Good morning,
This is a day to talk positively, as if the Padres have a chance.
Because they do.
They always technically have. It is just something more than theoretical now. They finally played for three whole days like a team that could actually contend.
Could. That remains dependent on how they continue to perform and what moves A.J. Preller makes in the coming week.
But a sweep of the Marlins completed yesterday put the Padres closer to a playoff spot than they had been since July 1.
My game story (here) from yesterday’s 5-3 victory talks about the situation the Padres have put themselves in thanks in large part to the eighth-inning home runs by Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill that took them from down by two to up by a run.
That story also includes this quote from Jake Cronenworth: “ I think if we keep playing like this, we’re going to put ourselves in a position to make A.J. help this team.”
Almost no one in the organization — probably not even Craig Stammen if he was hooked up to a polygraph — believes the Padres are a contender as presently constructed. But promising signs emerged to make it seem they could be good enough with the right additions to the pitching staff by the trade deadline, which is one week from today.
The Padres’ offense has been better for several weeks, a top-10 group since June 8 and a top-three group since June 30. More on that later.
They have made a major alteration to their pitching plans in an attempt to at least get through this week, and over the weekend they pieced together 27 innings in which they allowed a total of seven runs (six earned). More on that later as well.
Looking ahead
The Padres also have time on their side and enough games remaining against teams they are trying to chase down to kinda sorta almost control their destiny.
They play the Diamondbacks seven more times, including the first four games after the trade deadline.
They have three games remaining against the Pirates and three against the Nationals, all at home.
The team the Padres cannot afford to get hot is the Cardinals, who won the already-completed season series.
The teams in front of the Padres — we are, for now, assuming only the sixth seed is attainable — will knock each other off to a certain extent as well.
The Diamondbacks and Pirates play a three-game series that begins tonight in Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals and Pirates meet seven more times. The Cardinals host the Nationals for three games in September.
The Pirates and Nationals do not play again. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks do not play again.
All of the teams ahead of them have a harder strength of schedule than the Padres.
When considering historical perspective, the hole the Padres put themselves in means they will have to defy the odds.
The minimum number of victories that got an NL team into the postseason since the playoff fields were expanded to six teams in each league in 2022 was 83 by the Reds last season. The Diamondbacks made it with 84 victories in 2023.
The Padres will try to become just the 11th team since 1961 (the first season with a 162-game schedule) to reach at least 83 victories after starting the season 50-53, which is what the Padres were before the weekend sweep.
There have been 84 teams to have a 50-53 record 103 games into a 162-game season. Of those, three got to .500 and two finished 82-80.
Here are the 10 teams that rebounded from 50-53 to close 33-26 or better:
Back in action
For Merrill, his resurgence at the plate is simple.
“Getting back to being myself,” he has said repeatedly.
Hitting in the major leagues, however, is not simple. And how he got back, well, that depends on who you ask.
As one of the Padres’ most important players struggled — batting just above or just below .200 most of the season’s first 2½ months with an OPS that has never risen above .700 since mid-April — there was talk about waning confidence and being indecisive at the plate and his frustration making it all worse.
Merrill scoffed at much of that analysis. But then scoffing is one of the things he does most.
He also dismissed the idea of employing anything different physically.
“I haven’t tried to change my mechanics at all,” Merrill said. “I actually feel like I’ve tried to just be myself, swing like me, like I always had since high school. I watched high school video. I always was swinging like this — free, easy — and hit the ball everywhere.”
The free and easy part, everyone agrees with.
There are few hitters with whom it is so obvious when they are right. The smoothness of Merrill’s upward swing and ability to make contact are rivaled only by his confidence when he feels good. He wears his aggressiveness like a shield in those times.
Now, despite Merrill’s contention, logic dictates that returning to a previous approach means there was a change.
“It’s really nothing,” Stammen said. “Just like (becoming) a little loose, be a little looser .”
Merrill has, indeed, made a mechanical change. He has moved his hands out from behind his body more, putting him in position to be quicker and unswerving to the ball.
Why his hands ever drifted backward, no one can say. Hitting is a mystery sometimes. The men who do it are almost constantly wrestling with their body’s whims as much as they are battling pitchers.
“He was just really wrapped up,” hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. said recently. “He was fighting to get to every pitch. … Now he is freed up, able to use his hand speed to be direct to the ball.”
