PEORIA, Ariz. — What if the Padres don’t even need a fifth starter at the beginning of the season?
One of the main focuses of competition the team’s spring training could have essentially been a moot point.
The Padres have one of the best and deepest bullpens in the major leagues. And given favorable scheduling early, they could bolster that bullpen with an extra arm and lean on that group for a time.
It is at least something being discussed within the organization given the current state of the projected rotation and the depth of the Padres’ bullpen.
“Anything and all things are on the table,” manager Craig Stammen said Saturday. “And I don’t think anything has been decided.”
Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Randy Vásquez are locked into three rotation spots.
Joe Musgrove has a spot. But he is coming back from Tommy John surgery and is currently shut down after experiencing some fatigue following his first spring training start. Given that he threw three innings on March 4 and only a March 8 bullpen since, Musgrove cannot reasonably be expected to be available until at least the second turn through the rotation and perhaps a bit later.
Walker Buehler has likely earned a job after signing a minor-league contract at the start of spring.
That leaves a spot that many observers felt for a time was Germán Márquez’s to lose after he commanded his fastball and flashed something like his old severe curveball in his March 6 start. It still might be his to lose, as his major league contract, which guarantees him $1.75 million, would require him to consent to a minor-league assignment. But he was not at all sharp in a start Thursday night.
Left-handers Marco Gonzales and J.P. Sears have had good and bad outings. But Gonzalez followed up three scoreless innings in his previous appearance by allowing 11 runs on eight hits and six walks in two innings Saturday.
There is time for all the fifth starter candidates to make another two appearances.
The question the Padres are weighing internally, however, is whether they trust one of their current fifth starters to cover enough innings and keep them in games versus possibly being better off relying on the strength of their team (the bullpen) to cover an entire nine innings once or twice early.
The Padres play just six games in the season’s first eight days, which means they could conceivably get through at least their first 10 games without needing a fifth starter. If they strategically used a bullpen game at that point (or earlier), they could make it even further with just four starting pitchers on the roster.
Should they go that route, they would likely add an extra “bridge” reliever to the opening-day roster. They have gotten excellent springs from left-hander Kyle Hart and Jackson Wolf and righty Logan Gillaspie. Another option is to keep Márquez and have him on a short leash as a de facto opener or turn him into a reliever.
Going with nine relievers and planning on a bullpen game or two could potentially buy time for Musgrove to ramp back up and begin his season or Matt Waldron to get healthy and show he deserves a shot by pitching well on a rehab assignment. Or it could leave time for Triston McKenzie to correct the issues plaguing his command while pitching in the minor leagues.
There is also a glimmer of hope on the horizon that an infusion of payroll flexibility could come under a new owner — who could be in place sometime in the season’s first month — and that the Padres could add a starting pitcher via trade. (Or perhaps, the Padres could sign free agent Lucas Giolito in the unlikely event he remains on the market long enough.)
Given the timing of a sale, any potential outside addition likely does not figure into how to navigate the season’s first few weeks. Similarly, Griffin Canning will not be ready to join the rotation until at least May.
There is risk in a plan to lean on the bullpen.
Doing so could tax the relief corps earlier than is optimum, though the Padres will make avoiding that a priority. They would go into such a plan knowing it could blow up at any point and they might have to pivot.
If two of their starters lasted fewer than four or five innings on back-to-back days near the start the season, it would require an abundance of innings from relievers and leave the Padres far less likely to go forward with any notion of a bullpen game.
And if such a plan to cover innings is what the Padres go with at start, it will be merely a space filler.
“You can afford to be creative at least early in the season,” Stammen said. “If you try to be super creative throughout an entire 162(-game season), it might be difficult. But we’re pliable.”