Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 3 of this first round Western Conference matchup as the Anaheim Ducks host the Edmonton Oilers with the series now tied 1-1.
Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks Game 3
Series: Tied 1-1
Time: 10:10 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 7:10 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Victory+, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: CBC, SN, TVAS, SN+
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks return home after evening the series with a 6-4 win in Game 2. Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers head into Game 3 searching for answers after letting momentum slip despite strong five-on-five play.
Credit Image: © Ron Palmer/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire
However, the early stages of this series have revealed a much tighter matchup than expected. Anaheim has been able to dictate pace in stretches and generate offence from multiple sources. Conversely, Edmonton has yet to fully capitalize on its special teams advantage, which has limited its ability to separate.
Ultimately, Game 3 now becomes a pivot point. Both teams have demonstrated viable paths to victory, making this the first true swing game of the series.
Edmonton Oilers Storylines
Edmonton enters Game 3 with a notable gap between process and results. The Oilers have controlled stretches of play at five-on-five, but have struggled to convert that into consistent scoring output.
Most notably, Connor McDavid has yet to record a point in the series. While unusual, this is unlikely to continue given his usage and overall impact. As a result, Edmonton’s offensive ceiling remains intact despite the early results.
Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl has begun to assert his presence offensively, providing stability and secondary scoring support. The Oilers continue to generate controlled entries and offensive zone time, but execution has lagged in key moments.
Additionally, Edmonton’s power play has yet to find its rhythm. Considering its effectiveness during the regular season, this represents a significant regression candidate heading into Game 3.
Edmonton goal!Scored by Josh Samanski with 06:09 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Jack Roslovic and Matt Savoie.Edmonton: 4Anaheim: 4#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-23T04:37:02.879859Z
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
The Ducks enter Game 3 with a clear identity that has translated well into the postseason. They continue to push pace, generate chances, and rely on depth scoring rather than a single line to drive offence.
Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson remains a central figure in Anaheim’s attack. His shot generation continues to stand out, providing a consistent source of offensive pressure. Additionally, Troy Terry has maintained a strong presence in transition and offensive zone play, reinforcing his role as a primary playmaker.
Furthermore, Cutter Gauthier has emerged as a legitimate finishing option. His performance in Game 2 highlighted his ability to capitalize in high-leverage moments, adding another dimension to Anaheim’s offence.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Cutter Gauthier with 04:52 remaining in the 3rd period.Edmonton: 4Anaheim: 5#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-23T04:41:37.541236Z
However, Anaheim’s success has also been tied to special teams execution. Their ability to convert on the power play while limiting Edmonton’s opportunities has been a key factor through two games.
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
The in-house model continues to favour Edmonton based on stronger finishing metrics and an established special teams advantage. Meanwhile, MoneyPuck projects the Oilers at approximately 52.5 percent for Game 3.
HockeyStats aligns with a slightly stronger Edmonton edge, placing the Oilers closer to 57 percent while projecting a modest scoring advantage.
After removing market vig from the -130 range and blending all inputs, Edmonton lands between 53 and 55 percent. Fair odds project closer to -115 to -120, indicating a narrower edge than earlier in the series.
Ultimately, the model suggests Edmonton still holds a slight advantage, but the gap has tightened significantly.
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction
Game 3 presents a balanced matchup with both teams showing the ability to execute their preferred style. Edmonton’s underlying metrics and regression indicators suggest improvement is likely, particularly in special teams and top-end production.
However, Anaheim’s ability to generate offence, sustain pressure, and leverage depth scoring has proven effective through two games. With the series shifting to home ice, the Ducks are positioned to continue dictating pace.
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks win 4-3 (Model Probability: ~47%)
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction Record: 1-1
Prop Bets of the Night
Leo Carlsson over 2.5 shots (-130) remains a consistent angle in this series. Even after recording “only” four shots in Game 2, his role and volume continue to support this play. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid to record a point provides a strong regression opportunity. Given his usage and historical production, it is unlikely he remains off the scoresheet.
Additionally, Cutter Gauthier anytime goal presents a value play. His finishing ability and increased offensive involvement position him as a logical contributor in a high-event game environment.
Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Record: 4-2 (+0.96 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
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Main photo: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images