Early voting: More than 1.2M ballots returned for California primary election, data firm says
SOMEONE’S MEMORY ABOUT SEEING THAT SUSPECT AND TO GIVE THEM A CALL. NOW TO OUR COMMITMENT 2026 COVERAGE. WE ARE 20 DAYS OUT UNTIL THE BALLOTS ARE DUE FOR CALIFORNIA’S PRIMARY ELECTION. VOTERS ARE CHOOSING LEADERS IN A NUMBER OF OFFICES, INCLUDING THE NEXT GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA. VOTERS STARTED GETTING IN THEIR MAIL THEIR MAIL-IN BALLOTS LAST WEEK. NEW NUMBERS. THESE ARE JUST IN SHOW MORE THAN 464,000 BALLOTS HAVE NOW BEEN RETURNED, BUT THERE ARE MORE THAN 22 MILLION BALLOTS OUT THERE. SO VERY LOW RETURN RATES SO FAR, JUST 2%. IT IS EARLY DAYS, THOUGH. OUR ELECTION EXPERT, PAUL MITCHELL, IS JOINING US NOW. YOU’RE COMPILING THIS DATA. SO THANK YOU VERY MUCH. IT’S ALL VERY INTERESTING. LET’S START OUT WITH WHAT YOU’RE SEEING FROM DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS. AND, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, EARLY DAYS, BUT WHO’S GETTING THEIR BALLOTS IN? WELL, FIRST OFF, THE EARLY DAYS POINT IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE SOME OF WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS JUST WHICH COUNTIES ARE QUICKER RETURNING THE DATA TO US, LIKE THE PROCESS OF ACTUALLY GETTING THESE BALLOTS, SCANNING THEM, MAKING SURE THAT THEY’RE VALID AND ALL THAT KIND OF STUFF. IT’S TAKING A LITTLE BIT OF TIME. SO SOME OF WHAT WE’RE SEEING IS THIS COUNTY IS REALLY TURNING IN QUICK. OTHERS ARE SLOWER, BUT WE’RE SEEING HIGHER REPUBLICAN TURNOUT IN THIS EARLY NUMBERS. WE’RE SEEING A LOT MORE TURNOUT FROM OLDER, MORE CONSERVATIVE VOTERS, MORE HOMEOWNERS. IT’S KIND OF TYPICAL OF A LOW TURNOUT ELECTION THAT THESE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT ALWAYS VOTE IN EVERY ELECTION. THEY PROBABLY ALMOST ALWAYS VOTE EARLY, AND THEY’RE GETTING THEIR BALLOTS IN RIGHT AWAY. AND YOU DO BREAK THIS DOWN BY ETHNICITY AND OTHER FACTORS. SO LET’S TAKE A LOOK. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING IN TERMS OF OF ETHNICITY AND BEING RETURNED HERE. SO LIKE WE’VE SEEN IN OTHER ELECTIONS, THE, THE IT’S LARGELY WHITE TURNOUT, LARGELY OLDER. LIKE I SAID, AND IT, YOU KNOW, THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE EARLY VOTE. IT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN THAT’S WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN BY THE END. WE SEE THESE PATTERNS WHERE SOME VOTERS STILL WANT TO VOTE AT THE POLLS WHEN THE STATEWIDE VOTE BY MAIL WAS FIRST IMPLEMENTED, ALEX PADILLA DID FOCUS GROUPS WITH VOTERS, AND THERE WERE A LOT OF OLDER LATINOS WHO WERE LIKE, I WILL ONLY GO TO THE POLLS. RIGHT? AND WE STILL SEE THAT HOLDING ON TODAY. AND DO YOU SEE THE SAME KIND OF THING WITH WITH THE AGE DIFFERENTIATION? YEAH. SO, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE EARLIEST ADOPTERS TO VOTE BY MAIL WERE OLDER VOTERS. IN FACT, A LOT OF THE EARLIEST ADOPTERS WERE THOSE OLDER REPUBLICANS. WE DID SEE SOME STUFF IN 2020 WHEN REPUBLICANS AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAID, DON’T VOTE BY MAIL, WHERE THAT STARTED TO DROP OFF, BUT IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE RETURNING. SO THERE ARE THESE PATTERNS. WE’RE HABITUAL, AND WE OFTENTIMES CREATE THESE HABITS AROUND VOTING. AND WE DO THAT ELECTION AFTER ELECTION AFTER ELECTION. AND SO WE CAN SEE IN THE DATA AS THESE PEOPLE RETURN THEIR BALLOTS, ONE OF THE, I THINK, HABITS IS PEOPLE SKIPPING THE MIDTERM PRIMARY ALTOGETHER. I THINK THE FOUR YEARS AGO, IT WAS AROUND A THIRD OF VOTERS ACTUALLY RETURNED THEIR BALLOTS. DO YOU THINK PEOPLE MIGHT BE MOTIVATED THIS YEAR? WE’VE GOT A LOT OF INTERESTING RACES. A HIGH PROFILE GOVERNOR’S RACE, ALL THE STATEWIDE OFFICES, CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, STATE OFFICES, THE ASSEMBLY AND THE STATE SENATE, A LOT OF LOCAL RACES. WHAT DO YOU THINK? ARE PEOPLE GOING TO BE MOTIVATED? SO THERE’S SOME DATA TO SUGGEST IN LIKE 2018 WHEN, YOU KNOW, TWO YEARS INTO THE FIRST TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, A LOT OF VOTERS WERE WERE AGITATED, THEY WERE UPSET, THEY WERE ENGAGED IN POLITICS. IT WAS VERY NATIONALIZED. BUT THEY DID VOTE IN