Good morning from Atlanta,
It has not been often the Padres get a start like they did last night from JP Sears.
Sears did not allow a hit until the fourth inning and allowed two runs in his fifth (and final) inning. In all, Sears and three relievers allowed four hits in what became a 3-2 loss to the Braves.
What a waste.
Last night was just the 35th game in which the Braves have been held to fewer than four runs. That is the fewest in the major leagues. It was just the 10th of those games they have won.
The Padres have allowed three or fewer runs in 46 games, which is 13th most in the major leagues. They are 34-12 in those games, which is the fourth-worst winning percentage (.739) in such games.
When allowing exactly three runs, the Padres are an MLB-worst 5-11.
This isn’t the first (or 10th) time we have talked about the offense and pitching not being able to align often enough.
But as I wrote in my game story (here) from last night, inconsistency will perhaps be the ultimate downfall of the 2026 Padres.
The problem is that baseball is so complex, so random, so unpredictable. And the Padres don’t have the margin remaining to allow for its whims.
Braves starter Bryce Elder entered the game with a 4.12 ERA and had allowed 23 runs (22 earned) in 18 innings over his past four starts. But this guy was an All-Star three years ago. His 10 quality starts this season are more than any Padres pitcher.
He is a pitcher capable of doing what he did last night, allowing solo home runs to Manny Machado and Ty France and three other hits across six-plus innings.
The Padres outhit the Braves. They were not awful at the plate.
“I thought we threw the ball well, thought we had good at-bats,” Machado said. “They just scored one more run. I think it was a great game overall by both teams, and we just just came up short. … We’ve been taking some good at-bats over the last couple weeks. We’ve just got to continue doing it as a collective group. We’ve got some guys swinging the bat really well right now, and we’ve just got to just try to continue it as best as we can.”
Machado is not wrong about the offense.
Since June 8, the Padres have the major leagues’ 12th-highest average (.252) and 12th-highest OPS (.747) and have scored the 16th-most runs per game (4.61).
Even that, though, points to the inconsistency of the season.
But they have to find a way to be a little better (score a little more). They are 12th in OPS and 16th in runs per game while going 16-20 since June 8. Notice that from April 5 to 27, they were eighth in OPS and fifth in runs scored. They led the major leagues with a 16-4 record in that stretch.
The better teams most often flip those two stats or are much more productive in both areas. The Brewers are seventh in OPS and fourth in runs scored. The Braves are 10th in OPS and sixth in runs scored. The Dodgers are first in OPS and third in runs scored.
“A couple big solo home runs,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said of Machado and France. “It’d be nice if somebody was on base. That changes the complexion of the game.”
No one would expect the Padres to score double-digit runs every game or even five runs every game. But given their consistent inconsistency on offense, it was fitting they followed Sunday’s 19-2 victory with what happened last night.
“It’s tough,” France said. “You know it’s in there. We just need to find a way to be more consistent with it and we’ve kind of got to figure it out fast.”
Another missed opportunity
As crucial as they say this trip is, as they determine what course to take at the trade deadline, several people in the Padres organization predicted last week that whatever happened in these 10 games the situation would likely be just as muddled when the Padres get home.
They might be right.
The Padres have started the trip 1-3. Yet they have gained a game in the standings.
That is because the Marlins, who were in the National League’s final wild-card spot at the All-Star break, have lost four times since.
The Cardinals held the No.6 seed alone for a day but have lost three in a row and now share the final spot with the Pirates, who lost last night, and the Marlins.
The Diamondbacks could have taken over but also lost yesterday.
The Nationals have leapfrogged the Padres since the break by winning three of four.
Feast or famine
The Padres’ prince of inconsistency is Jackson Merrill.
Given how his season has gone, it wasn’t all that surprising to see him go 0-for-4 last night, a day after getting four hits.
Merrill has been so good and so bad in his third big-league season.
“Yeah, I know,” he said yesterday.
