Should Democrats vote for Matt Mahan or Katie Porter, who lag in the polls? Or should they vote strategically to enhance the chance of a Democrat making it to the November election?
Lea Suzuki/S.F. Chronicle
For voters feeling frustrated and uninspired ahead of California’s June 2 primary election: You’re not alone.
The governor’s race is, to put it mildly, a hot mess. The state’s political establishment and power brokers have twice closed ranks around milquetoast candidates despite their struggle to articulate even a basic policy platform.
First, it was former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who abandoned his gubernatorial bid after longstanding whispers of impropriety burst into the public realm with heinous sexual-assault allegations first revealed in a damning Chronicle report.
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Now, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is the chosen favorite — someone who’s offered little in his campaign beyond a calm avuncular demeanor.
Somewhat inexplicably, both men seem to appeal to voters, too.
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Swalwell topped the polls before he dropped out. Becerra is now the leading Democratic contender, neck-and-neck with Republican Steve Hilton, who’s endorsed by President Donald Trump. Trailing in most polls is Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer, whose puffs of populist rage come with little substance, closely followed by Republican Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff best known for seizing ballots from last year’s special election.
Meanwhile, Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter, whose deep grasp of policy makes her one of the strongest candidates in the race, is in fifth place.
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There’s a Gen Z phrase that I believe best captures the situation: Chat, we’re cooked.
Sure, voters are unpredictable, and polls can be wrong. But even inaccurate polls can shape campaigns — and influence what voters believe their choices are.
Many politicos view it as inevitable that Hilton will face off against either Becerra or Steyer in November. And in a state where there are nearly twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, it’s hard to imagine a Republican winning against a Democrat.
In other words, if a Republican and a Democrat advance to the general election, California will basically have already chosen its next governor.
Given the state’s lopsided voter registration, it would be far more substantive and competitive — and interesting — for two Democrats to face off in the general election. But with Hilton consolidating the GOP vote after receiving Trump’s endorsement, he’ll likely make it to the runoff.
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This has led many exhausted Democrats to engage in a frenzied game of mental chess as they try to maximize the value of their vote. Rather than considering the full field of candidates and choosing the best, most qualified contender — the Chronicle editorial board, of which I’m a member, determined that it’s Porter, though San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan also merits serious consideration — they’re winnowing their focus to who they think is likely to win.
So even if they’re not particularly fond of Steyer or Becerra, they’re nonetheless choosing between them.
I understand this sense of fatalism. But I don’t plan to gamify my vote.
Elections are not foregone conclusions. Treating them as such only increases the apathy, helplessness and resignation that prompt many Californians to sit out elections altogether, convinced their vote doesn’t matter.
I have no intention of artificially limiting myself to a subset of mediocre candidates simply because of what the polls say.
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An astonishing 57% of adults think the state is headed in the wrong direction, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday night. California’s issues are too great and its problems too acute to vote for a candidate merely because it seems like they’re going to win.
I plan to vote my conscience — for who I actually think is best qualified to get the state on the right track.
By this point, you may be yelling at your phone screen about my naivete. Despite more than 60 candidates in the race, only a few have the name recognition, party support, money and personality to ever stand a chance of becoming governor.
Yet I find something strangely hopeful in the fact that people run for office knowing they have basically no shot at winning. I spoke to many of them as part of the editorial board’s endorsement process, and they cited similar reasons for their long-shot runs: They were tired of complaining about the status quo and wanted to take action. They were dissatisfied with their elected officials’ decisions. They wanted to give voters an alternative choice.
In many ways, their gambit is futile. But in other ways, it isn’t futile at all.
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The simple existence of their candidacies is a repudiation of the electoral apathy that afflicts so many of us — the feeling that our votes don’t matter, that there’s no point making our voices heard because the outcome feels predetermined. Their presence is a reminder that nothing is set in stone.
It gives us permission to stop overthinking and try to do the right thing.
After all, Porter was leading the polls until two separate videos of her overreacting to a reporter’s simple question and yelling an expletive at a staffer went viral. Becerra, meanwhile, was barely registering in the polls until Swalwell exited the race in disgrace. (A similarly cringey viral video of Becerra instructing a reporter to limit “tough questions” and put together a “profile,” not a “gotcha piece,” has barely affected his campaign — an example of the double standard to which male and female candidates are held.)
Guest opinions in Open Forum and Insight are produced by writers with expertise, personal experience or original insights on a subject of interest to our readers. Their views do not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Chronicle editorial board, which is committed to providing a diversity of ideas to our readership.
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Nothing is predetermined. Circumstances can change by the minute.
Remember that when you’re casting your vote for governor.
Emily Hoeven is a columnist and editorial writer for the Opinion section.