For the San Diego Padres, maybe it’s fitting that Major League Baseball’s general managers meetings will return to Las Vegas next week. Few heads of baseball operations are more of a wild card than A.J. Preller.

When Preller last spoke publicly, he discussed the exit of Mike Shildt, the Padres’ third manager since 2021. He sidestepped questions about his own future and proximity to lame-duck status, instead declaring his love for the franchise and adding that he was “looking forward to this offseason.”

More than three weeks have passed. As of Wednesday morning, the Padres had yet to announce a managerial replacement or a contract extension for Preller. (Team and industry sources say that could change any day — and that Preller has seemed as involved as ever in the search for Shildt’s replacement.) The club’s oldest player, who happens to occupy its position of greatest need, has undergone surgery that will sideline him until 2027, assuming Yu Darvish intends to resume pitching at age 40.

With a potential work stoppage looming after next season, it remains to be seen where Darvish, the Padres and other clubs will find themselves a year from now. San Diego, coming off consecutive 90-win campaigns, still has a talented, if aging, core. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking as loudly as ever for Preller to construct a legitimate World Series contender.

It all makes for another high-stakes offseason at Petco Park. Here’s where things stand at the moment.

Major team needs

Start with a new manager. Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla, St. Louis Cardinals icon Albert Pujols and former Padres catcher Nick Hundley have received multiple interviews for the job. Those are known candidates — Preller has surprised before, including when he hired Shildt’s predecessor, Bob Melvin, away from the Oakland Athletics.

Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla is a candidate to become the team’s next manager. (Matt Thomas / San Diego Padres / Getty Images)

For the next manager and others throughout the organization, clarity regarding Preller’s contract status feels like another prerequisite. There is a year left on an extension the GM received in 2021. Team sources say Preller has spoken in recent weeks with Padres chairman John Seidler about a new deal, one that could be finalized at or around the same time as the hiring of Shildt’s replacement.

Such an outcome, though, would not solve the holes in the club’s roster. Starting pitching is the biggest. With Darvish expected to miss the 2026 season after an ulnar collateral ligament repair, the projected rotation currently consists of Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez and a bunch of question marks.

The Padres could attempt to provide an internal answer by converting a former starter such as Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon. Even with closer Robert Suarez off to free agency, San Diego’s bullpen theoretically remains deep enough to withstand multiple departures.

First base is the team’s other conspicuous need. Luis Arraez is a free agent, and the Padres could move Jake Cronenworth back from second base, although that would open a different hole in the infield while failing to solve an overarching deficiency. After finishing 28th in home runs in 2025, San Diego requires more power production, wherever it can get it.

Free-agent decisions

The Padres’ list of free agents: pitchers Dylan Cease, Michael King, Suarez, Kyle Hart and Nestor Cortes; infielders Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn, Jose Iglesias and Tyler Wade; and catcher Elias Díaz.

Cease and King are prime candidates to receive a $22.025 million qualifying offer. Both starters are widely expected to get it before Thursday’s 2 p.m. PT deadline. And both are widely expected to decline.

The Padres are interested in bringing back King and O’Hearn. It would not be surprising if neither player returns. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects a three-year, $75 million free-agent contract for King and a two-year, $36 million deal for O’Hearn. FanGraphs estimates that San Diego, before filling any roster needs, is carrying a 2026 payroll of $195 million and a luxury tax figure of $228 million. Next year’s tax threshold is $244 million.

Arbitration, non-tender and trade considerations

The Padres’ list of salary-arbitration-eligible players, along with MLB Trade Rumors’ salary projections:

Reliever Jason Adam ($6.8 million)
Designated hitter/left fielder/first baseman Gavin Sheets ($4.3M)
Morejon ($3.6M)
Starting pitcher JP Sears ($3.5M)
Miller ($3.4M)
Catcher Freddy Fermin ($1.8M)
Catcher Luis Campusano ($1M)

Campusano could be a non-tender candidate, but his projected salary is affordable, and the Padres lack catching depth behind Fermin. Team officials believe Adam will make a relatively early return next season from surgery to repair a ruptured quad tendon. It’s possible the club will offer contracts to all of its arbitration-eligible players by the Nov. 21 tender/non-tender deadline.

As for prime trade candidates, the Padres don’t appear to have many on their 40-man roster or in a recently depleted farm system. Cronenworth has drawn outside interest for years, but he has an eight-team no-trade list that could complicate any potential relocation.

Still, Preller remains perhaps the most aggressive GM in baseball. He has pulled off scores of once-unexpected deals, including when he surrendered top shortstop prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Miller from the Athletics. Some teams are already under the impression that the Padres will be open this winter to discussing such prospects as catcher Ethan Salas and left-hander Kruz Schoolcraft, who was drafted in July.