But every energy source comes with challenges, and neighboring states such as Utah, Nevada, and New Mexico are aggressively pursuing next-generation geothermal projects.
In theory, the best place to develop those first-of-a-kind plants would be California, with its energy-affordability woes and status as a major global economy.
“Utah has low prices, and geothermal is still expensive,” said Thomas Hochman, director of infrastructure and energy policy at the Foundation for American Innovation. “If you want to bring geothermal down to cost parity with other technologies, you have to sell it to Californians. As a result, geothermal scaling runs through California.”
For the most part, however, developers are steering clear of the Golden State. Companies such as Fervo Energy, XGS Energy, and Sage Geosystems — three of the biggest next-generation startups — are based in Houston and are pursuing debut projects in Utah, New Mexico, and Texas itself. Zanskar, a developer using modern prospecting methods to tap conventional geothermal resources, is headquartered in Salt Lake City. States such as Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, and Oregon are “really exciting” as potential next areas for development, Edwards said.
“If California ever fixes CEQA,” he added, “it could be huge.”
The regulatory hurdles represent “the only real barrier” to geothermal taking off in the Golden State, said Wilson Ricks, a Princeton University researcher who focuses on geothermal.
“You can find projects pretty much all across the Western states but very few, if any, in California, despite it being the biggest potential market,” Ricks said.
“It’s stark. People are exploring projects in Texas, which has far, far worse-quality resources than the ones in California,” he added. “That’s because of the regulatory environment there. So the fact that regulatory barriers are going to remain in place doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that California’s going to be leaping ahead on geothermal anytime soon.”
In response to emailed questions, Fervo said it maintains leases near the Salton Sea region, an area with vast geothermal potential. But those parcels aren’t currently under development since the state’s permitting regime makes investing in drilling too risky.
“With the right legislative and permitting reforms, similar to those that were proposed in AB 527, the state could better position in-state resources for development and unlock the enormous economic benefits that come with local clean energy development,” said Sarah Harper, Fervo’s senior policy and regulatory affairs associate.
A revolution for geothermal?
Not everyone is so bearish. Ormat, the nation’s largest geothermal operator of conventional sites, said the fact that the vetoed bill passed in the Legislature without a single no vote, just a handful of abstentions, shows there’s political support for geothermal “like we haven’t seen in the past.”
“It’s like a revolution for geothermal,” said Marisol Collons, Ormat’s manager of communications and government affairs. “We’re still highly optimistic about the future and ready to kickstart all our next legislative sessions across the country.”
While Fervo lamented the small number of groups that dissented on the bill, the company said the fact that there were “more environmental groups in favor than there were ones opposed, or even neutral” left it feeling hopeful about the possibility of future legislation.
For XGS, a next-generation company whose technology forgoes fracking and minimizes its water usage by keeping the fluid for its operations contained in a closed tube, California remains “the highest-priority market.”
“We feel that California provides a unique combination from both a resource perspective and a market perspective,” said Lucy Darago, chief commercial officer at XGS. “It’s a high-demand market that really needs the attributes that geothermal brings.”
The company backed the bill and said categorical exemptions from CEQA permitting for drilling would have shaved anywhere from six months to two years off its development efforts.
“It’s disappointing, but I’m optimistic that a future iteration of the bill will pass,” Darago said.
The key, she said, is time. Geothermal will grow in California no matter what — of that, Darago said, she’s certain. The question is whether that happens in time to stave off blackouts and slash emissions on the trajectory the state has set for its electrical system.
“The industry is going to happen. It will get there,” she said. “But if it’s going to get there on a timeline that’s meaningful for California’s resource-adequacy challenges and climate goals, we’ll need some of these changes.”
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