In a city where $10 beers and $17 cocktails have become the norm, a glass of wine has suddenly become the most expensive intoxicant of all, with the rate rapidly approaching $25.
At La Mar Cebicheria (opens in new tab), an upscale Peruvian restaurant on the Embarcadero, 5 ounces of Russian River Valley chardonnay will set you back $35. A budget-conscious diner might opt for an Alsatian grand cru riesling priced at a reasonable-seeming $24 a glass — considerably more, sommeliers say, than it cost only a few years ago. If it seems outrageous to drop as much on one glass of wine as you might on a casual lunch, rest assured that industry pros also find it hard to digest. “I went to a restaurant in Marin the other day, and a glass of Sancerre was $25,” one longtime San Francisco somm says.
Not only is the price of wine by the glass already sky-high, it’s steadily creeping higher. Over the past couple of years, the average glass of white at New American restaurant Octavia (opens in new tab) has climbed 12.5% from about $16 to more than $18. Since the spring of 2024, the average glass of red at Prospect (opens in new tab) has risen more than 16%, from $18 to $21.
More specifically, the top end of restaurant wine lists has achieved near-escape velocity. At the 2-year-old Presidio restaurant Dalida (opens in new tab), each category of wine by the glass includes at least one selection listed at $30 or more, with several topping $45; there’s nothing under $18 to be had.
Rising prices — for just about anything — are nothing new. But San Francisco’s wine-flation seems driven by a unique set of factors, including tariffs, ever-increasing labor costs, changes in American drinking habits, and human psychology — a combination almost as alchemical as fermentation itself. It was only in 2016 that former Chronicle food critic Michael Bauer lamented (opens in new tab) that the average entree in this city had crossed the $30 threshold. Less than a decade later, a single glass of Barolo isn’t far behind.
‘Prices are going to go up even more’
For decades, the rule of thumb for wine pricing has been simple and stable: Operators charge as much per glass as they paid wholesale for the bottle, which typically yields five 5-ounce pours. But as of August, all wine from the European Union is subject to a 15% levy. That’s less than the 30%-50% the Trump administration initially floated but still enough to cause a jump in wholesale prices that wine drinkers are only now beginning to feel.
Russian Hill’s newest wine destination is Bar Bibi. | Source: Andy Omvik for The Standard
Joel Arias with his French Bulldog, Dolcetto, at Frenchie Wine Bar. | Source: Minh Connors for The Standard
As tariffs upend wine math, purveyors who are committed to keeping prices low, like Bahman Safari of Nob Hill’s Bar Bibi, are resorting to creative workarounds to ensure that customers don’t feel hoodwinked and that inventory continues to sell. One approach Safari applies is “mixed markups” — essentially, slightly overcharging for some wines so he can undercharge for others. For example, he might tack a dollar or two onto the price of a glass in the $15 or $16 range, “so if I want to have a nebbiolo that was a little high at $20, I can lower it to $17.”
He’s also doing the more obvious thing: avoiding importing wines that are subject to high tariffs. Safari has long championed lesser-known, usually less expensive varietals and appellations, and he encourages employees to converse with customers and learn their preferences. That way, staff can steer cost-conscious drinkers toward unfamiliar yet more affordable wines — say, a Spanish albariño for someone with a taste for French Sancerre. It’s a win-win: Guests save money and experience the delight of discovery.
The full impact of the Trump tariffs may not be felt yet, meaning the price of wine may continue creeping up no matter what operators do. Joel Arias of Noe Valley’s new wine bar Frenchie has received emails from vendors goading him to put in orders sooner rather than later. “They say, ‘Do it now, because in the next couple of weeks, prices are going to go up even more,’” he says.
Other restaurateurs say they feel fortunate things haven’t gotten worse. Adam Manson of Mission “wine tavern” Big Finish says his wholesalers ate half the increase from tariffs, while European wineries absorbed the rest. But he’s not sure how long that will hold. “My vendors are saying we have a ton of stock,” he says. “We’re good for a while, but eventually we’ll have to raise some prices.”
Squeezed by labor costs and decreased drinking
Erin Rickenbacker of El Chato, a lively Spanish wine bar in the Mission, says she doesn’t have to focus on margins the way a sommelier at a cost-obsessed restaurant might. As a business owner, “I own the spreadsheets,” she says. “So the way I price wines by the glass is, it’s better to have asses in seats and vibes going.”
Owners Erin Rickenbacker, left, and Rafa Saenz at El Chato, a Spanish wine bar in the Mission. | Source: Morgan Ellis/The Standard
Rickenbacker believes inflation is partially a matter of psychology, and it’s easier to jack up prices on products that are already perceived as expensive. Going from $8 to $9 is a bigger percentage jump and, therefore, more noticeable to a consumer than upping a glass from $15 to $16. “It’s an easy way to make money,” she says of slightly bumping up the price of wines by the glass. “Greasing the wheels, it becomes easier still to go from $23 to $25.”
The rising cost of labor is as big a problem as tariffs, spurring owners to look for ways to bring in every dollar they can. To keep labor costs down, Rickenbacker and El Chato co-owner Rafa Saenz work behind the bar every night of the week. “If we were to have more staff, there’s no way we could have the same prices,” she says.
Wine sellers also have to contend with the fact that younger generations aren’t drinking as much (opens in new tab)as their elders. At the local level, the pervasive opinion that Americans — Gen Z in particular — are decreasing their alcohol intake has less to do with wellness and more to do with egregious prices. “Yes, there’s a subset of 21- to 26-year-olds who, five years ago, went through their schools being shut down for two years, and they have a weird relationship with alcohol,” says one wine rep. “But right now, wine costs so much, they’ll have a cocktail or just one glass.”
‘Is it sustainable? Maybe not’
That same purveyor has a harsh assessment of San Francisco’s dining scene when it comes to wine pricing. After the global and national crises of the past five years, restaurateurs have grown desperate and cynical, he says, with some essentially saying “Fuck it” and charging whatever they can get away with.
And it’s not just customers getting fleeced but wholesalers too. The rep says he’s seen restaurant owners commit to buying 80 cases of wine after negotiating a $10 price per bottle from the distributor under the expectation that that’s what they’ll be charging per glass. “Then they’ll turn around and price it at $16 for Joe Schmo who walks in,” he says.
Once prices go up, they tend not to fall. The sommelier who expressed disbelief over the $25 Sancerre notes that after a string of low-yield vintages, culminating in a destructive late-spring frost across Bordeaux and Burgundy in 2021, European wine producers hiked their prices. But even after bountiful harvests in 2022 and 2023, those prices never came back to Earth. “Is it sustainable? Maybe not,” he says. “But that’s where we are.”
Before he opened Big Finish in March, Manson worried about a consumer revolt led by people feeling gouged by $20 for a glass of gamay. He priced his wines on the low end to capitalize on that dissatisfaction. To stay ahead of the curve, he’s chasing deals wherever he can — wines from Croatia are a good value right now — sniffing out inventory liquidation sales and constantly rejiggering his wine list. “Unfortunately, it’s tough,” he admits.
Manson is sympathetic to restaurateurs who are just trying to pay the bills. But he hears feedback from his regulars that too many restaurants overcharge for wine, souring the overall experience. “So they don’t go back,” he says, “except on special occasions.”
In the meantime, his gambit is working. Over the first seven months, Big Finish has accrued a stable of loyal customers whose patronage Manson attributes to his efforts to keep by-the-glass prices low. Of the more than 40 wines available by the glass, all but three are listed at $16 or less. “It promotes a good neighborhood business,” he says.