Good morning from Milwaukee,
Lucas Giolito is expected to make his first start for the Padres on Sunday.
Pretty much from the first time he takes the mound, the Padres need Giolito to be the innings eater he has been for most of his career.
They have gotten one six-inning outing each of the past three turns through the rotation.
Yesterday was one one of the worst starts any Padres pitcher has had in more than two seasons.
You can read about Griffin Canning’s super long short day in my game story (here) from yesterday’s 7-1 loss to the Brewers.
It is difficult to focus too much on the offense when the Padres were down six runs after one inning and seven runs after two.
For that reason — and because this topic needs a rest sometimes — we won’t delve too deep into the ongoing offensive woes.
But another series passing with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. doing next to nothing at the plate can’t be ignored.
Because this skid the Padres are in is going to turn into a full-on careen off a cliff if the terrifically talented twosome doesn’t stop being terrible.
Skid? Yes, the Padres are 6-9 in their past 15 games.
You can say they did not lose any ground in the standings in that time. You can also say they did not gain any. Whichever kind of fan you want to be. That’s up to you. No judgment here.
The Padres were a half-game behind the Dodgers on the morning of April 28. They are a half-game back now.
In those 15 games, the Padres are averaging 3.8 runs and batting .185/.252/.315 as a team.
We can quibble over the importance of Jackson Merrill’s inconsistency and maybe a couple other topics. But at some point we have to just stop and acknowledge that the biggest problem with the offense is the two franchise cornerstones not holding up their corners.
Machado singled yesterday before popping out twice. He was 2-for-11 in the series against the Brewers and is batting .115/.175/.231 in 14 games since April 28. Tatis had one of those games yesterday, where he struck out three times and grounded out twice. He was 3-for-12 with a walk in the series and is batting .216/.281/.275 in 14 games since April 28.
Here are the season numbers for the two players who the Padres are paying to lead them offensively:
Note that the rest of the Padres have a collective .379 slugging percentage. That is 26 points higher than the slugging percentage of the Nationals (who rank fifth in the majors) if you take away CJ Abrams and James Wood.
As if anyone has ever said to themselves, “If only the Padres had CJ Abrams and James Wood …”
Take a moment.
OK.
Now, let’s say Tatis and Machado were even just duplicating their most mediocre starts to any of the previous seasons since they became teammates in 2019.
Think 2021 Machado and 2023 Tatis.
Conservatively, that would add eight home runs, a couple doubles, a triple and four more singles to the Padres totals.
Again, that is just those two players being average versions of themselves.
But just that little bit more from the statue-contract guys would bring up the Padres’ team batting average to .231, which would be sixth-lowest instead of last among the major leagues’ 30 teams. Importantly, it would raise the Padres’ slugging percentage to .394, all the way up to 10th from their current 26th.
There is no way to tell when those additional hits would have come. But it might be safe to figure that Machado would be batting far better than his current .167 with runners in scoring position and Tatis would have significantly more than his current total of 15 RBIs.
Just based on Tatis actually having hit a few more home runs than zero, the Padres would certainly not have a minus-3 run differential.
They may or may not have a few more wins. (Probably, they would.)
But one thing is virtually certain:
We would feel a lot better about the rest of this season.
Because nothing else we talk about will matter if Machado and Tatis don’t start producing in a meaningful way.
Stricken
The Padres are not only hitting at a nearly historically low level, they are striking out at an inordinate clip.
The Padres struck out 10 times yesterday, running their total for the series to 36. It was their most strikeouts in a three-game series since August 2023, and it was the third time this season they have struck out more than 30 times in a three-game series.
They had not struck out more than 30 times in any three-game series in either of the previous two seasons.
The 2023 season was also the last time the Padres had more strikeouts (380) through 43 games than their current total (369). Their total this season is just 14th highest in the majors, but it is the sixth highest in team history through the first 43 games of a season.
Their .222 batting average is sixth lowest by any Padres team through the first 43 games of a season.
Better coming
The Padres are 7-9 against teams with winning records and 18-9 against teams with losing records.
Last week’s series against the Cardinals (25-18) and the just-completed series against the Brewers (24-17) began what seems to be a tougher stretch of games.
