Good morning from Mexico City,
This is getting wild.
It’s kind of fun. It’s kind of dangerous.
You can read about the Padres’ latest big and late comeback in my game story (here) from yesterday’s 6-4 victory over the Diamondbacks.
The story touches on the pro-Padres crowd, which we will get into later, and the Padres’ doing nearly nothing on offense again, which we will get into sooner than later.
First, let’s put in perspective what the have Padres accomplished so far in putting together the best record in the major leagues while ranking 18th in runs scored and 24th in OPS.
The Diamondbacks scored four runs in last night’s second inning. Ty France homered in the fifth. The Padres scored four runs in the seventh on two singles, two walks, an error and two sacrifice flies. It was the most eclectic of their five comebacks from a deficit of four runs or more.
That is two more comebacks from deficits that size than any other MLB team and nearly 20% of the total number of times all MLB teams have come back to win a game in which they trailed by at least four runs this season. (It has happened 27 times in 2026.)
The Padres did it twice last season. They did it six times in 2024. They did it twice in ‘23. The team record for number of comebacks that large is eight set in 1984. The Padres also did it six times in 1986 and ‘98.
Comebacks of any size are difficult. Over the past five seasons, about 67% of MLB games have been won by the team that scored first.
The Padres’ seven total comebacks are four off the MLB lead. Nine teams have come back to win more times than the Padres this season.
A comeback victory is considered any time a team wins a game in which it trailed. It could be — and often is — that they overcame an early 1-0 deficit. The Padres’ comebacks are not that.
They have come back to win two games in which their largest deficit was one run. One of those was April 9 when they trailed the Rockies 1-0 in the third inning, 2-1 in the 10th and 3-2 in the 11th before winning in the 12th.
Every other comeback has been from at least four runs down.
It was just in Friday’s newsletter that I detailed those victories and listed some other superlatives. But it deserved to be looked at again.
Could be better
It also bears repeating that the Padres cannot keep going like this, batting .233 (22nd among MLB’s 30 teams) with a .683 OPS (24th).
Yes, their pitching staff is doing its job. The rotation, even missing Joe Musgrove all season and Nick Pivetta the past two weeks, has a 4.14 ERA (15th). The bullpen’s ERA is 3.03 (third), and the bullpen has protected the past 10 leads it has been handed.
The Padres know the bats have to heat up, as much as they justifiably talk about the important thing being finding a way to win.
“Every day is ‘How do we win that game?” Gavin Sheets said. “We could be a lot better. We could have a worse record right now, too. We’ve put together some really good wins. As poor as the offense has been, we’ve been really, really good in some high(-leverage) situations. At the end of the day, that’s what wins games.”
Sheets said all that before he went out and helped build the Padres’comeback with a single that drove in their first two runs in the seventh inning.
He has driven in 11 runs this season. Of those, 10 have come in victories.
All 12 of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s RBIs have come in victories. And he doubled and scored the winning run in the ninth inning in Boston.
Jackson Merrill is chasing pitches outside the zone at a 39% rate, 14th highest in MLB. But for the second straight game it was his walk that began a decisive inning for the Padres. Merrill is batting .204/.278/.357 overall but is 3-for-7 with a double, a home run and two walks in late-and-close situations this season.
Manny Machado has had either a single or a walk in the decisive inning of the past three comebacks from four runs down. It was his three-run homer in Boston on April 5 that completed a comeback from a 4-0 deficit. (Merrill later homered to break a 6-6 tie in what ended up an 8-6 victory.)
“I think we’re all built for the moment,” Merrill said.
Fact is, the Padres are not this good. Almost no team is. They are on pace to win 112 games. Three teams in the past 65 years have won more than 109 games – the 2001 Mariners (116), the 1998 Yankees (114) and the 2022 Dodgers (111).
The Padres are almost certainly not this bad at hitting either.
They, in fact, speak in definite terms when talking about their offense.
“It’s a good problem for us,” Ramón Laureano said yesterday afternoon. “When we come together as an offense, it’s gonna be awesome.”
They base the belief their offense will be much better on the history of the players that are struggling (Merrill, Machado, Tatis) and the underlying metrics, such as the fact the Padres ranks 21st in batting average in balls in play (.282), third in hard-hit percentage (45.7%) and ninth in expected batting average (.250).
Last night was a fairly typical game for them, in that they were 3-for-7 on balls put in play at 100 mph or harder. They are batting .545 on such balls, about 30 points lower than the MLB average.
