San Diego State looks to extend its winning streak to five games and become bowl eligible when it visits Fresno State in the battle for the Old Oil Can on Saturday at Valley Children’s Stadium. The game kicks off at 12:30 p.m. PT on FS1.

At 5-1 (2-0 Mountain West), the Aztecs need just one more win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2022. They’ve already eclipsed by two their total from last fall, when they lost their last six games and finished 3-9 in Sean Lewis’ first season as head coach. 

Both teams are coming off byes. Fresno State (5-2, 2-1) was routed at Colorado State two weekends ago, while the Aztecs had a second straight blowout win at Nevada.

These teams have been playing each other off and on since 1923. Next fall, they’ll both move into the reconfigured Pac-12, along with fellow MW teams Boise State, Utah State and Colorado State. They’ll join holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, and fellow newcomers Texas State in football and basketball and Gonzaga in basketball only. 

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the Week 9 matchup.  San Diego State is a 3.5-point favorite and the over/under is 47.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Here’s a look at how a few prognosticators foresee the Aztecs-Bulldogs matchup playing out.

After picking the Aztecs for three straight games, Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon is taking the Bulldogs to win and cover the spread. 

Dimers.com: San Diego State 24, Fresno State 23

After simulating the outcome of the Aztecs-Bulldogs matchup more than 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives San Diego State a 52% win probability to improve to 6-1 overall. It gives Fresno State a 58% chance to cover the spread, which it has as +2.5.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Aztecs a 65% chance of beating the Bulldogs on the road. This is the fourth straight game Connelly’s metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs to win.

Odds Shark: San Diego State 34, Fresno State 28

For the second straight game, Odds Shark’s computer predicts SDSU will win, cover the spread and the total will go over. It predicts the Aztecs to win 34.4-27.6, so we’ll round it to 34-28.

USA TODAY’s sports betting site has San Diego State more than covering the spread and the score to go just under.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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