Ty France is penning a heck of a comeback story.

He’s second on the team in fWAR (1.9) and homers (15) and leads the team in isolated power (.270), slugging (.550) and weighted runs created plus (142).

On the heels of having to sign a minor league deal even after winning a Gold Glove last year, that should create an interesting free agent profile for the 32-year-old San Diego State product, whenever the assumed lockout ends next year.

Yet the fact that he ranks so high in so many categories is precisely why the Padres’ playoff odds are sitting at 8.8% heading into Tuesday’s 4:15 p.m. start in Atlanta on Padres.TV.

France should be supplementing a roster that ranks ninth with a $229.9 million cash payroll, according to spotrac.com

Not keeping it afloat.

But Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 2.2 fWAR, but he’s sitting only seven homers after leading the NL with 42 in 2021 and averaging 23 homers in three post-steroid-suspension seasons. Xander Bogaerts is third on the team with a 1.5 fWAR despite an 84 wRC+ and Manny Machado is fourth with a 1.3 fWAR. Machado leads the team with 20 homers but his .201 batting average is sixth-worst among MLB qualifiers.

Then there’s Jackson Merrill, who is sixth on the team with 1.0 fWAR and hitting .219/.275/.359 in his third season in the majors.

Which brings us to a different kind of lineup on Tuesday.

Buehler on the bump. pic.twitter.com/2b79gDkYcU

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 21, 2026

France (.887 OPS) will hit cleanup a third straight game, Bogaerts (.637 OPS) will start in the eight-hole for the first time since 2015 and Merrill (.634 OPS) will bat fifth after hitting second the last 10 games.

Second baseman Jake Cronenworth (.554 OPS) will bat second and Luis Campusano (.963 OPS) will catch and bat sixth for the second time this season, his highest spot in the order this year.

The slumping Gavin Sheets (.727 OPS) will bat seventh for the first time since April 3. Sheets hit .205/.279/.436 in June and is hitting .140/.306/.180 in July.

Luis Rengifo (.563 OPS) will bat ninth and serve as the DH in his second start as a Padre.

Here is how the Braves will line up for Game 2:

4️⃣0️⃣ on the mound!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/vBUdXTBwK7

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 21, 2026

 

Tuesday’s pitching matchup

Padres RHP Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.36 ERA)

He’s got a 16.36 ERA over three starts (11 IP) in July after posting a 1.71 ERA in five starts in June. He has an 11-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio so far this month. Buehler has a 3.75 ERA in six regular-season starts against the Braves, the last in 2025 (5⅔ IP, 5 ER).

Here is how Buehler has fared against current Braves:

Braves RHP Reynaldo Lopez (4-2, 3.50 ERA)

He’s got a 3.50 ERA in four starts since rejoining the rotation, topping out at five innings and 85 pitches so far. Lopez has a 3.27 ERA this year as reliever (22 IP and a 3.63 ERA as a starting pitcher (39 ⅔ IP). Lopez has a 3.93 Era in 18⅓ innings against the Padres. He last faced them in a no-decision last year (5 IP, 3 ER).

Here is how Lopez has fared against current Padres: