A new poll released by UC Berkeley’s Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research in collaboration with Politico shows Republican Steve Hilton leading the California gubernatorial primary.
Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, currently holds approximately 19% of support among likely voters, with Democrat Tom Steyer in second at 13%, according to the poll. The poll surveyed 1,004 likely voters between Feb. 25 and March 3.
“The Democratic vote is sufficiently fragmented that no one of them has a higher level of support than Hilton,” said Jack Citrin, the director of the Institute of Governmental Studies and a campus professor emeritus of political science. “One fear among Democratic leaders is that the two Republicans would emerge as the top two, shutting out the majority party from having someone on the ballot.”
Under California’s top-two system, the two candidates from the primary who have the most votes are automatically moved to the general election, regardless of political party. With eight democratic candidates in the field, including Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer, the Democratic vote is currently split.
Paul Mitchell, political consultant and vice president of the voter data firm Political Data Inc., uses a simulator to predict election outcomes. Following the release of the Citrin Center-Politico poll, Mitchell claimed that the probability of a Republican versus Republican general election rose from 20% to 22%.
The data is not uniform across all surveys, with an Emerson College poll released March 11 showing Swalwell leading with 17%, with Hilton following at 13%.
Mitchell noted one potential criticism of the Citrin Center poll may be that it overrepresents younger and Hispanic voters, representing broader voter populations, rather than likely voters who tend to be “older, whiter and more affluent.”
“Republicans are coming together behind our campaign because they know we can finally end the failures of Democrat one-party rule,” Hilton said in a statement to The Daily Californian. “Our campaign is building a winning coalition of Republicans, independents, and Democrats.”
However, according to Mitchell, this coalition is not yet durable. He noted that though Hilton is polling above Chad Bianco, the other Republican candidate, it is not an unassailable lead, and it is still an open question whether or not both candidates will be in the primaries.
However, for Democrats to avoid a “nightmare scenario,” Citrin suggested that “either candidates will drop out or strategic voting will occur or one Democrat will surge.”