The central San Joaquin Valley’s business, political, labor and educational leaders agree on one thing: the politically purple region, with its growth potential and high rates of young people, shouldn’t be ignored by California’s gubernatorial candidates.
The eyes of the state were on Fresno and the Central Valley for a brief moment this week as seven gubernatorial candidates jockeyed for position in a crowded field to succeed Gavin Newsom.
Two Republican and five Democratic candidates were in town making their pitch to Valley votera at two separate gubernatorial forums held at Fresno colleges this week – one week after a separate forum in Los Angeles was canceled following criticisms that no candidates of color were included.
With a quarter of the state’s voters still undecided about who they want as governor, according to recent polling, the Valley presents an opportunity for candidates on both sides of the aisle.
“While we may not have the same population density as other more politically influential parts of the state, many of the issues that Valley residents are currently facing are a good reflection of the entire state,” said Blake Zante, executive director of The Maddy Institute.
The Valley-based nonpartisan public policy institute co-hosted Wednesday’s candidate forum at Fresno State with a coalition of 30 agricultural business advocacy groups. The conversation focused on water, deregulation and affordability was attended by 600 people. Zante said in an interview the region is an important “barometer” for California voters.
People see the Valley as a growth area with opportunities for economic development and investment, including because of the High Speed Rail, he said. It’s also one of the more affordable regions compared to the rest of the state, where the population is projected to grow, he said.
California gubernatorial candidates, from left, Xavier Becerra, Chad Bianco, Steve Hilton, Matt Mahan, Katie Porter, and Antonio Villaraigosa sit on stage during a forum hosted by the Western Growers Association at Fresno State on Wednesday, April 1, 2026. CRAIG KOHLRUSS ckohlruss@fresnobee.com
Despite lower voter turnout compared to other parts of the state and the region’s reputation for being overlooked and ignored in favor of other politically influential parts of the state, Zante thinks “this time around, the Valley is getting a little bit more attention.” Especially after the cancellation of the candidate forum at USC, he said.
An estimated 300 people attended a separate forum at Fresno City College on Wednesday afternoon hosted by the UC Merced Community and Labor Center and a coalition of labor organizations. Candidates discussed their plans to fight President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda, improve healthcare access and address the region’s environmental and affordability challenges.
Jorge Monterey-Luna, a program director with the Tulare County-based nonprofit Valley Voices, said in his opening remarks that while the Valley consistently lags behind the rest of the state in education, employment, earnings, and health — it has the highest rate of the population under the age of 18.
“The Central Valley is also the future of the state,” Monterey-Luna said.
According to a recent survey published by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, five candidates are in a close competition for the June 2 primary: Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R), Katie Porter (D) former U.S. Representative from Orange County, Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer and U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell of Dublin Swalwell.
The top two contenders will face off in the Nov. 3 general election.
Frontrunners Swalwell and Steyer were notably absent from Wednesday’s forums, citing scheduling conflicts. On Wednesday, Steyer announced plans to host a town hall in Fresno on Tuesday, April 7.
Bryan Beltran, the Central Valley Young Democrats Regional Director and a city hall staffer, said he was excited to see how many young people including high schoolers attend Wednesday evening’s forum.
Beltran said even though Trump made inroads with young Latino men in 2024, young Latinos and Latinas in the Valley are mobilizing in protest of Trump’s immigration policies, citing the student walkouts in protest of ICE across Fresno as well as the “No Kings” protests.
Democrats could have an uphill battle when it comes to the Central Valley, based on Newsom’s track record.
During the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election, Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced and Tulare counties all voted to recall Newsom, according to data from the Secretary of State. By comparison, only 38% of voters statewide were in favor of the recall.
In statewide races, Fresno County tends to vote to the right of itself compared to presidential elections, said Isaac Gudino, regional director for the California Democratic Party Region Five.
“I don’t see that changing in 2026 unless something massive happens,” Gudino said.
Dave Puglia, CEO of Western Growers said that candidates need to pay attention to the region because California swing voters tend to be concentrated in the Central Valley. The Valley is key to the “fishhook strategy,” he said, which refers to a historical GOP strategy to secure wins by winning majorities in Republican-leaning counties throughout the Central Valley, Inland Empire and near San Diego that GOP strategists relied on for wins in Sacramento.
Valley voters have proven in recent years that they’re more loyal to an individual candidate than to a political party, he said.
Puglia’s message to candidates was clear: “you’d have to be crazy not to come to the Central Valley.”
Fresno Bee Reporters Bob Rodriguez and Erik Galicia contributed to this report.
California gubernatorial candidates, from left, Chad Bianco, Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, Steve Hilton, Katie Porter, and Antonio Villaraigosa stand on stage at the conclusion of a forum hosted by the Western Growers Association at Fresno State on Wednesday, April 1, 2026. CRAIG KOHLRUSS ckohlruss@fresnobee.com
The Fresno Bee
Melissa Montalvo is The Fresno Bee’s accountability reporter. Prior to this role, she covered Latino communities for The Fresno Bee as the part of the Central Valley News Collaborative. She also reported on labor, economy and poverty through newsroom partnerships between The Fresno Bee, Fresnoland and CalMatters as a Report for America Corps member.