jung switched from Democrat to independent. He’s also CEO of Yerba Prima, a supplements company. 

Oddly, Jung is endorsed by the Lincoln Club, which identifies as a conservative Republican organization. President Brandon Day told me Jung is favored by club entrepreneurs, business owners and builders. “Fred has a money advantage over his other opponents, and we think Fred is a business leader,” he said. “Shaw is a great young man. He really doesn’t have a business background,” and is low on campaign funds. 

Shaw said he has raised $88,000, with $64,000 cash on hand. Jung said, “I’m the lead dog, sir,” raising $400,000, with $350,000 on hand. Quite a difference. But this is for the primary. The winner, Shaw or Jung, will gain contributions from Republicans and others hoping to defeat Traut if they advance to the general election.

Either way, whoever joins the Board of Supervisors will have to contend with a challenging fiscal picture.

The main reckoning of government finances is detailed in Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports. The key number is the unrestricted net position, a snapshot of financial soundness. For the county’s ACFR for June 30, 2025, the UNP was a negative $957 million. Auditor-Controller Andrew Hamilton concluded, “The main contributor of the deficit continues to be the reporting of the County’s proportionate share of net pension and net OPEB [Other Post-Employment Benefits, mainly retired medical] liabilities on the financial statements.”

Under Jung, Fullerton’s June 30, 2025 ACFR showed a UNP of a negative $116 million. Jung was elected in December 2020. So the last budget enacted before him produced the ACFR for June 30, 2021. It showed a UNP of a negative $190 million. That is, in four years he reduced the negative UNP by $74 million.

For Shaw’s OC Department of Education ACFR for June 30, 2025, the UNP was a positive $259 million. Shaw took office on July 1, 2020. In the ACFR for the year ending the day before that, June 30, 2020, the UNP was a positive $57 million. While on the board, Shaw helped boost the surplus by $202 million. So, both candidates improved net positions, but Shaw more so. 

“We’ve done some hard things while I’ve been on the City Council,” Jung said. “I cut the budget of the City of Fullerton. We did it by 3%. And I did it with the cooperation of labor, with the cooperation of our staff and a buy-in from our residents. I made the case, and I did it eloquently, pragmatically, that we have to be fiscally sound.”

“Government has got to stay focused on what its core mission is,” Shaw said. “It’s very easy to wander off topic. And there will always be someone asking you for a budget allocation for this project, or that good cause. We have to say no.”

Because global events have ignited energy prices, by June 2 budget concerns will just get worse. County vehicles will be paying more for fuel. And higher fertilizer prices will spike food costs.

Voters should pick the candidate who best can grapple with a county budget under increasing pressure.

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board.