I tend to do my research and form my opinions based on a mix of sources from ESPN and NFL.com. During the college football season, I watch games, look at Mel Kiper Jr.’s big board and positional rankings, and compare them to those of Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, Field Yates, and others. The disparities can be noteworthy, and though shifts during the year are predictable, which players will shift and in which direction is not.
When the draft arrives, NFL.com’s draft tracker can be very helpful when trying to understand whom the Niners just took, especially in late rounds.
The draft tracker grades break down from 8.0 (perfect prospect) to 5.50-5.59 (priority undrafted free agent).
This year, the best player in the draft, according to their grades, was rookie New York Giants edge/linebacker Arvell Reese, who graded as a Pro Bowl talent.
If that is the highest, that tells me this was a weak class—or at least weak at the top. In fact, the grades dropped to “Will be a good starter within two years” after seven. That means they felt only seven players are plug-and-play, day-one starters, though I am sure their judgment would change depending on the team drafting.
Note: Matt Miller had only 12 players with true first-round grades, his lowest total in years.
However, there were 31 prospects graded with “will eventually be a plus starter” and an additional 37 with “will eventually be an average starter.” That’s more than two full rounds of talent—stretching nearly halfway into Round 3. So from that point of view, the value of players was deep.
Here are the grades the Niners players received.
WR De’Zhuan Stribling: 6.28 (average starter)
Edge Romello Height: 6.19 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
RB Kaelon Black: 5.69 (candidate for bottom of roster or practice squad)
DT Gracen Halton: 6.10 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
OT/OG Carver Willis: 5.89 (average backup or special teamer)
CB Ephesians Prysock: 6.17 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
LB Jaden Dugger: 5.68 (candidate for bottom of roster or practice squad)
OT Enrique Cruz: 6.11 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
When I look at these projections, it looks like the Niners got some good value with Halton, Prysock, and Cruz on Day 3. They improved their depth and may have improved the starting rotation in a few places. Many evaluators felt San Francisco reached with the first three picks, though they like Stribling and Height as players in general.
What I have said in the past—and the pundits don’t have the time to do the deep dive we would all like—is that every team wants or needs players with certain traits/skills, and the rankings at positions would differ when taking that and the scheme into account.
Scheme fit and traits
With offensive linemen, how would the rankings change if a zone blocking scheme were required? Or, even more difficult, where would a tackle who will move to guard be ranked among the guards? That would make a big difference when grading San Francisco’s newest (apparently) guard, Carver Willis.
Another good example of that is with the 49ers’ first pick, De’Zhaun Stribling. Two important factors to take into account are that the Niners just lost Jauan Jennings and that Kyle Shanahan values a receiver’s blocking ability more highly than most coaches or pundits do. This year, he also prioritized speed more than in other years.
Stribling is over 6’2″, runs a 4.36 40-yard dash, and all evaluators noted that he blocks his ass off. (They said it differently, but that’s what they meant.) The Niners not only lost the best blocking receiver in football in Jennings, but one of the top-five blocking receivers when he played, in Brandon Aiyuk. Getting a fast, physical receiver was paramount.
Zachariah Branch from the University of Georgia was ranked a few spots ahead of Stribling. But Branch is under 5’9″. He is also not any faster. There is no way he can match Stribling’s blocking.
Denzel Boston was mocked to the Niners in many publications, and I would have preferred him, but his speed does not match Stribling’s.
So, how much of a reach was their first pick?
Round positioning
Another factor to consider when judging whether a player is a reach is the team’s next slotted pick. Would he likely be available when the team was next on the clock?
When I look at the 49ers’ draft, I think it is very possible Stribling would have been gone before their next pick. Ditto for Height.
I also would have been willing to bet money (admittedly not much, as I am not a gambling man) that Kaelon Black would have been available not only when San Francisco picked next but when it picked after that.
I would have bet a smaller amount, but still bet, he would have been available when the team picked in the fifth round.
Past grades
We know that NFL.com will be wrong on many of these grades. Some players taken in the later rounds will be stars. Others taken early will be busts.
Here are some grades of 49ers players in the past when they entered the draft. I am putting in bold the player about whom they were wildly wrong.
George Kittle: 5.90 (average backup/special teamer)
Talanoa Hufanga: 5.99 (average backup/special teamer)
Dre Greenlaw: 5.88 (average backup/special teamer)
Brock Purdy: 5.57 (Priority undrafted free agent)
Trey Sermon: 6.18 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
Tyrion Davis-Price: 6.16 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
Brandon Aiyuk: 6.38 (will eventually be a plus starter)
Deommodore Lenoir: 5.69 (candidate for bottom of roster or practice squad)
Fred Warner: 6.10 (good backup with potential to develop into a starter)
Mike McGlinchey: 6.40 (will become a good starter within two years)
Solomon Thomas: 7.0 (Pro Bowl talent)
Elijah Mitchell: 5.64 (candidate for bottom of roster or practice squad)
Javon Kinlaw: 6.50 (boom or bust potential)
Trey Lance: 6.47 (will become a good starter within two years)
Mac Jones: 6.33 (will eventually be a plus starter)
When you look at this list, it is easy to think that NFL.com analysts are incompetent. How do they miss this badly, for both the players who overperformed and those who underperformed their draft grades? On the other hand, we see that John Lynch sometimes saw things others didn’t, but also missed badly on others.
That variance is exactly why we can always have hope after the draft. It’s also why I liked our draft a little better than many (and a lot more than some). The Niners might not have selected anyone whose jersey I am excited to buy, but I do think we’ll be happily cheering for a number of them this coming year.