HIGHER NUMBERS. EVEN THOUGH TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT. THEY WERE KIND OF THINKING ABOUT POLITICS MORE. THIS ELECTION. YOU DON’T HAVE MAYBE THE BIG STAR POWER. YOU KNOW, THERE’S NOT AN OWNER, SCHWARZENEGGER, JERRY BROWN OR GAVIN NEWSOM AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET. THERE’S NO KAMALA HARRIS RUNNING. YOU KNOW, THAT HAS KIND OF A NATIONAL PROFILE. YEAH. SO NOT THE MOST EXCITING MAYBE LIST OF CANDIDATES, BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME HIGHER TURNOUT POTENTIALLY. BUT AGAIN, THE THE GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY ELECTIONS ARE LOWEST TURNOUT ELECTIONS. A LOT OF VOTERS JUST DON’T THINK IT’S FOR THEM. HOW ABOUT THE, I GUESS, IDEA THAT WE COULD END UP WITH TWO REPUBLICANS BOUNCING OUT OF THIS PRIMARY AND DEMOCRATS WOULD BE SHUT OUT. DO YOU THINK THAT MIGHT MOTIVATE EITHER PARTY TO TO GET THEIR BALLOTS IN? YEAH, IT’S INTERESTING. I’VE SEEN SOME POLLING THAT SHOWS 80% OF DEMOCRATS ARE CONCERNED THAT MAYBE TWO REPUBLICANS WILL MAKE THE RUNOFF, AND ABOUT 60% OF REPUBLICANS ARE CONCERNED THAT TWO DEMOCRATS WILL MAKE THE RUNOFF. THERE’S BEEN THIS INTERESTING AWARENESS OF OUR TOP TWO SYSTEM THAT TWO CANDIDATES, THE TOP TWO CANDIDATES ON ELECTION DAY, ARE THE ONES THAT ADVANCE REGARDLESS OF PARTY. AND SO IT DOES SEEM AS THOUGH PARTIZANS ON BOTH SIDES ARE VERY AWARE OF THIS. AND IT MIGHT BE THAT SOME DEMOCRATS ARE HOLDING ON TO THEIR BALLOTS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO MAKE SURE THEIR VOTE COUNTS, AND THEY CAN MAKE SURE THAT THEY VOTE FOR SOMEBODY WHO CAN MAKE IT INTO THE RUNOFF. YEAH. WHO EVERYBODY IS KIND OF COALESCING BEHIND THE FRONT RUNNER. SO I JUST THE LAST QUICK QUESTION, WHAT DO YOU USUALLY SEE? WHEN DO MOST PEOPLE GET THEIR BALLOTS IN? SO USUALLY WE SEE THIS RUSH AT THE END. THE BIG CONCERN IS THAT IF YOU HAVE VIEWERS WHO ARE OUTSIDE OF 50 MILES FROM THE URBAN CORE OF SACRAMENTO, THE THE U.S. POST OFFICE IS SAYING THAT THAT POSTMARK ISN’T NECESSARILY GOING TO BE ON THERE ON TIME FOR YOU ABOUT TO COUNT. SO IN THE PAST, YOU COULD FEEL SAFE ANYWHERE IN CALIFORNIA IF YOU VOTED ON ELECTION DAY, YOU GET THE POSTMARK AND BE COUNTED. RIGHT NOW, THE THE U.S. POST OFFICE IS ENCOURAGING PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN MORE RURAL AREAS TO VOTE A WEEK OUT. SO WE’LL SEE A BIG RUSH, HOPEFULLY NEAR THE END OF THOSE VOTERS RETURNING THOSE BALLOTS. AND THEN, OF COURSE, ELECTION DAY IS STILL A BIG EVENT. THERE’S STILL GOING TO BE A LOT OF PEOPLE VOTING ON ELECTION DAY. THERE WILL BE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THAT BALLOT ON THEIR COUNTER, AND COME ELECTION DAY, THEY’RE LIKE, OH MY GOSH, WHERE DO I GO? TURN THIS IN AND THEY’LL GO IN PERSON AND VOTE. OKAY, PAUL, THANK YOU AS ALWAYS, REALLY INTERESTING NUMBERS, AND WE APPRECIATE YOU GETTING THOSE TO EVERYBODY EVERY DAY. INTERESTING TO SEE THE PROGRESS AND SOME KEY DATES TO KEEP IN MIND THE LAST DAY TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS NEXT MONDAY. COUNTIES THAT ARE PART OF THE VOTER’S CHOICE ACT WILL OPEN THEIR VOTE CENTERS ON SATURDAY, MAY 23RD. THE PRIMARY TUESDAY, JUNE 2ND. AS PAUL WAS SAYING, IF YOU LIVE IN A RURAL AREA, YOU MAY WANT TO GET YOUR BALLOT IN THE MAIL A
Early voting: More than 1.2M ballots returned for California primary election, data firm says
Updated: 12:17 PM PDT May 20, 2026
More than 1.28 million ballots have been returned ahead of California’s primary election on June 2, according to a data firm used by political campaigns.Data from Political Data Inc., as of Wednesday, showed an overall turnout of about 5.6% with more than 21 million ballots remaining. (Previous coverage of the early vote in the video above.)Democrats have returned more than 529,000 ballots for a turnout rate of 5.1%. Republicans have returned more than 479,000 for a rate of 8.3%. Those who declined to state a party returned more than 278,000 ballots for a 4% turnout. Last week, Paul Mitchell with Political Data Inc. noted that it was still early in the election period.”The early days part is important because some of what we’re seeing is which counties are quicker at returning the