San Diego County is looking to approve a new budget that increases spending by $523 million — but some are worried it is setting the stage for a budget crisis similar to the city of San Diego.
The county’s budget adds roughly 100 new positions to the payroll. Some of the funding comes from reserves, which advocates say is necessary because of cuts from the Trump administration to food stamps and Medicaid.
The city of San Diego’s budget crisis has been tied to an increased payroll and new programs that struggled to be funded in leaner years.
Democratic county supervisors have maintained that the county’s finances are strong and not at risk of veering into a crisis. Watchdogs have said the new budget uses one-time funding for ongoing expenses, and the county has yet to determine how it might cover those costs in the long term.
Question: Is San Diego County on the right track with its $9.16 billion budget?
Economists
Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research
NO: Expanding programs and staffing without identified, sustainable funding resources places the county on an unsound fiscal path. Using one-time revenues for ongoing obligations is not fiscally responsible, masks structural deficits and shifts burdens to future budgets. This undermines financial stability, erodes reserves intended for true emergencies, and increases the likelihood of necessary cuts or emergency measures in the future. Sound budgeting should align recurring expenditures with reliable, ongoing revenues and not jeopardize long-term financial health.
Alan Gin, University of San Diego
YES: The county government has had costs imposed on it due to changes by the federal government in programs such as Medicaid and SNAP. It has been estimated that the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” could cost the county $300 million and require 1,000 new staff to administer over time. To prevent medical and food crises for many people, it is using $68.4 million out of the county’s estimated $1.3 billion in reserves to deal with these extra costs.
James Hamilton, UC San Diego
NO: One of the missteps that contributed to the city’s budget problems was hiring new city workers at a faster rate than the city was growing. This created not just a current budget drain but also saddled us with long-term pension costs. The county is making the same mistake. Much of the increased spending will be financed by using one-time funds, and there is no identified funding source for the very expensive new Vista Detention Facility.
Norm Miller, University of San Diego
NO: Anytime you use emergency reserves, there is a problem of some sort. There have been some cuts in federal support and some real need to replace these funds, but this budget does little to address long-term funding gaps, such as new sources of revenues or services that might be cut. Politicians are notoriously bad at long-term budgeting, and the current system does not penalize them for taking advantage of reserves set aside by more prudent administrations.
David Ely, San Diego State University
NO: While the county’s finances are currently stable, there are longer term issues that have been raised by the San Diego County Taxpayers Association and other analysts that are concerning. Notably, the reliance on reserves to cover operating expenses in the proposed budget and how the expenses will be covered in the long run, exposure to possible reductions in funding from the state and federal governments, and the adequacy of funding for capital improvements.
Executives
Phil Blair, Manpower
YES: They are spending money when and where it is desperately needed. But it is essential that they always live within their budget.
Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates
NO: The $9.16 billion budget expands services but rests on unstable state and federal revenues. It relies on recalibration, staff shifts and efficiencies to avoid cuts, signaling structural strain rather than stability. A 28% increase in employees over 15 years is troubling, especially as public health and social‑service costs rise, capital investment lags, and the county grows increasingly dependent on outside tax dollars.
Austin Neudecker, Weave Growth
NO: While the county’s finances are healthier than the city’s, relying on reserves and one-time funding to support ongoing programs is a warning sign. Some spending increases may be justified, especially to fill immediate gaps in federal support. However, adding permanent positions without a sustained funding source risks creating the same structural challenges that created the city’s budget shortfall. Good intentions do not eliminate the need for long-term fiscal discipline.
Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health
NO: At the very least, I’d urge caution. California’s Welfare and Institutions Code (Section 17000) requires the counties to provide indigent medical care/meet the healthcare needs of the county. The impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is going to reduce funding to states, counties and hospitals. I would urge caution until we understand the true impact.
Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere
NO: The county’s on a one-way ticket to the same fate as the city. Spend, spend, spend to grow county government while population declines and revenue growth slows. It’s also relying on one-time funding for ongoing expenses or pulling from reserves with no long-term plan. Spend more than you bring in, create a deficit, and then try to raise taxes or cut programs or services to feed the machine. The county is simply copying the city’s playbook toward a similar budget crisis.
Mark Kersey, San Diego County Taxpayers Assoc.
NO: The county spends more every year to grow its workforce while its infrastructure is allowed to crumble. Our analysis found that county staffing has grown 28% since 2011, over four times faster than the county’s population, which grew just 6.5% over the same period. More than half of the county’s general fund comes from Sacramento and Washington, but county data shows it has not used its own discretion to prepare for planned cuts. That is not sustainable.
Not participating this week:
Gary London, London Moeder AdvisorsCaroline Freund, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and StrategyRay Major, economist
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