In a big Mountain West Conference game on Saturday afternoon, Fresno State (5-2) hosts a hot San Diego State (5-1) team. San Diego State is riding a four-game winning streak and they are one of only two teams that are undefeated in conference play with Fresno State at 2-1. Let’s delve into all of the information for this San Diego State vs. Fresno State prediction, including the full score info and other free NCAAF picks.
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SDSU comes into this game as a road favorite posted at -3.5 with the total sitting at 48.
San Diego State Faces a Better Team this Time
The Aztecs have won four in and row and while 2-0 in MWC play, the two teams they face have a combined record of 3-11 and a combined conference record of 1-5. In their last game, they were on the road and laid a 44-10 beatdown on Nevada, where they outscored them 35-0 in the first half, outgained them 409 yards to 254 yards, and forced two turnovers while not committing any. Jayden Denegal passed for 205 yards with two TDs, Lucky Sutton rushed for 81 yards and a score, and Jordan Napier had 110 receiving yards. SDSU easily covered as a 6.5-point favorite, and they have covered the spread in every game in their four-game win streak.
The Aztecs are more about the run (47th in rushing yards) than the pass (105th in passing yards) and their defense has been legit, ranking fifth in the nation, only giving up an average of 12.2 ppg. Denegal (1,097 yards 7 TD 2 INT) has two TD and no picks in each of the last two games, where he only took one sack. Sutton (531 yards 6 TD) leads three players with over 200 rushing yards, and in the last two games, he has totaled 194 yards and three TD. The Aztecs are 1-1 on the road and did not face Fresno State last season. SDSU will be facing a Fresno State defense that ranks 38th against the pass and 51st against the run. Turnovers Kill Fresno State
In their last game, Fresno State was on the road in a 49-21 loss to Colorado State, where they had four turnovers and did not force any. The turnovers were big, as they outgained the Rams 469 yards to 334 yards but they did give up 190 rushing yards. While E.J. Warner passed for 350 yards with three TDs, he was also picked off three times. Brandon Ramirez led the way with 41 rushing yards and Josiah Freeman had 89 receiving yards and two TDs. The Bulldogs failed to cover as a 4-point favorite and have failed to cover the spread in three of the last four games.
Fresno has a fairly balanced offense and they rank in the 60’s in the nation in both scoring and points against per game. Warner (1,486 yards 10 TD 9 INT) does have five TD in the last two games, but also has four INT. Bryson Donelson (405 yards 3 TD) is the lead rusher but has only totaled 80 yards in the last two games and Rayshon Luke (384 yards 5 TD) has totaled 121 yards in the last two games. Three players have at least 197 yards, led by Freeman (300 yards 4 TD). The Bulldogs will face an SDSU defense that ranks 25th against the pass and 22nd against the run. San Diego State vs. Fresno State PickSpread Pick for San Diego State vs. Fresno State San Diego State -3.5 (+4 Units)
San Diego State has won four in a row while Fresno State lost badly in their last game to a Colorado State team that is 2-5 and lost to the Aztecs by 21 points this season. The Bulldogs are not a high-scoring team and will face a good SDSU defense that ranks in the top 25 in the nation against the pass and the run. The Aztecs will play good defense in this game and run the ball well, facing an FSU team that gave up nearly 200 rushing yards in their last game. In terms of the San Diego State vs. Fresno State prediction, SDSU is the better team on defense, and they have the stronger running game. Add that up, and you have them winning and covering the spread.
Over/Under Pick for San Diego State vs. Fresno State
The total for both of these teams’ last game went Over and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. San Diego State scored at least 44 points in each of their last two games and faces a Colorado State team that gave up 49 points in its last game. The Aztecs will run the ball well in this game, moving the ball on the ground and the Bulldogs gave up nearly 200 rushing yards in their last game. Fresno State has a balanced offense and they will get their points, but not too many. However, San Diego State will score big in their third straight game, which is the main reason the Over is the way to go.
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