Based on overall records, the Padres will play just two winning teams in their next four series. However, the two teams with losing records have surged of late.
All right for Sheets
Sheets was good enough, and the Padres were bad enough last season.
That is why Sheets got so many at-bats against left-handed pitchers in 2025. He improved against lefties, and the Padres did not have other viable options.
This season, they are stocked with capable right-handed batters in Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos and Ty France who all cross over into positionbs Sheets can play.
So it was that until yesterday Sheets had not started against a left-handed pitcher since opening day.
And that was fine with Sheets.
“You bring in guys like Miggy and Ty and Castellanos that have long success against lefties, and it makes our team better,” Sheets said. “I would love to be an everyday guy again. But at the same time, I want to win a World Series and whatever gives us the best chance out there is what I want.”
Sheets hit .255 with a .669 OPS in a career-high 153 plate appearances against left-handers in ‘25. Those were improvements of 87 and 241 points over his career numbers to that point.
It made Sheets serviceable. It did not guarantee him continued starts against lefties.
He started opening day against Tarik Skubal as a reward for his breakout ‘25 season but entered yesterday with just nine plate appearances (one hit) against lefties.
He expected nothing different.
“Not with the moves, not with the guys we brought in,” he said. “It’s more of who we have on this team and how this team is constructed and less of me. I mean, last year I took a big step. But that was all communicated really well. So from my end, that’s all you can ask.”
Sheets was the only left-handed hitter in yesterday’s lineup against Kyle Harrison in part because Sheets was 2-for-3 with four RBIs against Harrison when he pitched for the Giants last season.
Sheets also entered the game having gone 6-for-22 with three walks and a pair of homers in his previous seven games. That included the ninth-inning home run that won Wednesday’s game.
“I just felt like the at-bats Gavin has been taking — and especially the one late last night — he deserves a chance against the lefty,” manager Craig Stammen said. “And he had a couple good at-bats again today.”
Sheets was 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday, with all of his plate appearances coming against Harrison and two left-handed relievers.
Tidbits
I wrote yesterday after the game (here) about Matt Waldron’s future in light of Giolito’s imminent arrival. While Stammen said after the game Waldron is headed to the bullpen, that is almost certainly not going to happen. Waldron pitched two innings yesterday in relief, and the Padres will want coverage in the bullpen the next two games before Giolito is activated. The only real path for the Padres here is for Waldron to be designated for assignment.
Machado’s 103.4 mph single in the first inning yesterday was the first time he put a ball in play with an exit velocity of 100 mph or more since Sunday. The streak of nine balls in play without an exit velocity that high was his longest stretch since June of last year.
Yuki Matsui worked another two scoreless innings and has not allowed a run in 6⅔ innings in his three appearances since coming off the injured list.
Andujar hit his ninth double of the season, which tied him with Sheets for the team lead.
Bryce Johnson started in center field for Merrill, who got a scheduled day off. It was Johnson’s seventh start of the season and first since May 1.
Yesterday was the first time in nine games Merrill did not lead off. Xander Bogaerts did so for the first time this season. He was 0-for 3.
Castellanos was 2-for-4 yesterday and has nine hits (two doubles, two homers) in his past 32 at-bats. He has raised his season batting average 49 points (to .200) in that span.
The Padres scored their lone run in the ninth inning yesterday. So to update yesterday’s extensive look at the run differential: The Padres have been outscored 176-139 (-37) in the first eight innings of games and outscored their opponents 39-5 (+34) in the ninth inning and beyond.
Freddy Fermin threw out his sixth would-be base stealer yesterday. That number and his 37.5% caught stealing rate are tied for seventh best in MLB. He owes Bogaerts for getting the out on Sal Frelick yesterday, as there appeared to be no question to anyone but second base umpire Ryan Additon that Bogaerts quite slyly pushed Frelick’s foot off the base.
“He pushed me off,” said Sal Frelick, but to no avail. The call from Ryan Additon is out. pic.twitter.com/sVRyqgPdWg
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) May 14, 2026
All right, that’s it for me. Early flight to Seattle and then the start of a series against the Mariners.
Talk to you tomorrow.