A proposed California ruleset could wreak havoc on the tire and automotive industries by effectively banning the sale of aftermarket tires. California’s proposed “Replacement Tire Efficiency Program” would set standards requiring all aftermarket tires to be at least as efficient as the tires sold on new cars.While the proposed regulations could improve fuel-economy figures, they would also significantly shorten the average lifespan of a tire—resulting in more tires being manufactured and replaced.

The California Energy Commission (CEC) put forward a new proposal that could have a massive impact on the aftermarket tire industry. The proposed “Replacement Tire Efficiency Program” aims to reduce carbon emissions in the state by requiring that all replacement tires sold for cars be at least as efficient as the original equipment tires sold on new cars.

The proposal posits that OE tires are more energy- or fuel-efficient than their replacement counterparts, and that by improving the efficiency of replacement tires, California could cut back on the state’s CO2 emissions, and California drivers could save on fuel costs. The CEC’s proposal uses 2024 pricing to suggest that its new regulation could save drivers an average of $79 over the four-year lifespan of a set of tires between 2028 and 2031, and $153 over the same lifespan from 2031 onward. The CEC expects that the proposal would save $1 billion annually in fuel costs and reduce C02 emmissions by 2 million metric tons per year. However, the proposal overlooks several key details about how tires function and how they serve as pollutants.

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While it’s true that drivers often see a drop in fuel efficiency the first time that they swap their vehicle’s tires, the CO2 emitted by burning fuel is only one part of the equation when it comes to vehicle pollution. Since no two tire compounds are the same, we can’t give a detailed breakdown of the byproducts produced by tire manufacturers, but we can say that producing more tires does create more waste—and California’s proposal could significantly shorten the lifespan of the average replacement tire.

While tire manufacturers are generally tight-lipped about the lifespans of their factory tires, to the point that they won’t provide mileage warranties, their replacement all-season tires generally come with warranties of 60,000 miles or more. According to test data compiled by TyreReviews.com, California’s proposal could bring the life expectancy of replacement tires below 30,000 miles.

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Tire manufacturers, along with the automakers they work with, generally tune factory-equipped tires with a lower rolling resistance and a lower tread depth than their aftermarket equivalents. Take the Hankook Kinergy GT all-season tire. The 195/65R-15 tire that’s standard on the Hyundai Elantra weighs 16.9 pounds and comes with 8.5/32″ of tread depth. The replacement tire in the same exact size weighs 17.9 pounds and comes with 10/32″ of tread depth and gets a 70,000-mile warranty, while the OE tire doesn’t get any warranty. The setup works well for automakers because it helps their vehicles achieve more impressive fuel-economy figures—and consumers accept the tradeoff because tires are a known consumable expense.

More efficient tires would be a net benefit to everyone, but the CEC’s proposal would mean considerably more than improving the rolling resistance of replacement tires. You can find the CEC’s full proposal and associated documents on the Energy Commission’s website.

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Jack Fitzgerald’s love for cars stems from his as yet unshakable addiction to Formula 1.
After a brief stint as a detailer for a local dealership group in college, he knew he needed a more permanent way to drive all the new cars he couldn’t afford and decided to pursue a career in auto writing. By hounding his college professors at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, he was able to travel Wisconsin seeking out stories in the auto world before landing his dream job at Car and Driver. His new goal is to delay the inevitable demise of his 2010 Volkswagen Golf.