San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is touting a new optimistic poll in his struggle to leave the back of the pack in the crowded race for California governor.
An internal poll of 900 likely primary voters — 100 of whom were Republicans and 800 described by the survey as “open to Democratic candidates” — says Mahan has floated to third place among Democratic candidates in the June 2 election. Yet the poll shows Mahan is still well behind the remaining frontrunners at 8% favorability, while Republican candidate Steve Hilton saw 25%, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer got 16% and former Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter got 10%.
Polling firm Impact Research conducted the survey from April 8-12, around the time multiple sexual assault allegations forced the race’s frontrunner, Congressman Eric Swalwell, to resign from Congress and drop his candidacy.
It comes as Mahan’s campaign is leaning heavier into the San Jose mayor’s moderate Democrat branding. The slogan “DEMOCRAT for Governor” now emblazons his campaign website. It also appears on new TV ads emphasizing Mahan’s working-class upbringing amid a $3 million statewide media blitz this week. It’s a contrast to “Getting California Back to Basics,” an older slogan associated with Mahan’s mayoral agenda to get tougher on crime and force homeless people into treatment.
The rebrand comes amid Mahan’s staggering financial support from Silicon Valley tech executives and billionaires, as well as the involvement of conservatives in his campaign. Mahan has raised $12 million, while outside committees have raised $23 million independently to support him. The San Jose mayor has tailored his campaign as a bipartisan movement, peeling moderates away from the extremes of both political parties. And while running as a Democrat, he’s separated himself from progressives by taking a stance against California’s proposed billionaire tax.
“It’s a recognition that only one Democrat is going to make the top two and the most likely voters in a Democratic primary are strong Democrat supporters, the base of the party that tends to be more liberal,” Garrick Percival, chair of the Political Science Department at San Jose State University, told San José Spotlight. “Back to basics — although certainly effective for him in the mayoral contest — means something different in a Democratic primary in California, and you’re probably going to see him position himself further to the left.”
The internal campaign polling memo strikes at this realization.
“When voters hear biographical information about Mahan, including growing up living paycheck-to-paycheck and teaching middle school in a working-class neighborhood, Mahan jumps to first place among the Democratic candidates,” the memo reads.
The poll is fueling his team with fresh optimism after recent internal struggles with the departure of campaign strategist Eric Jaye, a San Francisco-based consultant who has been in Mahan’s political orbit for years.
“Our polling confirms what anyone who’s met Mayor Matt already knows: They just need to get to know him,” Tasha Dean, Mahan’s spokesperson, told San José Spotlight. “His working-class background, his proven record of results and his character resonate — because he’s lived the California dream. And he’s running to make sure every Californian can too.”
Steve Maviglio, a Sacramento-based political consultant, is cautious about the poll’s suggestions.
“Any internal poll you have to take with a grain of salt — it’s written by you, designed by you,” Maviglio told San José Spotlight. “That said, there’s no doubt about it — the fallout from Swalwell’s demise is scattering among all the candidates with a few extra percentage points. I don’t know what it gets you if you’re so far back in the pack. Everybody is trying to grab a piece of that pie.”
On Thursday, a poll conducted by Emerson College Polling from April 14-15 showed two Republicans in the lead, with Hilton at 17% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steyer tied at 14%. The poll puts Mahan at 5%.
Percival said the runway is getting smaller.
“The campaign is clearly interested in trying to show momentum, but the numbers suggest that he still has a lot of work to do and there are a lot of people who don’t know who he is,” Percival said. “The real question for the campaign is do they have enough time to raise his profile in such a short period. This is a primary and a lot of people don’t tune in until the very last minute, and votes come in 30 days before the election.”
Contact Brandon Pho at [email protected] or @brandonphooo on X.