Democrats received a warning sign about their chances of losing the California gubernatorial race to Republicans in a new poll made public on Tuesday.
Why It Matters
California’s unique electoral system has created a conundrum for Democrats ahead of the race to replace Governor Gavin Newsom later this year. The state has a “jungle primary” system, in which all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election.
Several polls have shown two Republicans advancing to the general election, raising the possibility that Democrats could be locked out of the race entirely.
Numerous prominent Democrats, but only two well-known Republicans, are running. The risk for Democrats is that their voters fail to coalesce and spread their support out across myriad candidates, giving Republicans the opportunity to snag the top two spots. Some in the party have expressed concerns about this possibility ahead of the June primary.
What To Know
A new poll from Evitarus, sponsored by the California Democratic Party, showed Republican commentator Steve Hilton leading with 16 percent, followed by Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, at 14 percent.
Three Democratic candidates—Representative Eric Swalwell, former Representative Katie Porter and billionaire Tom Steyer—each followed at 10 percent in the recent poll.
Three other Democrats followed at 3 percent support: former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. State Controller Betty Yee polled at 2 percent, while State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond polled at 1 percent.
The poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters from March 12-17, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks issued a statement warning about the poll.
“These results confirm the possibility – albeit a low one – of Democrats being ‘locked out’ of the General Election. Most importantly, it’s yet another clear reminder of an undeniable fact – all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win. I continue to call for them to so do,” he said. “Simply put, it’s the best way to ensure we elect a Democrat as our next Governor and that California continues its strong leadership at home and abroad.”
Newsweek reached out to the California Republican Party for comment via email.
What Do Other Polls Show About the California Governor Race?
Other polls have raised similar red flags for Democrats.
A Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll released in February showed Hilton leading with 14 percent, Porter following with 12 percent and Bianco at 12 percent. That means only a single percentage point determined whether Democrats would advance to the general election.
Swalwell followed at 11 percent, while Steyer placed fifth at 10 percent. Becerra, Villaraigosa and Yee all placed at 5 percent in that poll. The poll surveyed 1,657 adults in California from February 3-11, 2026. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A recent Emerson College poll, however, gave Swalwell a lead at 17 percent, followed by Hilton at 13 percent, Bianco at 11 percent, Steyer at 11 percent and Porter at 8 percent. That poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from March 7-9, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
GOP strategist Mike Madrid wrote on X on Tuesday: “California Democrats could just elevate one of the Republicans in the gubernatorial primary and prevent a lock out. It’s done all the time. I don’t get all the bed wetting.”
NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur wrote on X: “There’s a real chance Democrats split the vote between their many candidates for California governor, lock themselves out of the top-two election and gift the victory to Republicans. Would be one of the biggest self-owns in party history.”
What Happens Next
The primary is set for June 2, 2026, while the general election will be held on November 3, 2026. Forecasters give Democrats an advantage—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as being Safe Democrat.
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