Just over one month since the field for the Los Angeles mayor’s race came together in the final hours before the filing deadline, a poll shows Mayor Karen Bass could be in trouble.

In the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, Bass is in the lead at 25% with councilmember Nithya Raman at 17%, reality tv star and Palisades Fire victim Spencer Pratt at 14%, community organizer Rae Huang at 8% and tech entrepreneur Adam Miller at 6%. Roughly 25% of voters are undecided.

“Generally speaking, throughout history, Angelenos tend to re-elect their mayors. You have to go back more than 20 years, back to 2005, to find the last mayor, James Hahn, who was not re-elected to office. So voters in Los Angeles tend to be pretty forgiving, even if they’re not seeing dramatic progress. But this poll, and this election, isn’t about broader progress on issues like housing and homelessness,” said Dan Schnur, a political communications lecturer at USC and UC Berkeley.

Schnur says this race is very much about Bass’ response to the Palisades Fire. And what she should be most concerned about is that only 31% of those polled view her favorably. More than half, 56%, have an unfavorable view of the incumbent mayor.

“These are very discouraging, if not downright devastating, poll numbers for Karen Bass. She’s running ahead of her opponents, only because her opponents are not very well known,” Schnur said.

Eyewitness News interviewed Bass earlier this month about the state of the race.

“I think the overall electorate is in a very sour mood. But, it just shows me that I have work to do, and I’m ready for the work. I have always worked very hard. I’m a workhorse, not a show horse,” Bass said. “And so, I’m ready to hit the streets and do what I need to do to get it across the finish line.”

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Raman says she’s very encouraged by the poll as it shows she’s the top challenger to Bass in the wide-open race.

“As someone who has jumped into this race just six weeks ago, to see that my candidacy is already in the top two, is really exciting. And I think the reasons that drew me to jump in this race — a sense of frustration with the way that things are moving in the city of Los Angeles, a sense of urgency that things needed to change. That feels like it’s being reflected in how the voters are engaging with my campaign. And I think we’ll continue to get that message out there and talk about how we can build a better, more affordable, functional city for every single resident of Los Angeles,” Raman said.

The first debate among the candidates was held on Monday night. Bass and Pratt did not participate.

The primary election is on June 2. If a candidate doesn’t receive more than 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will move on to November.

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