Merrill has been better for more than a month. But inconsistency had his numbers fluctuating wildly. He would have three hits and then go 1-for-19, two hits twice in a row and then go 3-for-17.
But he truly took off on this trip.
Merrill was hitless in the final game before the All-Star break and the first two games in Kansas City coming out of the break, then went 4-for-6 with two home runs the next day and is 9-for-24 with three home runs and two doubles in the seven games since.
“I was literally just watching videos from high school one night, and I said, ‘(Expletive) it. I’m gonna go to the field the next day and swing like this, see what happens.’” Merrill said yesterday. “The next day was the day game in Kansas City. I hit two homers, so kind of been rolling since then.”
DH moves around
Machado, whose two-run homer tied the game two batters before Merrill put the Padres ahead, served as the Padres’ designated hitter yesterday, his sixth time doing so in the past 22 games after he was the DH just five times in the season’s first 84 games.
“Your body asks for it sometimes,” said Machado, who also drove in the Padres’ first run with a double. “You kind of need it a little bit. Trying to play a full season and trying to finish off the second half pretty healthy and strong, so just trying to get off my feet. The turf doesn’t really help for me, so I told Craig I try to avoid it as much as I can and get off my feet.”
That is a change. Machado used to resist not playing in the field.
Machado, who turned 34 earlier this month, was given four DH days in the final 12 games before the All-Star break for the sole purpose of giving him a break from playing defense.
He is part of a rotating cast for now.
In the six games since Miguel Andujar went on the injured list July 20 with a fracture in his right wrist, the Padres have had five different players serve as DH.
Andujar is eligible to come off the IL on Aug. 4. But he is wearing a brace on his wrist and is not swinging a bat yet, so it seems the DH carousel will continue for a while longer.
All together now
It cannot be stressed enough how important it is that Merrill and Machado are producing together for, really, the first stretch this season.
“Even though it was really bad, and it was like nobody’s hitting, it was kind of like, ‘Well, if they all get out of it at the same time, it could be really good,’” Stammen said. “And we’ve seen that over the last few weeks of those guys kind of coming out of that slumber a little bit, and they’ve been very crucial for us, winning games and scoring more runs.”
It is especially so the past month, as Merrill is batting .294 with an .844 OPS in 26 games since June 27 and Machado is batting .293 with a 1.008 OPS in 24 games since June 28.
But their revival began earlier.
Since June 9, Merrill is batting .275 with a .788 OPS and Machado is batting .276 with a .956 OPS.
That is also about when the Padres’ offense began its resurgence following an epically bad month-plus in which the Padres’ batting average was tied for the fourth-worst in the major leagues over any 36-game span in the past 27 years.
“They picked themselves up off the mat,” Stammen said. “They were getting beat up from everywhere and anywhere, including internally. Like, ‘We’ve got to get better.’ And they put the work in the cage. They basically put their nose down and said, ‘We’ve got to figure this out.’ The hitting coaches were open to any and all ideas, and they worked together. They’ve created an environment where it’s about working hard, it’s about working on the right things, and then also trusting each other and letting this play out and patience, trusting the talent that we have in the room.”
Since June 30, the Padres’ .792 OPS is third-highest in the major leagues, and their 5.7 runs per game ranks sixth.
All together now II
The Padres took a break yesterday from their new all-staff approach to getting through games.
Walker Buehler, one of their two remaining true starting pitchers, worked 5⅓ innings.
The previous two games, the Padres quilted together nine innings using four pitchers who have been part of their starting rotation this season.
Saturday, two erstwhile starters combined for the equivalent of a quality start. Friday was more of a traditional bullpen game.
It will be something of a predetermined mishmash going forward, dependent on who is rested and the opposing lineup.
That is, it will be “the norm … until we get some reinforcements or find guys that can handle that traditional starting role,” according to Stammen.
That means when they add starting pitching at the trade deadline and/or when Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta return.
For now, Buehler and Michael King will make up what is essentially a two-man rotation with every other pitcher comprising an 11-man bullpen.
King, who has 10 of the Padres’ 18 quality starts, will start tomorrow against the Rockies. By Wednesday, Randy Vásquez and Germán Márquez should be ready to go. JP Sears will be available Wednesday.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla talked back in June about getting “creative” with the pitching staff.
