Prediction market Polymarket has seen a surge in activity backing California hopeful Tom Steyer in his bid for governor.

Bets rose sharply over the past few days, handing Steyer a 57 percent chance of winning over his Democratic rival Representative Eric Swalwell, who has slid into fourth place behind GOP candidate Steve Hilton, who has a 7 percent chance of winning, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former California Representative Katie Porter, who each have a 13 percent chance of winning.

However, this is all prior to the June 2 primaries, at which point the numbers will shift as voters coalesce behind their party’s candidate, but who that is may still dampen enthusiasm in the face of allegations against Swalwell and President Donald Trump picking his candidate.

Why It Matters

The California gubernatorial race has taken some sharp turns in recent days as allegations of sexual assault and sexually inappropriate behavior were levied against Swalwell, which has led to increasing pressure from members of his party to exit the race. Swalwell has strongly denied the allegations, and on Friday night released a video on X stressing his denial of any misconduct.

The turmoil has threatened to reorder California’s top-two primary, where a splintered Democratic field has heightened the chances of two Republicans advancing if Swalwell’s support collapses and fails to consolidate behind another Democrat.

What To Know

Polling from earlier this week saw Hilton with a slight lead over his rivals, with Swalwell and Porter splitting the vote among Democrats. Hilton, a political commentator, former political adviser, and contributor to Fox News, has received Trump’s endorsement—a critical step to consolidating support as the Democrats remained fractured.

Swalwell on Polymarket had a 60 percent chance of winning, and on Kalshi got close to 70 percent before he crashed in both markets down to only about three to five percent chance of winning. Steyer was hovering around seven to 10 percent over the past week before seeing his fortunes flipped, and Porter was dropping to the low single digits before seeing a similar, but much smaller, rally over the past few days.

Porter served in the House from 2019 to 2025, at which point she ended her term as she tried and failed to win a seat in the Senate. She and Swalwell had roughly even support among voters with 13 percent each compared to Hilton’s 14 percent and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, also at 14 percent.

That fairly even field has now been upended by the allegations made against Swalwell, although it remains unclear why Steyer, a billionaire businessman, has seen such strong backing in prediction markets.

As of midday Saturday, Steyer has seen his support surge to over 50 percent, hitting 57 percent in the morning and sliding to 55 by around noon. Porter sits right behind him at 13 points, tied with Mahan, and ahead of Hilton with just seven points.

Steyer has also topped Kalshi’s odds with 51 percent, followed by Mahan at 16 percent and Porter at 12 percent. Porter’s inability to win a Senate seat might factor into her inability to gain a sizeable support from voters or prediction markets, while Mahan would follow in the footsteps of former mayors moving to Sacramento, such as current Governor Gavin Newsom, who was mayor of San Francisco before his current term, Pete Wilson, who was mayor of San Diego, and others.

What People Are Saying

Representative Nancy Mace, a South Carolina Republican, on X: “I don’t care what party you’re in. If you sexually assault or sexually harass your employee (or anyone), you have no business serving in Congress. I called on Tony Gonzales to resign – now I’m calling on Eric Swalwell to resign.”

Former Representative Katie Porter, a California Democrat, on X Friday: “In light of the allegations of sexual assault, Eric Swalwell should resign from Congress and end his campaign for public office. But those decisions do not absolve him of taking responsibility for his misconduct, especially when he has attempted to silence and retaliate against these victims. These allegations merit full investigations, and these women deserve the right to pursue justice. Too often, men escape any consequence for sexual misconduct by stepping out of power. That is a first and necessary step towards justice because it limits the ability for further harm. I stand with these women as they seek justice.”

GOP strategist Mike Madrid wrote on X on Tuesday: “California Democrats could just elevate one of the Republicans in the gubernatorial primary and prevent a lock out. It’s done all the time. I don’t get all the bed wetting.”