It’s not as if he has lost the ability that made him the runner-up to Paul Skenes in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2024.
With his two home runs and stolen base on Sunday, Merrill became one of five MLB players with at least 20 stolen bases and at least 12 home runs in 2026.
Sunday was his seventh game with three or more hits. That makes him one of 48 players with at least that many three-hit games.
Merrill also has 15 games with two hits.
But of the 89 other players with at least 22 multi-hit games, none has a batting average as low as Merrill’s .219 mark.
Yesterday was his 44th game with zero hits. There are just 44 players with that many hitless games this season.
“I don’t know,” he said. “I need to find consistency. I just need to get back to myself. I need to go out there and compete. … I don’t have an answer, and I probably won’t have an answer. So the only thing to do is keep going.”
There was some thought in the organization earlier in the season that Merrill was allowing his exasperation to bring him down and further affect his performance.
He acknowledged battling that but has spoken repeatedly about taking pride in going out every day with the priority of not allowing anything negative at the plate to affect him in center field.
“I feel like I have held in a lot of emotion,” he said. “Last year, I let out more emotion and I looked more frustrated. This year, yeah, I’m frustrated. But I’m trying my best to stay in the game on both sides and not give in and let it slow me down.”
The Padres have kept Merrill in the No.2 spot in the order for the past 10 games, with manager Craig Stammen explaining it was in part because they need him to get going if they are to be their best version.
“They have trust in me,” Merrill said. “I want to perform for them. That’s what I need to do.”
Opposite of inconsistent
It seems France is going to either will the Padres to a wild-card spot or help some other team make a playoff run.
France’s homer last night was his third in two days and fifth in the past six games.
While it is the first time in his career he has five homers in six games, it is not at all shocking given what he has done almost all season.
France’s seven games with multiple extra-base hits this season are tied with Machado and 12 others for 13th most in the major leagues. And France’s 58 starts are fewer than all but one player he is tied with or is ahead of him on that list.
He is second on the Padres with 15 home runs, sixth with 11 doubles and tied for the lead with two triples while having the seventh-most plate appearances.
He has put together those numbers in the most consistent manner of anyone on the team.
France began the season 0-for-10 before batting .313 with a .926 OPS over the next 35 games. He then endured a 3-for-33 skid over 11 games. Since June 19, his 1.168 OPS ranks third in the major leagues among qualifying players.
Here is where he stands among players with 200 plate appearances this season:
Pitching help?
The Padres front office will be monitoring what is happening in Peoria, Ariz., this week (and probably San Diego next week) almost as closely as they are watching the team.
One of the things that will help them determine their course of action at the trade deadline is the progress they assess from starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta.
Neither will be back by the Aug. 3 trade deadline. They might not have even begun a rehab assignment.
But the team needs to know whether it can reasonably be believed one or both will be back and be able to contribute at a high level in a timely fashion (before September).
Both of the right-handers, sidelined with elbow issues, are expected to face hitters for the first time this week.
What happens after that is probably another one or two times facing hitters, perhaps in a simulated game.
People who have seen Musgrove and Pivetta throw or gotten reports about those throwing sessions have expressed greater optimism about their progress over the past week or so.
There is the potential for rehab assignments to begin the first week of August.
Multiple people said the goal is to get them built up to five innings. While Stammen laid out a possible blueprint that would have them making at least four rehab starts to get to that point, they could require more or less than that.
For Pivetta, who departed his fourth start this season with what the team has termed an elbow flexor strain, there is another time element.
He has a $14 million player option for next season and an $18 million player option for 2028. Given his injury, he is virtually certain to exercise the option for ‘27. However, a clause in his contract allows the Padres to void his option years if he spends 130 consecutive days on the injured list. He would need to return by Aug. 22 to beat that deadline, which means he has to come out of every step healthy and progress quickly to even have a chance.