The Padres used openers on and off for a while. For much of the past month, most starters had what could be called short leashes.
Now it is all arms on deck. The idea is that they can mix and match, using pitchers in more favorable matchups.
Going with a traditional rotation had become untenable.
The Padres starters’ 4.69 ERA ranked 27th in the majors going into the series against the Marlins.
Their 18 quality starts are one more than the MLB-worst Rockies.
The Padres trailed in the first or second inning eight times in the 10 games leading up to Saturday.
They are tied with the Angels for the eighth-fewest games in which their starter went at least five innings and allowed two or fewer runs.
They had gotten five innings from a starter just 12 times in the 32 games leading up to this series.
Their relievers were getting worn down from the extra workload at the same time, as most of them were being forced to work in higher-leverage situations than intended because Jason Adam has been on the injured list since June 28 and Jeremiah Estrada has been on the IL since June 5.
The desperation of this plan cannot be denied.
The Padres are not doing this because they think it is ideal. They are doing it because they have run out of options.
And because they have options.
Their 11-man bullpen is unique. Niebla wondered aloud yesterday if there has ever been a bullpen with as many starting pitchers in it.
And the Padres should not have to juggle innings to this extent for long. Regardless of whether Preller goes for another blockbuster trade deadline, he has to add pitching just to fill enough innings to get the Padres through the season.
Plus, they expect an infusion from within.
Reinforcements coming?
The Padres’ optimism regarding their shelved pitchers has grown.
Musgrove threw 23 pitches and Nick Pivetta 20 while working the equivalent of one inning apiece in live batting practice against minor-league hitters on Friday in Peoria, Ariz.
They both threw breaking pitches in addition to fastballs, and the plan is for them to do a live batting practice again this week, likely on Wednesday.
That could put them on track to return in the latter half of August, provided there are no setbacks.
They could begin their rehab assignments as soon as next week. That would give them time to make three or even four rehab starts and return around Aug. 22 to 25.
Both right-handers, who were expected to be anchors in the rotation, are coming back from elbow issues.
Musgrove was sidelined in spring training due to discomfort arising from a lack of cartilage in his elbow. Pivetta was removed from his fourth start of the season with what the Padres are calling an elbow flexor strain.
The Padres believe they need at least one of the two back to form by September if they are going to make a playoff run.
And the bullpen …
The expectation is that Estrada (right knee inflammation) returns this week with David Morgan (left knee inflammation) potentially coming back in mid-August and Jason Adam (right shoulder strain) in late August.
Since June 30, the day after Adam last pitched, the bullpen has a 5.47 ERA. That is up from 3.89 through June 29.
Another bounceback
Buehler walked the first two batters in the second inning, and both scored. Kyle Stowers led off the third with a home run to the second deck beyond right field.
The Padres were down 3-0, and Buehler looked shaky.
None of the next 10 Marlins batters got the ball out of the infield. Buehler’s final out in the fifth came on his seventh strikeout, matching a career high.
A single flared to left field by Xavier Edwards with one out in the sixth inning ended Buehler’s day.
To optimize the way they are using the rest of their staff, Buehler and King need to give the Padres length.
“Great job by him,” Niebla said. “He’s going to have to continue doing that. If he does, we’re going to be all right.”
It was the second straight start Buehler did almost the same thing. Tuesday in Atlanta, he walked three batters in a two-run second inning and then allowed one more hit and walked on more batter while getting through 5⅔ innings.
The kind of mentality it takes to turn around an outing that was going so poorly is the same mentality that made it impossible for Buehler to be all that pleased with what he did yesterday.
“I mean, listen, that’s my job now — keep us in games,” he said. “I think on great days, I’ll give up less runs, right?”
But he was pragmatic.
“I think there is a part of it that you have to start going, ‘OK, I’m not trying to throw seven shutout every day,’” he said. “I’m trying to enjoy these ones and team wins and kind of take some of the performance stuff out of it a little bit. All in all, I got into the sixth, which is kind of the goal now, and we won. … I understand we’re in a situation where we’re trying to win every game, and (being) a piece of that is my job and what I’m here to do.”
