If voters were to cast their ballots today in the race for California’s next governor, two Republicans would land in the top-two spots while three Democrats would essentially be in a dead heat for third place, if new polling data released by the state’s Democratic Party is any indicator.
Political commentator Steve Hilton led the pack in the poll released Tuesday, March 24, with 16% voter support, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%.
Rep. Eric Swalwell, former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer each had about 10% voter support, though there were nuances.
For Swalwell, 9% of voters surveyed said they backed the lawmaker, with another 1% leaning toward voting for him. In Porter’s case, 8% said they’d vote for her, while another 2% leaned her way. Steyer had 7% support plus another 3% leaning his way.
The poll identified each candidate by their ballot designation title and party affiliation.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks is seen in this 2025 file photo. (Photo credit: Chris Olivarez)
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said the results — similar to other recent polls in the race for governor — show there’s a chance, however low, that Democrats could get locked out of the general election. In California, the top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the November contest.
“It’s yet another reminder of the undeniable fact that all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win,” Hicks said during a call with reporters Tuesday morning.
Five other Democrats polled in the single digits: former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan all had about 3% voter support. Former state Controller Betty Yee came in at 2% while California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond stood at 1%.
The new poll is the first of six that CADEM plans to release ahead of the June 2 election, part of its VOTER Index to provide snapshots of where things stand among the crowded field of candidates hoping to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.
It follows an open letter Hicks penned earlier this month, urging longshot Democrats to drop out due to concerns that having too many Democrats on the ballot would split Democrats’ votes and allow two Republicans to advance to the general election.
Such an outcome would be stunning in a deep-blue state where voters last elected a Republican governor two decades ago when Arnold Schwarzenegger won a second term.
Only one candidate heeded Hicks’ call to drop out, while most of the lower-polling Democrats who have held, or are currently in, elected office have remained in the race.
Hicks was asked Tuesday to define what he meant by a “viable” candidate.
“If you’re polling at 1 to 2%, do you have a path to get to 20 (percent)? That’s the question. Do you have a path to put you in a position to win the primary election, that puts you into the general election?” Hicks asked.
“All of these candidates are experienced in the political space,” he added. “They know when they’re viable and when they’re not.”
The VOTER Index poll was released less than 24 hours after USC canceled a scheduled debate for Tuesday night featuring a half-dozen of the top-performing candidates.
ABC7/KABC-TV and the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future had faced backlash for the methodology used to determine which candidates would get to participate — a formula which resulted in only candidates of color, among the top 10 in most polls, being excluded.
USC has defended the formula, including the “independence, objectivity and integrity” of the professor who came up with the scoring system.
Hicks said the debate’s cancellation was a “missed opportunity” for voters to hear from candidates. But he said he expected future opportunities for that to occur.
Although about three-quarters of survey respondents in the VOTER Index poll identified a candidate they would vote for, 24% were undecided and said they weren’t leaning toward any one candidate.
Hicks wasn’t surprised, noting that many voters are just now starting to pay attention to the race.
And although the two candidates leading the poll are Republicans, the chair of the California Democratic Party noted that each still garnered less than 20% voter support, which he called “kinda sad.”
Seventy days out from the primary election, Rusty said, there is still room for any candidate to move ahead.
CADEM’s poll was conducted March 12-17 by the L.A.-based public opinion research firm EVITARUS Research.
It reflected responses from 2,000 likely voters. The results have a margin of error of 2.19%.
The next VOTER Index poll is expected to be released no later than April 7.