Two Republicans continue to lead the crowded field of candidates for California governor, while a Democrat who had been polling in the low single digits just a few weeks ago has surged to the top of his party’s candidates in the latest poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party.
Political commentator Steve Hilton, at 16%, claimed the top spot, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, at 14%, in the survey unveiled on Monday, April 20. In the last VOTER Index poll about two weeks ago, the two Republicans were tied at 14%. Notably, that earlier poll was conducted before President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton.
Democrats, meanwhile, have seen a shake-up in the race after Eric Swalwell, who had been one of the party’s top candidates, dropped out and subsequently resigned from Congress amid allegations of sexual misconduct and assault earlier this month. (Swalwell has denied the allegations.)
In the latest VOTER Index poll, amongst Democrats, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who was at just 4% about two weeks ago in this same poll, shot to 13%, tying with billionaire environmental advocate Tom Steyer.
Former Rep. Katie Porter, who polled at 7% in CADEM’s last poll, bounced up to 10% but remained in fifth place overall.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan came in at 5%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 2% and, at 1% each, were Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Controller Betty Yee.
Yee, earlier Monday, ended her campaign for governor, announcing her decision an hour before the latest VOTER Index poll was released.
Swalwell, who had already exited the race before the latest poll was conducted, also came in at 1% in the latest VOTER Index.
Meanwhile, the percentage of undecided voters dropped from 24% in the last VOTER Index poll to 20% — an indication that voters are starting to pay attention to the race, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said in a call with reporters.
Hicks, on Monday, doubled down on his insistence that candidates stuck in the low single-digits in polls drop out. He thanked Yee for ending her campaign, saying he hoped other candidates would follow her lead.
Hicks did not call out candidates by name, but he said those who “are stalled in the single digits, seeing financial resources dry up and/or are failing to pick up additional support” need to consider leaving the race to avoid splitting the Democratic votes so much that two Republicans end up advancing to the general election.
“Ballots are going to be in the hands of voters in roughly two weeks, and the clock is ticking for candidates to do what is best for California in this historic moment,” Hicks said.
Hicks penned an open letter in March, urging non-viable Democratic candidates to drop out. Only one Democrat heeded that call at that time.
Meanwhile, one of those candidates with low polling numbers at the time, Becerra, has seen a boost in polling over the past week — and not just in the party’s survey. An Emerson College poll released last week showed Becerra at 10%, tying him at fourth place alongside Porter. (Steyer was the top Democrat in that survey.)
When asked if he thought current low-polling candidates would ignore his calls to step aside, given Becerra’s experience, Hicks said, “They can hold out hope, but the numbers are what the numbers are.”
“I find it hard to believe that you’re going to find a way to get to the finish line,” he said of candidates who have consistently polled in low single-digits and are struggling to raise money.
The latest poll of 1,200 likely voters took place April 15-17. It was conducted in English and Spanish, both online and by telephone. It has a margin of error of 2.83%.
This is the third poll from the California Democratic Party in the weeks leading up to the June primary.
The unprecedented move by the party to release multiple surveys — an effort that has a price tag of “multiple six-figures” — came after Hicks’ urging of non-viable Democratic candidates to drop out went largely unheeded.