Dirt vs. grass
With two outs in the seventh inning of a tie game on Friday, Stowers lined a ball to right field that Fernando Tatis Jr. ran 86 feet at a top speed of 27.7 feet per second to chase down near the corner. Tatis stopped himself after two steps, turned back and fired a throw into second base.
Stowers rounded first base and retreated. What had seemed an almost certain double off the bat was a single.
And what would have been a run was not.
Stowers could only get to third base when Heriberto Hernandez followed him to the plate and doubled to left field and Morejón replaced Bradgley Rodriguez and got the final out of the inning.
This is the kind of play the Padres miss when Tatis is playing in the infield and what they will weigh in the future when considering moving him back there.
Rare is the player who could have gotten to Stowers’ hit as quickly and rarer is the player who also possesses the ability to stop himself and get rid of the ball as quickly as Tatis. And just a few fingers are needed to count the players who have that speed and athleticism plus an arm as strong as Tatis’.
But then, Tatis made spectacular plays regularly at shortstop his first three seasons in the major leagues. And this season, he walked in from the grass to play second base for the first time and took just a couple weeks to start playing that position as if he had been there for years.
“He’s a really good player and impacts the game no matter where he’s at,” Stammen said.
It is not a secret Tatis would like to be back “on the dirt,” as he often refers to the infield.
“We just all know we’re missing out,” he said Saturday while smiling wide.
There are, at best, half as many opportunities to make plays in the outfield. In Friday’s game, which the Padres won 4-2 when Luis Rengifo hit a two-run homer in the half-inning after Tatis limited Stowers to a single, Tatis had one ball hit his direction. Cronenworth had six balls hit his way at second base (two pop flies and four grounders).
The chances to make an impactful play in the outfield, as Tatis did Friday, are even fewer.
“The toughest part is just to be ready,” Tatis said. “You just don’t get many of those. It’s one every five games. It dictates not the best focus, but you’re still in the game.”
Further, Tatis thinks he is a better hitter when playing in the infield. (He is batting .254/.329/.363 in 281 plate appearances when in the game as a right fielder and .325/.386/461 in 171 plate appearances when playing second base this season.)
“You’re just engaged during every play, every pitch,” he said of playing the infield.
Most in the Padres organization agree that the focus required being in the infield and the challenge of playing a new position was beneficial for Tatis at the plate.
However, they have a second baseman and a shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) who are more than adequate defensively. Versatile infielder Sung-Mun Song is also highly capable with his glove.
This may not always be the case, and Tatis moving back to the infield full-time is a real possibility in the future.
“You’re always playing out those things,” Stammen said. “And those are offseason conversations that are maybe worth talking about where someone plays and where you want them for the next season.”
Tidbits
Ty France has at least one hit in 13 of his past 14 games and at least two hits in nine of those. He is batting .407 with a 1.267 OPS in that span (second in the major leagues) and .343 with an 1.100 OPS in 29 games since June 19 (fourth in the major leagues). I wrote a story Friday (here) that included France’s thoughts on the possibility he could be traded at the deadline for a third consecutive season.
Cronenworth was 3-for-5 and scored twice yesterday. After going hitless in his first four at-bats following a two-month stay on the concussion IL, he is batting .324/.398/.446 in his past 21 games. He was batting .144 with a .468 OPS when he went on the IL. He has those numbers up to .217 and .616.
The Padres have scored at least five runs in nine of their past 12 games. They had scored that many runs in 10 of their previous 22 games.
The Padres’ 2.00 ERA (six earned runs, 27 innings) against the Marlins was their lowest in a series this season.
Rengifo went 0-for-2 in his first game with the Padres on July 10. He has hit safely in his eight games since and after going 2-for-4 with a double yesterday is batting .464 (13-for-28) with a .516 on-base percentage during the streak.
Rengifo is the 15th player in franchise history to have at least 13 hits in his first nine games with the Padres.
Machado is batting .317 with a .373 OBP during a 15-game on-base streak.
Tatis was 0-for-13 in Miami. It was the first time he has gone hitless in a series this season.
Tatis did extend his on-base streak to 10 games. He is reaching base at a .396 clip during the streak.
The Padres struck out looking a season-high six times yesterday.
All right, that’s it for me.
No game today. So no newsletter tomorrow.
I will have a story looking ahead to the trade deadline on our Padres page later today.
The next newsletter will be in your inbox Wednesday morning.
Talk to you then.