The first domino tumbled for San Diego State’s basketball team Tuesday afternoon, when the Envision Sports Group indicated client BJ Davis intends to enter the transfer portal when it opens April 7.
The 6-foot-1 junior guard did not immediately return a text message and did not post a departure message on social media. However, he did re-post a photo of him from another account with “PORTAL” underneath it.
What that means in this crazy new world of college athletics is uncertain.
Most likely, it means Davis will be playing elsewhere next season and SDSU will need to replace his 10.8 points per game and buzzer-beating baskets at the end of halves and, in the case of the Mountain West Tournament semifinals against New Mexico, at the end of a tie game.
But SDSU did not confirm his exit, and coach Brian Dutcher and his staff are known to still be deep in discussions with players about their desire to return and at what price. An agency leaking a player’s intention to enter the portal two weeks before it opens could be a negotiating ploy to raise the price of staying.
“All of them value their experience here, but they all basically have a right, if they so choose, to check their value on the market,” said Dutcher, declining speak about Davis specifically. “Whether they’re officially in the portal or not, everybody is in the portal – people have to understand that.
“All players want to know what their value is on the open market. Then they weigh whether they value their experience maybe more than a better financial situation somewhere else. If their value is significantly higher somewhere else, then they have a decision to make.”
Davis, a three-star recruit from Modesto Christian High School, appeared in just 12 games as a freshman on an Aztecs team that reached the Sweet 16, then started all 31 as a sophomore after Reese Dixon-Waters sat out the season with a broken foot.
With Dixon-Waters healthy and Miles Byrd opting to withdraw from the NBA Draft, Davis returned to the bench and started only seven times. His minutes dropped from 24 to 22 per game, but his scoring average climbed from 9.0 to 10.8.
His other numbers ticked up slightly as well: 43.4% shooting, 37.4% from 3, 85.3% from the line, 3.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game.
He moved into the starting lineup as a point guard when freshman Elzie Harrington was injured, but he was less effective: 8.9 points per game, 36.7% shooting, 27.3% from 3.
He returned to the bench for the final seven games and averaged 12.4 points, including a career-high 30 in the regular-season finale against UNLV and the last-second layup in the dramatic 64-62 win a week later that put the Aztecs into the Mountain West championship game.
But he was known to be frustrated with his reduced role in an 11-man rotation, evidenced by ups and downs throughout the season.
When asked the week of the conference tournament about his plans for next season, Davis was non-committal, saying: “I haven’t really looked into the future.”
A year earlier, he faced a similar choice and, in an interview with the Union-Tribune last October, explained the reasoning behind his return despite the possibility of making more money at another program.
“I’m kind of a home-rooted player, you could say,” Davis said then. “There was really no question to do that and go somewhere else, because I know I could do everything I needed to do here. … That’s how my parents brought me up: If you start something, you’ve got to finish it.
“I’m kind of just planted where I’m at and work through that. That’s my mindset. (My parents) tell me the same thing: The grass isn’t always greener. Sometimes you’re in the best spot you’re in, and if you go somewhere else it might not be what you think it is.”
That mindset appears to have changed, leaving the Aztecs with an instant need in the backcourt with Dixon-Waters out of eligibility and Sean Newman Jr., who could possibly petition for another season, likely on his way out as well. Byrd, who is on track to graduate this spring, is considered the most likely among the players with remaining eligibility to leave, either to turn pro or chase a seven-figure check for his final season in college.
That leaves Harrington, redshirt junior Latrell Davis and junior Taj DeGourville as the only remaining scholarship guards from last season’s roster, along with incoming freshman Zach White. Many around the program rate DeGourville, who lost his starting spot five games into the season and averaged only 5.5 points, a good bet to enter the portal as well.
“People say, ‘Oh, this guy is going in the portal,’” Dutcher said. “Listen, if you have an agent, you’re already in the portal. They’re fielding calls on you every day. You don’t have to officially be in the portal for people to inquire if this guy’s available and here’s what we think he’s worth.
“That’s an everyday thing. It’s not just us, we’re not exclusive to it. It’s every program in the country.”