Including two outs made last night on balls hit 107.4 mph and 110.4 mph, Tatis is 10-for-19 (.526) on balls with an exit velocity of 105 mph or higher. The rest of the league is batting .685 on balls hit that hard.
So the Padres choose to view their meager production as a temporary thing that could portend great things.
“It’s a chance to be a special team because we’re doing like this and the guys aren’t hitting the way they want and the way they will end up hitting,” said Xander Bogaerts, the only member of the Core Four who is hitting consistently. “So what’s gonna happen when they start when we start hitting the way we know we can? It can only go up from here.”
Said Merrill: “Get everybody raking, it’s going to be tough to beat us. It’s tough to beat us right now.”
Padres de Mexico
Craig Stammen called it “Petco South.” Mason Miller wondered if the stands around the bullpen were going to collapse. The “Let’s Go Padres” chant in the ninth inning was thunderous for a crowd of 20,062.
About 90% of those that packed Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú yesterday were Padres fans.
“It was a great atmosphere and well received,” Tatis said. “We’re really grateful. They’re letting themselves be noticed. The way they’re showing us love is incredible.”
Chula Vista native Rey Mysterio, a Mexican American professional wrestler and frequent attender of Padres games, announced his hometown team’s starting lineup before the game and inserted “Holy” between Gavin Sheets’ first and last names.
It was far from the only time “Holy Sheets” was heard.
“That was crazy,” Sheets said of the chants. “That was pretty special. Obviously, in San Diego it’s special. But leaving the country and coming here and having these fans here. … And having Rey Mysterio say that was not on my bingo card.”
Rey Fennix, another luchadore, announced the Diamondbacks. Those introductions were not the last time the official “home” team in this series was booed.
“We felt a little bit like the underdog here today,” Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said. “There were a lot of Padres fans here today.”
This was similar to the turnout here in 2023 when the Padres faced the Giants. But the percentage of Padres fans was higher yesterday. Many of the fans were clearly from San Diego or other parts of the United States. But there were a large number of Mexican fans in Padres gear.
And their favorite player was Tatis.
“Fernando here in Mexico is a rock star,” said Santiago Harp, who runs the Mexico City Diablos Rojos owned by his father, Alfredo Harp Helú. “He’s the biggest star of any team. I don’t think Ohtani would have the same impact as Tatis here in Mexico City.”
Hanging in for the win
Germán Márquez has started almost as many games at high elevation as anyone in MLB history.
So when he gave up four runs in the second inning yesterday, he knew there was a lot of game left.
“Ive been in that place a lot of times,” said Márquez , whose 96 starts at Coors Field while pitching for the Rockies from 2016 through ‘25 are fourth most ever. “In the moment, it’s going to be bad. But my mindset was getting as far as I can.”
Márquez finished six innings without allowing another run, and the Padres made him a winner when they took the lead in the next half-inning.
“Four runs is nothing for this team,” Márquez said. “And I’m freaking happy about it.”
Tidbits
My notebook (here) from yesterday included quotes from Alfredo Harp Helú about the importance of his family’s involvement with the Padres. Also in the notebook: presumptive new owners of the Padres, José E. Feliciano and his wife, Kwanza Jones, are expected to join Harp Helú in his suite at today’s game; Miller broke the Padres’ record for consecutive scoreless innings; and Sung-Mun Song was called up to be the extra player the Padres are allowed for this international series
No one is saying Song’s time with the team is going to last longer than the two days here. But the reality could be that Nick Castellanos’ days with the Padres are numbered. He has one hit in his past 25 at-bats and has started two of the Padres’ past eight games (once as the designated hitter, once at first base). France, who homered twice yesterday, is 8-for-23 (.348) with a double and three home runs while starting seven of the past 11 games at first base.
By the way, check out Annie Heilbrunn’s Q&A with Castellanos (here). Really, really good stuff from him on a long career and the ending of his time in Philadelphia.
Machado’s throwing error in the eighth inning ended the Padres’ errorless streak at 14 games. It was their longest such streak in a single season since they went 16 games without an error at the start of 2022.
The Padres have at least one extra-base hit in 23 consecutive games. Their longest extra-base hit streak last year was 24 games.
Ryan Finley wrote a “Scene & Heard” column (here) in which he talked about beautiful Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú and caught up with some Padres fans.
If you find yourself at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú, you have to check out the baseball museum celebrating the history of the Diablos Rojos. The collection of art is mesmerizing. The photographs from the Padres’ visits to Mexico are neat to see. This room of baseball players, each molded from a single giant block of clay, was fantastic.
All right, that’s it for me.
Early game (1:05 p.m. PT) today.
Talk to you tomorrow.