Prediction Markets for California Governor Primary: Who Will Advance?

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Votes are being tallied in the hotly contested primary for California governor, and the somewhat surprising in-progress results are providing the latest example of why polling either needs to be ignored or revamped
The two top vote-getters will advance to the November general election based on voting numbers and not party affiliation, making several matchups possible
As the three top contenders — Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, and Republican Steve Hilton — await the results, prediction markets continue to offer options to jump in and invest in the outcome as to which candidates will advance

California is one of the nation’s bluest states, reliably in Democratic hands. However, as the primaries for governor of the state and mayor of Los Angeles are showing, real world problems can supersede ideology. The electorate is clearly tired of extreme progressive policies that have stagnated progress, led to widespread crime without consequences, and caused growing anger at the direction of the state.

Candidates who suggest the state needs to go even further to the left are being repudiated.

The gubernatorial primary will not yield a candidate who surpasses 50% of the vote, making a runoff in November unavoidable. The only question is which candidates will be on the ballot to replace the term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.

As of this moment, news orgs say the race is too early to call, with nearly 60% of the votes having been tabulated.

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In addition to Hilton/Becerra/Steyer grappling for the top two spots, there have been some other noteworthy results.

Chad Bianco has done better than expected, accruing more than 11% of the votes counted so far. This speaks to a share of the electorate that does not care about electability and wants law and order above all else.

Neither Katie Porter nor Matt Mahan made much of a dent with the Democrats. For Porter, this could be the last gasp of her once burgeoning political career, as the more people got to know her, the less they wanted to see and hear her. For the youngish and relatively unknown Mahan, this was a test run that gained surprising traction when Eric Swalwell’s campaign imploded like the Titan submersible.

And speaking of Swalwell, he has nearly 19,000 votes as of this writing, demographics unknown, and presumably without a TV or access to the internet.

Hilton has nearly 28% of the votes to this point. Becerra is next at a shade over 25%. Steyer is closing in on 20%.

Prediction markets provide the opportunity to weigh in on the race while the votes are being tabulated and speculate on the final two candidates for the Election Day one-on-one in November.

California Governor Primary Results: Live Election Odds from Prediction Markets

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For those who want to take part in this market, the Kalshi promo code offers a $10 Sign-Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

Market volume has surpassed $4.5 million.

Users have already made their prediction as to what the Election Day race will be, as Becerra’s percentage is in the upper-90s.

The upstart Republican, Hilton, is at around 85%.

Steyer is in a familiar spot for him since he began his runs for various political offices. He’s well behind, sitting at around 17%. Barring a completely unexpected result when the remaining votes start coming in, his percentage is sure to drop fast.

It is possible to invest in the margin of victory, the vote percentage, and who will advance.

See detailed election betting odds for the California Governor Primary as well as other key elections.

Xavier Becerra (D)

Based on conventional wisdom, Becerra is now the clear pick to be the next governor of California. Surely, the unabashedly progressive Golden State will stick to its template and vote for the Democrat in November…won’t it?

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The market is functioning under the clearly obvious assumption that Becerra will be one of the two top vote-getters in the primary for a simple reason: He’s going to be one of the two top vote-getters in the primary.

As a known commodity, there is little risk to him when compared to the other candidates. At least the voters know what they’re getting. He’s been in public office at the local and national level for years. His platform is that of a “normal” Democrat in helping middle-class voters with costs, making healthcare accessible, providing job protection, and improving housing.

He was faltering early in the campaign, but several factors helped him, notably Swalwell’s self-imposed collapse, Porter’s unlikability, and Steyer simply not getting a foothold with voters.

Becerra will be one of the two candidates in the general.

Steve Hilton (R)

Hilton is not a right-wing zealot with extreme positions despite attempts to portray him that way based solely on his past as a Fox News host, and the fact that President Donald J. Trump endorsed him. By now, it’s clear that Californians are tired of policy platforms that reward bad behavior and make it nearly impossible for everyday working folk and people who have achieved a level of success to live and function in society.

His campaign is quite simple. He wants to address the homeless problem, put a stop to the rampant bureaucracy, and let law enforcement do its job.

The surprising performance in the primary is the latest Hilton achievement. As recently as last week, it seemed impossible that he could actually win, but if he gets into a one-on-one with Becerra with the money that will undoubtedly roll in once Republicans and moderate Democrats believe he can win, he has a very real shot.

First, he needs to emerge as a top-2 vote-getter in the primary, and it is almost assured that he will do that.

Tom Steyer (D)

The market for Steyer getting into the general for governor reflects his chances. Some are investing in it, but it seems due more to a chance at a big profit if he manages to pull off a stunning comeback than a belief in his chances.

His past is that of a dedicated progressive. Going back 40+ years, he’s supported Democrats. His campaign promises are reasonable enough, focusing on costs for the working class and increasing access to public services. He’s big on climate change and steadfastly wants to rein in ICE.

But his campaign has not resonated with rank-and-file Democrats or anyone else.

Self-made billionaires tend to listen to others at will. However, if there’s anyone in his life who can speak truth to power and money and can get him to listen, they should inform him that voters at a local and national level do not like him and don’t want to put him in office.

If, by some miracle, he is on the ballot in November, he’s going to lose. But that won’t be a problem. He’s getting his losing done early…in the primary.

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