The Proposition 50 vote Tuesday will determine whether California uses a temporarily redrawn congressional district map that would leave Fresno County split into six congressional districts, instead of the current four.

Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State, said passage of the new map would place more attention on Fresno County during the 2026 midterm congressional races, which would determine if Democrats can retake the U.S. House of Representatives.

If Democrats take back the House, that could mean a reduced ICE presence in the Central Valley and the state, and more social support programs, he said.

“There would be a ratcheting up of the political tension between President Trump and Congress if Democrats retook one or both chambers of Congress, certainly,” he said.

On a practical level, passage of Prop 50 would not really change much day-to-day for residents at the county level, Holyoke said.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposal came after the Texas Legislature approved a new redistricting map with President Donald Trump’s support, a move intended to secure more seats in Congress for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. California’s vote is an attempt by Democratic leaders to neutralize Texas’s move.

Typically, the United States redistricts every 10 years following the U.S. Census to reflect population shifts. But Prop. 50, If adopted, would use a new map early for the next three elections.

The map proposed targets up to five Republican-held seats statewide and shifts some districts so they include more Democratic-leaning voters.

Some residents in Fresno County would end up in different congressional districts, including a district that would stretch to San Jose. The city of Fresno would become part of four districts, instead of the current three. And Clovis would become part of three districts, instead of just the current one.

In the current map, effective since 2020, the entire city of Clovis lies within the 20th Congressional District held by Rep. Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield). Under Prop. 50, Clovis would be split among three districts: District 5 represented by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) to the north, District 21 represented Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) to the west, and District 20.

In the current congressional district map, Fresno County is split among four districts:

The 21st district,represented by Costa, a Democrat, includes much of the city of Fresno and surrounding agricultural areas in the San Joaquin Valley.

The 20th district, represented by Fong, a Republican, includes the eastern and foothill areas of Fresno, including the city of Clovis.

District 5 is represented by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove), and encompasses several counties, including portions of Fresno County and the Yosemite National Park area.

District 13 is represented by Adam Gray (D-Merced), and includes parts of Fresno, Madera, Merced and Stanislaus counties.

Under Prop. 50, Fresno would be split among six districts, adding the 18th and 22nd:

The 22nd district, held by U.S. Rep David Valado (R-Hanford), would expand to include more western parts of Fresno County, including northwest Fresno and Kerman, gaining a Democratic registration advantage, and leaving out the Republican-leaning Coalinga and Lemoore.

The 18th District, held by U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose), would gain a big portion of voters in San Jose, and the 13th District would get a Democratic registration increase of 3%.

The U.S. Department of Justice plans to deploy election observers in five California counties, including Fresno, for the Nov. 4 election to “ensure transparency.” Newsom opposes this decision, calling it an intimidation tactic meant to suppress the vote. The City of Fresno announced Thursday that it will also send in its own observers at each polling location in the city in response to community concern.

The Fresno City Council has not taken a stance on Prop 50, with council members on both sides of the issue and some not taking any public position.

The Fresno County Board of Supervisors voted 3-1 on Sept. 23 to oppose the redistricting. Garry Bredefeld, Nathan Magsig and Buddy Mendes, all Republicans, voted in favor of opposing Prop. 50, while Luis Chavez, a Democrat, voted no. Brian Pacheco, who is also a Democrat, abstained, according to meeting minutes.

The Clovis Council also voted to oppose Prop. 50.

Many boards across the Valley have also taken a similar stance, including Kings County.

“A lot of rural constituents, particularly, do not really want Prop. 50 to pass,” Holyoke said. “More of the people living out in the rural areas tend to be Republican.”