Mock drafts are coming fast and furious. The Combine numbers are in. Big deals have been signed in free agency, and trades have been consummated, adding valuable picks to some teams and pushing others out of the first round.
But aside from the number one pick of Fernando Mendoza, no one seems to agree on much of anything. Many had superstar running back Jeremiyah Love going to the Chiefs, but then Kansas City signed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. Now, some are projecting Love to the Titans as a top 5 pick.
There is a shakeup within position groups, as well. Georgia offensive tackle Monroe Freeling is zooming up draft boards, now slotted in the top 10 in some.
But this is about the 49ers, and after the trade for Osa Odighizuwa, they are left with just first- and second-round picks on the first two days of the draft.
The consensus for a while now has been that the Niners’ biggest needs are edge rusher, wide receiver, and offensive line.
A trade for former Tampa Bay Buccaneer Mike Evans would seem to take some of the pressure off the receiver need. (General manager John Lynch also signed former Houston Texan Christian Kirk for depth.)
The addition of Odighizuwa, though he is an inside defensive lineman, should help the pass rush, so it is possible some of the urgency of an edge rusher might be lessened. (I felt the need for a defensive tackle was greater than that of an edge rusher since defensive ends Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams will, in theory, return, and stopping the run has been a weakness for a few years.)
But the mocks have the Niners all over the place with these three needs. Before the Evans signing, the majority had wide receiver as the pick, but with the difficulty of signing Trent Williams to a new deal, offensive tackle is often projected.
There are two ways to look at it from a fan’s standpoint: what will the 49ers do and what should the team do?
I am a big proponent of improving the offensive line, but one thing everyone seems to agree on is that this draft is loaded with wide receivers and offensive tackles who will go in the first round. (There are several edge rushers who are good, too.)
There will be runs on those positions, and Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan will rank players at those positions and monitor the runs that will occur.
Lynch went to the University of Georgia’s pro day. That’s where Freeling was working out. Only a few weeks ago, Freeling was viewed as a late-day 1 pick, squarely in the 49ers’ range. Now he is viewed as a top 10 selection. But will that happen? Will he fall to the late first as was earlier thought—or far enough Lynch will consider trading up?
How does Lynch stack the pass rushers?
Another factor to consider is who might fall to the Niners in the second. Without a third-round pick, the front office can’t simply take the top player at one of those positions in the first three rounds and consider the matter covered. They only have two early picks for three needs.
We know that Lynch loves to draft defensive linemen. In nine drafts, he has taken a defensive lineman four times. When considering the Niners lost two first-round picks in the Trey Lance trade (plus Lance), that comes out to four DLs in six drafts (and he selected a pass rusher with the first pick available in one of those post-Lance years).
Lynch and Shanahan also have a fondness for wide receivers, having taken two in the first round.
My gut tells me Lynch will go pass rusher again. The 49ers had the fewest sacks in the league last year (a paltry 20), and no one seems to give much credit to the return of San Francisco’s injured stars for fixing the matter. So that needs to be addressed.
That is what I think Lynch will do. However, it is not what I think he should do. With Bosa and Mykel returning, he should wait. With Trent approaching 38, even if (and I believe when) he agrees to a new deal, replacing him will be necessary soon.
This is a deep draft at wide receiver. With Evans and Kirk in the fold, Lynch can wait on that position. (And there have been reports that some talented lesser-known players, such as Cincinnati’s Jeff Caldwell, could fall to day 3.)
The pundits have also implied that while there will be solid offensive tackles available in the second round, they might not be starter or left-tackle quality.
The 49ers have four fourth-round selections, all late in the round, and two of them back to back. I can’t remember a team actually using back-to-back picks, so I suspect one of those will be traded.
Lynch has not been averse to moving up or back in the draft, and considering he has only six picks as of this writing, I don’t believe he will stay put.
My second prediction on that front is that he will not be selecting a player at the 49ers’ current spot in the second round, number 58. I think he will package one of the fourth-rounders and move up a few spots to get someone who begins to slide.
And he will trade out of the fourth—that pick becoming one in the fifth and one in the sixth.
I believe offensive tackle (or the offensive line in general) is the biggest need now, but Lynch does not invest a lot of capital in that position. I think he’ll go defensive end in the first, wide receiver in the second, and then hope for the best with one, maybe two, of those fourths.
Time will tell, and there is still the possibility he will sign someone (Joey Bosa, anyone?) who will change the calculus.
This is one of my favorite times of the year.