Steve Hilton got the coveted endorsement from President Donald Trump, which could help him beat Chad Bianco but would do him no favors if he were to face a Democrat in the fall.
Godofredo A. Vásquez/Associated Press
The implosion of former Rep. Eric Swalwell alerted many Californians that there is an election for governor this year. Tonight, those just tuning into the race can see the top six candidates spar in San Francisco at 7 p.m. on KRON4 in the Bay Area.
Most polls say at least one in five voters is undecided. But it’s time to start paying attention. Ballots arrive in the mail in the first week of May and the primary is June 2.
Here is a guide to the candidates and what to watch for at the debate. (Their polling numbers are from a California Democratic Party-commissioned survey released Monday):
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Steve Hilton (16%): The Republican, British-born former Fox News host and Atherton resident is leading in most polls, largely because eight (now six) Democrats have been splitting their party’s vote. That has enabled Hilton and a fellow Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, to claim the top two positions in most surveys, freaking Democrats out that none of their candidates will advance to the general election, likely giving California its first GOP governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. That possibility has since dissipated.
Hilton will wait 10-15 seconds tonight before mentioning that President Donald Trump endorsed him, which has enabled him to separate from Bianco a bit. (If Hilton does advance to the November election, Democrats will wait two seconds before tying the Trump endorsement around Hilton like an anvil, given that two-thirds of California voters despise Trump.)
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Oddly, Hilton described his politics in his book “More Human” as a combination of Bernie Sanders, centrist former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and libertarian Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. You’ll hear nothing of the sort tonight. Hilton’s jaunty British accent and TV-host polish smooth over a very conservative agenda: He wants to dismantle what he calls California’s “climate agenda,” the nation-leading environmental protection laws that he believes stifle business growth. He has taken cheap shots at Democrats Katie Porter and Xavier Becerra behind their backs. Let’s see if he makes the same cracks to their faces.
Chad Bianco (14%): Bianco may not have won Trump’s endorsement, but he gained more support than Hilton from delegates at this month’s California Republican Party convention (but short of the 60% needed for an endorsement), hinting that Bianco may be more in tune with the party’s base. Think of him as California’s less goofy version of infamous Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
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Gubernatorial candidate and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was the preferred choice at the California Republican Party convention.
Jae C. Hong/Associated Press
There’s no doubt that he would take California in a hard right direction. He promised at the party convention to eliminate the California Environmental Quality Act, the California Coastal Commission, the California Air Resources Board and sanctuary cities. Like Hilton, he will hammer a powerful point all night: Democrats have run California for the last two decades, so if you don’t like the way things are, give a Republican a chance. An equation that will go unmentioned by either: A Republican governor plus a Democratic supermajority in the Legislature would equal four years of gridlock in Sacramento.
Xavier Becerra (13%): The most compelling story of the debate. Given up for dead just a few weeks ago because of perpetually low poll numbers (even California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks was not-too-subtly hinting that low-polling candidates should, ahem, “honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign.”) Only one, former assembly member Ian Calderon, dropped out, belatedly joined by former state Controller Betty Yee this week. And, of course, Swalwell.
Becerra, possessor of a golden resume (former top House leader from Los Angeles, state attorney general, Secretary of Health and Human services, child of immigrants) and limited, Dad-vibe charisma, has surprisingly spiked in polls since Swalwell’s departure.
The climb is real, his campaign insists, as 20,000 donations have poured into the campaign over the past 10 days, 97% of them first-time donors. Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and a host of state legislators endorsed Becerra Tuesday.
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Xavier Becerra goes into tonight’s debate riding a wave of good news in polling after Eric Swalwell left the race.
Yalonda M. James/S.F. Chronicle
He drew a massive crowd to a rally in LA last week. Are voters looking for a stable, working-class-raised guy in the wake of the horrifying allegations against Swalwell and Tom Steyer’s $120 million-and-counting spending on the race? It’s Becerra’s moment. Will Democrats be raving about the X (avier)-factor on Thursday or searching for a new favorite again?
Tom Steyer (13%): The San Francisco billionaire philanthropist and former hedge fund manager has spent a fortune to go from 0 to 13% in the polls and remains the race’s biggest enigma. In a year when progressives have railed on billionaires (backing statewide and San Francisco taxes on them), several progressive unions and institutions — including the nurses’ and teachers’ unions, the Bernie Sanders-inspired Our Revolution, Assembly Member Alex Lee, chair of the Legislative Progressive Caucus, and Yee on Tuesday — have backed the only billionaire in the race. “Yes, Tom Steyer is a billionaire,” reads the Our Revolution nod, “But it matters what he is doing with that power: pushing for taxes on the wealthy, expanding universal programs and dismantling corporate influence in our politics. This is also about winning.”
Some of Steyer’s proposals, like “eliminating the Trump tax loophole,” sound compelling but are revealed as vaporous upon further inspection.
Questions about her behavior have slowed the campaign of Katie Porter, who will hope to get back on track tonight.
Yalonda M. James/S.F. Chronicle
Katie Porter (10%): The former Orange County House member’s campaign has stalled and she has seemed cowed since the unearthing last October of viral clips showing her tangling with a TV reporter and berating a staffer. It’s unbecoming behavior, but far less toxic than what our president/Steve Hilton endorser does three times a week. Will Porter, now the sole woman in the race and the only candidate talking about lowering child-care costs, regain her CEO-grilling fire tonight? This may be one of her last chances to appear before a large audience and move up in the polls.
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Matt Mahan (5%): the San Jose mayor is the favorite candidate of billionaires and over-amplified center-right Californians on social media. But voters have largely ignored him. Mahan will likely quickly point out tonight that San Jose has reduced “unsheltered homelessness faster than any other city in the state” by moving people into shelters. But as my colleague Sarah DiNatale reported, critics say Mahan has focused on the most visible parts of the crisis — encampments — at the expense of longer-term solutions. Fun game to play tonight: Watch how many times Mahan and the Republicans agree with each other.
Not invited to the debate were former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond. Both were polling under 2% in the California Democratic Party-commissioned survey.