Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton continue to lead a congested field of Democrats in the California governor’s race, according to the latest poll released by the California Democratic Party on Tuesday, April 7.
However, the tracking poll — a constant measurement of voters’ attitudes — doesn’t bake in President Donald Trump’s Sunday, April 5, endorsement of Hilton, a former Fox News host.
Trump’s endorsement could lessen the chance that Hilton and Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, finish first and second in the June 2 primary, which would lock Democrats out of the governorship in a deep-blue state.
California Democrats are spending six figures on a tracking poll to gauge how gubernatorial candidates from both parties are faring in the leadup to the primary.
The latest poll of 1,200 likely voters, conducted via phone between March 31 and Sunday, April 5, found Hilton and Bianco tied at 14%.
That’s a change from the first poll conducted from March 12 to 17, which had Hilton at 16% and Bianco at 14%. Further clouding the results, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Rep. Eric Swalwell was the highest-polling Democratic candidate at 12%, an improvement of two percentage points from the first poll.
He’s followed by Democratic billionaire and environmentalist Tom Steyer at 11%, up 1% from the last poll. Democrat and former Orange County congressmember Katie Porter came in at 7%, down 3% from March.
Three other Democrats — former U.S. Secretary of Health Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa — are tied at 4%, a boost of 1% for each candidate compared to last month’s poll.
Rounding out the field is Democrat and former state Controller Betty Yee, who polled at 1%, down a percentage point from March.
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, a Democrat, came in last at less than 1%. He polled at 1% in March.
California’s primary system advances the top two vote-getters in the governor’s race, regardless of their party. With no clear frontrunner among Democrats, there’s a chance — however remote — that Bianco and Hilton advance to the November general election.
Before the March 6 filing deadline, state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks wrote an open letter urging longshot Democratic candidates to drop out.
Just one — former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon — did so. Hicks’ letter faced pushback from candidates and others who accused California’s Democratic leadership of trying to manipulate the election.
The tracking poll’s numbers mirror other surveys showing a tight race and no clear favorite among Democrats. Last month, Hicks said the March tracking poll is “yet another reminder of the undeniable fact that all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win.”
Results from the Democrats’ tracking poll will be released every seven to 10 days until early May. EVITARUS Research, a public opinion research firm, is conducting the polls.