Throughout California, voters are casting mail-in ballots at a furious pace for next Tuesday’s statewide special election to decide whether to adopt Proposition 50, the Democrat-backed plan to counter Republican gerrymandering in other states.
But local organizers in Santa Clara County say it has yet to be seen whether the statewide partisan fracas over Proposition 50 will be enough to get key minority voting blocs to the polls on Nov. 4 in large numbers to help the county pass Measure A.
Gabby Chavez-Lopez, executive director of the Latina Coalition of Silicon Valley, has been organizing local get out the vote efforts. She said the high-profile Prop. 50 fight is attracting voter attention to the Measure A debate. But she’s still worried about turnout.
“Anything dealing with Trump is obviously getting attention right now,” Chavez-Lopez told San José Spotlight. “It’s motivating. It’s concrete. I think it’s very direct.”
The political stakes are especially high in Santa Clara County during this off-cycle special election. Local voters are being asked to weigh in on Measure A, a countywide five-eighths-cent sales tax increase for the next five years to offset federal cuts to health care services. Backers say it’s intended to shore up funding for the county health care system that could see $4.4 billion in lost revenue in the coming years.
Democrats have pitched Proposition 50 as a way to win back control of Congress from the Republican majority and place a check on President Donald Trump’s authority. The measure does away with the congressional district map created by California’s voter-approved independent districting commission. It would be temporarily replaced by a new map with redrawn boundaries designed to secure Democrats as many as five additional seats in Congress.
The Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters has received 201,679 ballots as of Monday, or about 18.5% out of the 1,088,994 eligible voters.
County election officials said they’re projecting a total voter turnout between 50% to 60% this election, a somewhat greater share than has been historically typical of an off presidential election cycle.
Statewide voters have already cast more than 4.5 million ballots, representing roughly 20% of registered voters, according to California election officials. This figure suggests higher than usual voter turnout for the state as well.
Chavez-Lopez remains doubtful Santa Clara County’s minority voters will fully take part in this statewide turnout surge.
“The verdict is still out if that is enough to change longstanding behaviors, and low voter turnout and low engagement at the ballot box,” she said.
In Santa Clara County, Asian residents account for 42% of the population, while Latinos account for just under 25%, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census.
If the turnout isn’t high in Santa Clara County, Measure A could face an uphill battle, Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University, said.
“Typically, in off-year elections where there’s nothing on the ballot but a single issue in a local area, it loses,” Gerston told San José Spotlight, adding it needs at least 40% voter participation. “(Then) I think there’s a good chance it’ll pass.”
Gerston said based on prior voting patterns, Asian and Latino voters tend to skew in favor of progressive policy proposals, like Measure A.
“So the question is, have they been mobilized?” he said.
LEAD Filipino CEO Angelica Cortez said she sees signs of the Democrats’ Proposition 50 pitch catching on among local voters. Her nonprofit organization, which focuses on civic engagement, health equity and grassroots action of Filipino and broader Asian American and Pacific Islander communities, is pushing to get out the vote among South Bay Filipino residents.
“Most folks have heard of Prop. 50, but not of Measure A,” Cortez told San José Spotlight.
Cortez said for many people within the South Bay’s immigrant communities, the Trump administration’s campaign of mass deportations has galvanized support around Proposition 50.
“We are vilified. We are targeted,” Cortez said of Filipinos. “We’re not the face that this administration paints verbally as they attempt to route the public’s eye toward Latino-Latina communities and AAPIs, but we do deal with undocumented and immigration conversations daily, too.”
In contrast, other community organizers are seeing a different pattern emerge from their conversations with local voters. For some groups, they say Measure A is actually proving to be the most salient campaign issue.
“Just because it has a much more real-life impact on their immediate life,” Philip Nguyen, executive director of the Vietnamese American Roundtable, told San José Spotlight.
He said he’s heard many local Vietnamese voters voice skepticism about the proposed sales tax increase, questioning its necessity and warning of its potential negative impacts on local commerce.
Meanwhile, even as Proposition 50 drives some voters to the polls, Chavez-Lopez said she sees the tense political climate also discouraging other minority voters from participating in this election cycle.
“I think people are fearful, resentful, disenchanted with our political environment right now,” Chavez-Lopez said. “I felt that knocking on doors. People disengage, and they get turned off from participating.”
Contact Keith Menconi at [email protected] or @KeithMenconi on X.