As a rule of thumb, Ruben Niebla maps out the rotation as far as three weeks out. The Padres’ pitching coach’s plans often veer well off course.
“It never works out,” Niebla said with a laugh. “Because baseball has a way of figuring itself out. There’s days when you make a tough decision of inserting somebody and eventually that works out and then it takes shape again and you’re like, ‘OK that guy responded here and that guy responded here and we’re good sending this guy here,’ and we kind of keep moving.
“You keep smoothing things over.”
That process truly began before Joe Musgrove’s spring setback as the Padres brought in Walker Buehler on a minor-league contract and signed Germán Márquez and Griffin Canning to big-league deals before the start of Cactus League games. The flexor strain that Nick Pivetta sustained in mid-April triggered another pivot; the Padres last week added Lucas Giolito to an equation with no obvious opening just yet.
Márquez and Buehler are holding their own as back-end starters, knuckleballer Matt Waldron showed signs of turning a corner in Wednesday’s five-inning start and Canning might make just one more rehab start before he’s added to a rotation that has hardly been the Achilles heel so many expected.
Only six teams have fewer than the Padres’ seven quality starts so far this season. But a starting rotation with so many questions and variables begins the weekend as a middle-of-the-pack unit in ERA (4.30, 18th), WHIP (1.30, 17th), opponent batting average (.244, 18th) and WAR (2.2, 17th).
Perhaps most telling, for all the hiccups and moving pieces, the 11 wins tallied by Padres starting pitchers so far are tied for fifth-most in the majors.
“I would agree that we’ve been better than predicted with Nick’s injury,” right-hander Michael King said. “Especially coming into camp. You think Joe’s going to be here, too. I do think there’s a big opportunity to go deeper into games and we haven’t been as efficient as I would like as a staff. But I’m happy with the strides that we’re making and the progress. I feel like everything starter has gotten better for the most part.”
Added Niebla: “I am pleased — never satisfied.”
Randy Vásquez #98, Matt Waldron #61, Germán Márquez #33 and Nick Pivetta #27 of the San Diego Padres walk towards the dugout before the game against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Randy Vásquez has been a key to the Padres’ success so far this season. The Padres have won all six of his starts, four of which has seen the 27-year-old allow one run or less.
King leads the group with a 2.41 ERA, has quality starts in three of his last four outings and in the Mexico City finale on Sunday set season-bests in strikeouts (8) and walks (1). Meantime, Márquez quietly has a 3.32 ERA over his last four starts (all Padres wins) after the team got its head around his early pitch-tipping, Buehler continues to show flashes and Waldron’s turn on Wednesday in a game in which the defense did him few favors was a reminder that the organization is not in a hurry to give up on him and his knuckleball.
Waldron, who is out of options, is the closest to the hot seat as Canning and Giolito inch closer to the rotation.
To solve for X and Y and Z and whatever other variables pop up, a six-man rotation could be on the table. The Padres play 10 games in a row and 19 games in 20 days to start the month of May. The Padres are also open to openers for everyone but King and could even draw up piggy-back games as they consider a holistic approach to managing an entire 13-man pitching staff.
“I think we’re thinking about all these things, and we’re ready for it,” Niebla said. “I think there’s plenty of conversation of just open-mindedness about it, and whenever it makes sense, it might show up. It might not show up in two weeks, and it might show up twice in one week.”
Griffin Canning throws during a spring training practice on February 19, 2026 in Peoria, AZ. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Canning threw 62 pitches over five innings (1 R, 0 ER) on Tuesday at Albuquerque, and could rejoin the big-league rotation as soon as next week if Sunday’s sixth rehab start goes well. Giolito made his second start with low Single-A Lake Elsinore on Thursday and has to be added to the active roster by May 16.
The Padres also expect Musgrove and Pivetta to become factors again this season. Both, however, will require ample time to build back up, a variable that will eventually wedge its way back into Niebla’s three-week planning window.
The Padres certainly don’t see themselves in the same light as the Dodgers with the way they have the depth to slow-play a balky Blake Snell for a second year in a row, but the rotation holding up as it has and the options on the table are reason enough to give Pivetta and Musgrove all the time they need to feel right.
“We feel we’re a playoff team; we feel that we’re going to get there as well,” Niebla said.
He added: “There’s a possibility that we might have to reinvent the wheel a little bit with how we use our pitching strategically once we get there.”