Bunt, blast
Before Machado hit his 20th home run of the season in last night’s fourth inning, he laid down a nearly perfect bunt in the first inning and sprinted to first base without drawing a throw.
It was his first bunt single since 2017.
He made it down the line in 4.28 seconds, his fastest home-to-first time since 2021.
The curious thing is that last night was the eighth bunt hit of Machado’s career and the third time he has also hit a home run in the same game he has a bunt hit.
“Just trying to get a rally going there,” Machado said.
Machado finished 2-for-4 to get his season average up to .201.
While that is 37 points lower than he has ever been hitting 97 games into a season, he is on pace for his typical season in terms of power.
Machado has hit at least 20 homers for the 11th time in his career. He is the only player to have reached the mark in each of the past 11 full (162-game) seasons.
He got there yesterday in his 406th plate appearance of the 2026. The only times he got to 20 home runs faster with the Padres was 2019 (345) and 2023 (370).
Machado has 389 career homers, tied with Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench.
He ranks seventh all-time among third baseman.
Solid night
Sears got through the Braves’ three All-Stars on nine pitches in the first inning. He did the same with the three batters he faced in the second inning. He was through his third 1-2-3 inning in another 13 pitches.
Ozzie Albies became the first Braves batter to reach base when he lined a slider below the zone into left field for a single, but the inning ended one pitch later on Matt Olson’s grounder to France that the Padres’ first baseman threw to second to start a double play.
He hung a sweeper to Michael Harris II that was hit over the wall with one out in the fifth before catcher Freddy Fermin’s glove got in the way of Mauricio Dubón’s bat on the next pitch and Joey Bart lined a changeup at shin level down the left field line that hit a side wall and died, allowing Dubón to score easily.
Run, Dubi, run!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/t528DuF18d
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 21, 2026
That was it.
For the first time in his five starts this season, Sears did not walk a batter.
Last night was the third time he went at least five innings and allowed two or fewer runs. That is tied with Michael King for most on the team since Sears made his season debut on June 24.
The Andujar effect
The Padres lost one of their most capable hitters for at least the rest of the month when Miguel Andujar was placed on the injured list with a fractured right wrist.
You can read my pregame notebook (here) to learn how that happened.
Andujar has served as the Padres’ designated hitter more games (56) than anyone else.
Stammen talked before the game about the ability to move the DH around among the regular infielders and get players like Luis Rengifo and Sung-Mun Song more playing time.
Rengifo pinch-hit for Gavin Sheets last night and then replaced Sheets in left field and finished the night 2-for-2 after going 3-for-5 on Sunday.
“The way Rengifo is swinging, he’s working his way into the lineup, for sure,” Stammen said. “You take at-bats like that, you continue to get hits, it’s hard to keep a guy like that on the bench. Although you have someone like that on the bench, it’s a weapon also.”
Rengifo has now played 259 innings in the outfield in his career.
Recalling catcher Rodolfo Durán to take Andujar’s roster spot also allows for the Padres to more freely use Luis Campusano at DH to get his bat in the lineup if they don’t want him to catch.
He is expected to catch Walker Buehler tonight, pending his testing his “sore” abdominal area this afternoon.
Jase Bowen replaced Campusano at first base after his pinch-hit walk in the seventh inning gave the Padres runners at the corners with two outs.
“We thought Jase could possibly steal a base right there,” Stammen said. “… But yeah, also we’re monitoring Campusano’s workload. That’s for sure. That’s part of the decision-making also.”
Tidbits
Tatis stole his 25th base on Sunday, tied for fourth most in the major leagues. Last night, he was caught for the 10th time, tied for second most in the majors.
Albies’ home run in the sixth inning was the first allowed by Wandy Peralta since April 28, a span of 36 innings over 29 games.
The Padres fell to 13-14 in one-run games. It is generally accepted that winning or losing one-run games is fairly arbitrary. But it is not nothing. Check out their record in one-run games each of the previous five seasons:
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.