data to us,” he said. That being said, there has been higher Republican turnout so far, and among older, more conservative voters and homeowners. Voters ages 65 and older had a turnout rate of 11.8% with more than 704,000 ballots returned. Those ages 50-64 returned more than 281,000 ballots for a 5.5% rate. Those ages 35-49 had a turnout rate of 3.1% with more than 179,000 ballots returned. Voters 18-34 have returned more than 122,000 ballots for a 2% rate. “It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away,” Mitchell said.White voters continue to lead by ethnicity with 6.8% turnout, according to the tracker. Asian voters had turnout rates of 5.8%, Black 4.2% and Latino 3.4%.The early voting patterns don’t necessarily hold by the end of the voting period, Mitchell said. “We see these patterns where some voters still want to vote at the polls,” he said, noting older Latinos in particular. Mitchell said that historically, some of the early adopters of voting by mail were older voters, and a lot of those earliest adopters were older Republicans.”We did see some stuff in 2020 when Republicans and the Trump administration said ‘Don’t vote by mail,’ where that started to drop off. But it seems like it might be returning,” he said. Mitchell also said that gubernatorial primary elections are usually the lowest-turnout elections. Most voters turn their ballots in at the end of the election period, he said. He noted that the Postal Service is encouraging people in rural areas to vote at least a week out, if returning their ballot by mail, to make sure their ballots are postmarked in time to be counted. See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel
More than 1.28 million ballots have been returned ahead of California’s primary election on June 2, according to a data firm used by political campaigns.
Data from Political Data Inc., as of Wednesday, showed an overall turnout of about 5.6% with more than 21 million ballots remaining.
(Previous coverage of the early vote in the video above.)
Democrats have returned more than 529,000 ballots for a turnout rate of 5.1%. Republicans have returned more than 479,000 for a rate of 8.3%. Those who declined to state a party returned more than 278,000 ballots for a 4% turnout.
Last week, Paul Mitchell with Political Data Inc. noted that it was still early in the election period.
“The early days part is important because some of what we’re seeing is which counties are quicker at returning the data to us,” he said.
That being said, there has been higher Republican turnout so far, and among older, more conservative voters and homeowners.
Voters ages 65 and older had a turnout rate of 11.8% with more than 704,000 ballots returned. Those ages 50-64 returned more than 281,000 ballots for a 5.5% rate. Those ages 35-49 had a turnout rate of 3.1% with more than 179,000 ballots returned. Voters 18-34 have returned more than 122,000 ballots for a 2% rate.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away,” Mitchell said.
White voters continue to lead by ethnicity with 6.8% turnout, according to the tracker. Asian voters had turnout rates of 5.8%, Black 4.2% and Latino 3.4%.
The early voting patterns don’t necessarily hold by the end of the voting period, Mitchell said.
“We see these patterns where some voters still want to vote at the polls,” he said, noting older Latinos in particular.
Mitchell said that historically, some of the early adopters of voting by mail were older voters, and a lot of those earliest adopters were older Republicans.
“We did see some stuff in 2020 when Republicans and the Trump administration said ‘Don’t vote by mail,’ where that started to drop off. But it seems like it might be returning,” he said.
Mitchell also said that gubernatorial primary elections are usually the lowest-turnout elections. Most voters turn their ballots in at the end of the election period, he said.
He noted that the Postal Service is encouraging people in rural areas to vote at least a week out, if returning their ballot by mail, to make sure their ballots are postmarked in time to be counted.
See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel